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Journal Article > Research

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia

Grist EP, Fleqq JA, Humphreys G, Mas IS, Anderson TJC, Ashley EA, Day NPJ, Dhorda M, Dondorp AM, Faiz MA, Gething PW, Hien TT, Hlaing TM, Imwong M, Kindermans JM, Maude RJ, Mayxay M, Menard D, Nair SA, Nosten F, Newton PN, Price RN, Pukrittayakamee S, Takala-Harrison S, Smithuis FM, Nguyen NT, Tun KT, White NJ, Witkowski B, Woodrow CJ, Fairhurst RM, Sibley CH, Guerin PJ
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Abstract
BACKGROUND
Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.

METHODS
The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.

RESULTS
The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

CONCLUSION
This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.
DOI
10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6
Published Date
24-Oct-2016
PubMed ID
27776514
Languages
English
Journal
International Journal of Health Geographics
Volume / Issue / Pages
Volume 15, Issue 1, Pages 37
Issue Date
24-Oct-2016
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