Risk stratification of childhood infection using host markers of immune and endothelial activation: A multi-country prospective cohort study in Asia (Spot Sepsis)

BACKGROUND

Circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation risk stratify infection syndromes agnostic to disease aetiology. However, their utility in children presenting from the community remains unclear.

METHODS

This study recruited children aged 1-59 months presenting with community-acquired acute febrile illnesses to seven hospitals in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Viet Nam. Clinical parameters and biomarker concentrations were measured at presentation. The outcome measure was death or receipt of vital organ support within two days of enrolment. Prognostic performance of endothelial (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1) and immune (CHI3L1, CRP, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, PCT, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1, suPAR) activation markers, WHO Danger Signs, and two validated severity scores (LqSOFA, SIRS) was compared.

RESULTS

3,423 participants were recruited. 133 met the outcome (weighted prevalence: 0.34%; 95% CI 0.28-0.41). sTREM-1 exhibited highest prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.86; 95% CI 0.82-0.90), outperforming WHO Danger Signs (AUC 0.75; 95% CI 0.70-0.80; p < 0.001), LqSOFA (AUC 0.74; 95% CI 0.70-0.78; p < 0.001), and SIRS (AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.68; p < 0.001). Discrimination of immune and endothelial activation markers was particularly strong for children who deteriorated later in the course of their illness. Compared to WHO Danger Signs, an sTREM-1-based triage strategy improved recognition of children at risk of progression to life-threatening infection (sensitivity: 0.80 vs. 0.72), while maintaining comparable specificity (0.81 vs. 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Measuring circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation may help earlier recognition of febrile children at risk of poor outcomes in resource-constrained community settings.