Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
medRxiv. 5 February 2025; DOI:10.1101/2025.02.03.25321543
Chandna A, Koshiaris C, Mahajan R, Ahmad RA, Anh DTV, et al.
medRxiv. 5 February 2025; DOI:10.1101/2025.02.03.25321543
BACKGROUND
Circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation risk stratify infection syndromes agnostic to disease aetiology. However, their utility in children presenting from the community remains unclear.
METHODS
This study recruited children aged 1-59 months presenting with community-acquired acute febrile illnesses to seven hospitals in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Viet Nam. Clinical parameters and biomarker concentrations were measured at presentation. The outcome measure was death or receipt of vital organ support within two days of enrolment. Prognostic performance of endothelial (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1) and immune (CHI3L1, CRP, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, PCT, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1, suPAR) activation markers, WHO Danger Signs, and two validated severity scores (LqSOFA, SIRS) was compared.
RESULTS
3,423 participants were recruited. 133 met the outcome (weighted prevalence: 0.34%; 95% CI 0.28-0.41). sTREM-1 exhibited highest prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.86; 95% CI 0.82-0.90), outperforming WHO Danger Signs (AUC 0.75; 95% CI 0.70-0.80; p < 0.001), LqSOFA (AUC 0.74; 95% CI 0.70-0.78; p < 0.001), and SIRS (AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.68; p < 0.001). Discrimination of immune and endothelial activation markers was particularly strong for children who deteriorated later in the course of their illness. Compared to WHO Danger Signs, an sTREM-1-based triage strategy improved recognition of children at risk of progression to life-threatening infection (sensitivity: 0.80 vs. 0.72), while maintaining comparable specificity (0.81 vs. 0.79).
CONCLUSIONS
Measuring circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation may help earlier recognition of febrile children at risk of poor outcomes in resource-constrained community settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 9 September 2021; Volume 20 (Issue 1); 366.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-021-03886-w
Taylor WRJ, Hoglund RM, Peerawaranun P, Nguyen TN, Hien TT, et al.
Malar J. 9 September 2021; Volume 20 (Issue 1); 366.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-021-03886-w
BACKGROUND
In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.
METHODS
The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.
RESULTS
The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.
CONCLUSION
The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.
In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.
METHODS
The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.
RESULTS
The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.
CONCLUSION
The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Med. 12 June 2018; Volume 15 (Issue 6); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002579
Kloprogge F, Workman L, Borrmann S, Tekete M, Lefevre G, et al.
PLOS Med. 12 June 2018; Volume 15 (Issue 6); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002579
The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Mol Biol Evol. 1 December 2005; Volume 22 (Issue 12); DOI:10.1093/molbev/msi235
Anderson TJC, Nair SA, Sudimack D, Williams JT, Mayxay M, et al.
Mol Biol Evol. 1 December 2005; Volume 22 (Issue 12); DOI:10.1093/molbev/msi235
Loci targeted by directional selection are expected to show elevated geographical population structure relative to neutral loci, and a flurry of recent papers have used this rationale to search for genome regions involved in adaptation. Studies of functional mutations that are known to be under selection are particularly useful for assessing the utility of this approach. Antimalarial drug treatment regimes vary considerably between countries in Southeast Asia selecting for local adaptation at parasite loci underlying resistance. We compared the population structure revealed by 10 nonsynonymous mutations (nonsynonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms [nsSNPs]) in four loci that are known to be involved in antimalarial drug resistance, with patterns revealed by 10 synonymous mutations (synonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms [sSNPs]) in housekeeping genes or genes of unknown function in 755 Plasmodium falciparum infections collected from 13 populations in six Southeast Asian countries. Allele frequencies at known nsSNPs underlying resistance varied markedly between locations (F(ST) = 0.18-0.66), with the highest frequencies on the Thailand-Burma border and the lowest frequencies in neighboring Lao PDR. In contrast, we found weak but significant geographic structure (F(ST) = 0-0.14) for 8 of 10 sSNPs. Importantly, all 10 nsSNPs showed significantly higher F(ST) (P < 8 x 10(-5)) than simulated neutral expectations based on observed F(ST) values in the putatively neutral sSNPs. This result was unaffected by the methods used to estimate allele frequencies or the number of populations used in the simulations. Given that dense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) maps and rapid SNP assay methods are now available for P. falciparum, comparing genetic differentiation across the genome may provide a valuable aid to identifying parasite loci underlying local adaptation to drug treatment regimes or other selective forces. However, the high proportion of polymorphic sites that appear to be under balancing selection (or linked to selected sites) in the P. falciparum genome violates the central assumption that selected sites are rare, which complicates identification of outlier loci, and suggests that caution is needed when using this approach.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network Methodology Study Group, Dahal P, Simpson JA, Abdulla S, Achan J, et al.
