Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
medRxiv. 5 February 2025; DOI:10.1101/2025.02.03.25321543
Chandna A, Koshiaris C, Mahajan R, Ahmad RA, Anh DTV, et al.
medRxiv. 5 February 2025; DOI:10.1101/2025.02.03.25321543
BACKGROUND
Circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation risk stratify infection syndromes agnostic to disease aetiology. However, their utility in children presenting from the community remains unclear.
METHODS
This study recruited children aged 1-59 months presenting with community-acquired acute febrile illnesses to seven hospitals in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Viet Nam. Clinical parameters and biomarker concentrations were measured at presentation. The outcome measure was death or receipt of vital organ support within two days of enrolment. Prognostic performance of endothelial (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1) and immune (CHI3L1, CRP, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, PCT, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1, suPAR) activation markers, WHO Danger Signs, and two validated severity scores (LqSOFA, SIRS) was compared.
RESULTS
3,423 participants were recruited. 133 met the outcome (weighted prevalence: 0.34%; 95% CI 0.28-0.41). sTREM-1 exhibited highest prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.86; 95% CI 0.82-0.90), outperforming WHO Danger Signs (AUC 0.75; 95% CI 0.70-0.80; p < 0.001), LqSOFA (AUC 0.74; 95% CI 0.70-0.78; p < 0.001), and SIRS (AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.68; p < 0.001). Discrimination of immune and endothelial activation markers was particularly strong for children who deteriorated later in the course of their illness. Compared to WHO Danger Signs, an sTREM-1-based triage strategy improved recognition of children at risk of progression to life-threatening infection (sensitivity: 0.80 vs. 0.72), while maintaining comparable specificity (0.81 vs. 0.79).
CONCLUSIONS
Measuring circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation may help earlier recognition of febrile children at risk of poor outcomes in resource-constrained community settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 17 July 2013; Volume 12 (Issue 1); 250.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-12-250
Schramm B, Valeh P, Baudin E, Mazinda CS, Smith R, et al.
Malar J. 17 July 2013; Volume 12 (Issue 1); 250.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-12-250
BACKGROUND
Safety surveillance of widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is essential, but tolerability data in the over five years age group are largely anecdotal.
METHODS
Two open-label, randomized trials were conducted in Nimba County, Liberia: i) the main tolerability trial with 1,000 Plasmodium falciparum malaria patients aged over five years (Study-T), and, ii) an efficacy trial with a secondary objective of collecting tolerability data among 300 children age six to 59 months (Study-E). In both studies patients were randomized to fixed-dose artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ Winthrop®) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL, Coartem®), respectively. Clinical- and laboratory-adverse events (AEs) were recorded until day 28.
RESULTS
Study-T: most patients experienced at least one AE. Severe AEs were few, primarily asymptomatic blood system disorders or increased liver enzyme values. No treatment or study discontinuation occurred. Mild or moderate fatigue (39.8% vs 16.3%, p < 0.001), vomiting (7.1% vs 1.6%, p < 0.001), nausea (3.2% vs 1.0%, p = 0.01), and anaemia (14.9% vs 9.8%, p = 0.01) were more frequently recorded in the ASAQ versus AL arm. Study-E: mild or moderate AEs were common, including anaemia, fatigue, vomiting or diarrhoea. The few severe events were asymptomatic blood system disorders and four clinical events (pneumonia, malaria, vomiting and stomatitis).
CONCLUSION
Both ASAQ and AL were well tolerated in patients of all age groups. No unexpected AEs occurred. Certain mild or moderate AEs were more frequent in the ASAQ arm. Standardised safety surveillance should continue for all forms of ACT.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
The protocols were registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the identifier numbers ISRCTN40020296, ISRCTN51688713, (http://www.controlled-trials.com).
Safety surveillance of widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is essential, but tolerability data in the over five years age group are largely anecdotal.
METHODS
Two open-label, randomized trials were conducted in Nimba County, Liberia: i) the main tolerability trial with 1,000 Plasmodium falciparum malaria patients aged over five years (Study-T), and, ii) an efficacy trial with a secondary objective of collecting tolerability data among 300 children age six to 59 months (Study-E). In both studies patients were randomized to fixed-dose artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ Winthrop®) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL, Coartem®), respectively. Clinical- and laboratory-adverse events (AEs) were recorded until day 28.
RESULTS
Study-T: most patients experienced at least one AE. Severe AEs were few, primarily asymptomatic blood system disorders or increased liver enzyme values. No treatment or study discontinuation occurred. Mild or moderate fatigue (39.8% vs 16.3%, p < 0.001), vomiting (7.1% vs 1.6%, p < 0.001), nausea (3.2% vs 1.0%, p = 0.01), and anaemia (14.9% vs 9.8%, p = 0.01) were more frequently recorded in the ASAQ versus AL arm. Study-E: mild or moderate AEs were common, including anaemia, fatigue, vomiting or diarrhoea. The few severe events were asymptomatic blood system disorders and four clinical events (pneumonia, malaria, vomiting and stomatitis).