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
BACKGROUND
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Protocol > Research Protocol
BMJ Open. 25 January 2021; Volume 11 (Issue 1); e045826.; DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045826
Chandna A, Aderie EM, Ahmad R, Arguni E, Ashley EA, et al.
BMJ Open. 25 January 2021; Volume 11 (Issue 1); e045826.; DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045826
INTRODUCTION
In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS
This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION
The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT04285021.
In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS
This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION
The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT04285021.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Biol Sci. 2 June 2005; Volume 272 (Issue 1568); 1153-1161.; DOI:10.1098/rspb.2004.3026
Nash D, Nair SA, Mayxay M, Newton PN, Guthmann JP, et al.
Proc Biol Sci. 2 June 2005; Volume 272 (Issue 1568); 1153-1161.; DOI:10.1098/rspb.2004.3026
Neutral mutations may hitchhike to high frequency when they are situated close to sites under positive selection, generating local reductions in genetic diversity. This process is thought to be an important determinant of levels of genomic variation in natural populations. The size of genome regions affected by genetic hitchhiking is expected to be dependent on the strength of selection, but there is little empirical data supporting this prediction. Here, we compare microsatellite variation around two drug resistance genes (chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt), chromosome 7, and dihydrofolate reductase (dhfr), chromosome 4) in malaria parasite populations exposed to strong (Thailand) or weak selection (Laos) by anti-malarial drugs. In each population, we examined the point mutations underlying resistance and length variation at 22 (chromosome 4) or 25 (chromosome 7) microsatellite markers across these chromosomes. All parasites from Thailand carried the K76T mutation in pfcrt conferring resistance to chloroquine (CQ) and 2-4 mutations in dhfr conferring resistance to pyrimethamine. By contrast, we found both wild-type and resistant alleles at both genes in Laos. There were dramatic differences in the extent of hitchhiking in the two countries. The size of genome regions affected was smaller in Laos than in Thailand. We observed significant reduction in variation relative to sensitive parasites for 34-64 kb (2-4 cM) in Laos on chromosome 4, compared with 98-137 kb (6-8 cM) in Thailand. Similarly, on chromosome 7, we observed reduced variation for 34-69 kb (2-4 cM) around pfcrt in Laos, but for 195-268 kb (11-16 cM) in Thailand. Reduction in genetic variation was also less extreme in Laos than in Thailand. Most loci were monomorphic in a 12 kb region surrounding both genes on resistant chromosomes from Thailand, whereas in Laos, even loci immediately proximal to selective sites showed some variation on resistant chromosomes. Finally, linkage disequilibrium (LD) decayed more rapidly around resistant pfcrt and dhfr alleles from Laos than from Thailand. These results demonstrate that different realizations of the same selective sweeps may vary considerably in size and shape, in a manner broadly consistent with selection history. From a practical perspective, genomic regions containing resistance genes may be most effectively located by genome-wide association in populations exposed to strong drug selection. However, the lower levels of LD surrounding resistance alleles in populations under weak selection may simplify identification of functional mutations.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 1 November 2004; Volume 48 (Issue 11); DOI:10.1128/AAC.48.11.4271-4280.2004
Stepniewska K, Taylor WRJ, Mayxay M, Price RN, Smithuis FM, et al.
Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 1 November 2004; Volume 48 (Issue 11); DOI:10.1128/AAC.48.11.4271-4280.2004
To determine the optimum duration of follow-up for the assessment of drug efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, 96 trial arms from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with follow-up of 28 days or longer that were conducted between 1990 and 2003 were analyzed. These trials enrolled 13,772 patients, and participating patients comprised 23% of all patients enrolled in RCTs over the past 40 years; 61 (64%) trial arms were conducted in areas where the rate of malaria transmission was low, and 58 (50%) trial arms were supported by parasite genotyping to distinguish true recrudescences from reinfections. The median overall failure rate reported was 10% (range, 0 to 47%). The widely used day 14 assessment had a sensitivity of between 0 and 37% in identifying treatment failures and had no predictive value. Assessment at day 28 had a sensitivity of 66% overall (28 to 100% in individual trials) but could be used to predict the true failure rate if either parasite genotyping was performed (r(2) = 0.94) or if the entomological inoculation rate was known. In the assessment of drug efficacy against falciparum malaria, 28 days should be the minimum period of follow-up.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 29 July 2009; Volume 4 (Issue 7); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0006358
Zwang J, Ashley EA, Karema C, D'Alessandro U, Smithuis FM, et al.
PLOS One. 29 July 2009; Volume 4 (Issue 7); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0006358
BACKGROUND: The fixed dose antimalarial combination of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is a promising new artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). We present an individual patient data analysis of efficacy and tolerability in acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria, from seven published randomized clinical trials conducted in Africa and South East Asia using a predefined in-vivo protocol. Comparator drugs were mefloquine-artesunate (MAS3) in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia; artemether-lumefantrine in Uganda; and amodiaquine+sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and artesunate+amodiaquine in Rwanda. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In total 3,547 patients were enrolled: 1,814 patients (32% children under five years) received DP and 1,733 received a comparator antimalarial at 12 different sites and were followed for 28-63 days. There was no significant heterogeneity between trials. DP was well tolerated with 1.7% early vomiting. There were less adverse events with DP in children and adults compared to MAS3 except for diarrhea; ORs (95%CI) 2.74 (2.13 to 3.51) and 3.11 (2.31 to 4.18), respectively. DP treatment resulted in a rapid clearance of fever and parasitaemia. The PCR genotype corrected efficacy at Day 28 of DP assessed by survival analysis was 98.7% (95%CI 97.6-99.8). DP was superior to the comparator drugs in protecting against both P.falciparum recurrence and recrudescence (P = 0.001, weighted by site). There was no difference between DP and MAS3 in treating P. vivax co-infections and in suppressing the first relapse (median interval to P. vivax recurrence: 6 weeks). Children under 5 y were at higher risk of recurrence for both infections. The proportion of patients developing gametocytaemia (P = 0.002, weighted by site) and the subsequent gametocyte carriage rates were higher with DP (11/1000 person gametocyte week, PGW) than MAS3 (6/1000 PGW, P = 0.001, weighted by site). CONCLUSIONS: DP proved a safe, well tolerated, and highly effective treatment of P.falciparum malaria in Asia and Africa, but the effect on gametocyte carriage was inferior to that of MAS3.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Int J Health Geogr. 24 October 2016; Volume 15 (Issue 1); 37.; DOI:10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6
Grist EP, Fleqq JA, Humphreys G, Mas IS, Anderson TJC, et al.
Int J Health Geogr. 24 October 2016; Volume 15 (Issue 1); 37.; DOI:10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6
BACKGROUND
Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.
METHODS
The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.
RESULTS
The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.
CONCLUSION
This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.
Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.
METHODS
The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.
RESULTS
The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.
CONCLUSION
This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.