CONCLUSION
Both ASAQ and AL were well tolerated in patients of all age groups. No unexpected AEs occurred. Certain mild or moderate AEs were more frequent in the ASAQ arm. Standardised safety surveillance should continue for all forms of ACT.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
The protocols were registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the identifier numbers ISRCTN40020296, ISRCTN51688713, (http://www.controlled-trials.com).
Journal Article > ResearchAbstract
PLOS One. 1 January 2012; Volume 7 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0030281
Dhorda M, Piola P, Nyehangane D, Tumwebaze B, Nalusaji A, et al.
PLOS One. 1 January 2012; Volume 7 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0030281
Abstract. Improved laboratory diagnosis is critical to reduce the burden of malaria in pregnancy. Peripheral blood smears appear less sensitive than Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for placental malaria infections in studies conducted at delivery. In this study, 81 women in Uganda in the second or third trimester of pregnancy were followed-up until delivery. At each visit, peripheral blood was tested by blood smear, RDT, and nested species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Sensitivity and specificity of the tests was calculated with PCR, which detected 22 infections of P. falciparum, as the gold standard. The sensitivity and specificity of blood smears were 36.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 18.0-59.2%) and 99.6% (95% CI = 97.7-100%), respectively. The corresponding values for RDT were 31.8% (95% CI = 14.7-54.9%) and 100% (95% CI = 98.3-100%). The RDTs could replace blood smears for diagnosis of malaria in pregnancy by virtue of their relative ease of use. Field-based sensitive tests for malaria in pregnancy are urgently needed.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 27 October 2009; Volume 8; 241.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-8-241
Ashley EA, Touabi M, Ahrer M, Hutagalung R, Htun K, et al.
Malar J. 27 October 2009; Volume 8; 241.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-8-241
BACKGROUND: In areas where non-falciparum malaria is common rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) capable of distinguishing malaria species reliably are needed. Such tests are often based on the detection of parasite lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH).
METHODS: In Dawei, southern Myanmar, three pLDH based RDTs (CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan), CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan, Pf) and OptiMAL-IT)were evaluated in patients presenting with clinically suspected malaria. Each RDT was read independently by two readers. A subset of patients with microscopically confirmed malaria had their RDTs repeated on days 2, 7 and then weekly until negative. At the end of the study, samples of study batches were sent for heat stability testing.
RESULTS: Between August and November 2007, 1004 patients aged between 1 and 93 years were enrolled in the study. Slide microscopy (the reference standard) diagnosed 213 Plasmodium vivax (Pv) monoinfections, 98 Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) mono-infections and no malaria in 650 cases. The sensitivities (sens) and specificities (spec), of the RDTs for the detection of malaria were- CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan) test: sens 89.1% [CI95 84.2-92.6], spec 97.6% [CI95 96.5-98.4]. OptiMal-IT: Pf+/- other species detection: sens 95.2% [CI95 87.5-98.2], spec 94.7% [CI95 93.3-95.8]; non-Pf detection alone: sens 89.6% [CI95 83.6-93.6], spec 96.5% [CI95 94.8-97.7]. CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan, Pf): Pf+/- other species: sens 93.5% [CI95 85.4-97.3], spec 97.4% [95.9-98.3]; non-Pf: sens 78.5% [CI95 71.1-84.4], spec 97.8% [CI95 96.3-98.7]. Inter-observer agreement was excellent for all tests (kappa > 0.9). The median time for the RDTs to become negative was two days for the CareStart Malaria tests and seven days for OptiMAL-IT. Tests were heat stable up to 90 days except for OptiMAL-IT (Pf specific pLDH stable to day 20 at 35 degrees C).
CONCLUSION: None of the pLDH-based RDTs evaluated was able to detect non-falciparum malaria with high sensitivity, particularly at low parasitaemias. OptiMAL-IT performed best overall and would perform best in an area of high malaria prevalence among screened fever cases. However, heat stability was unacceptable and the number of steps to perform this test is a significant drawback in the field. A reliable, heat-stable, highly sensitive RDT, capable of diagnosing all Plasmodium species has yet to be identified.
METHODS: In Dawei, southern Myanmar, three pLDH based RDTs (CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan), CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan, Pf) and OptiMAL-IT)were evaluated in patients presenting with clinically suspected malaria. Each RDT was read independently by two readers. A subset of patients with microscopically confirmed malaria had their RDTs repeated on days 2, 7 and then weekly until negative. At the end of the study, samples of study batches were sent for heat stability testing.
RESULTS: Between August and November 2007, 1004 patients aged between 1 and 93 years were enrolled in the study. Slide microscopy (the reference standard) diagnosed 213 Plasmodium vivax (Pv) monoinfections, 98 Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) mono-infections and no malaria in 650 cases. The sensitivities (sens) and specificities (spec), of the RDTs for the detection of malaria were- CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan) test: sens 89.1% [CI95 84.2-92.6], spec 97.6% [CI95 96.5-98.4]. OptiMal-IT: Pf+/- other species detection: sens 95.2% [CI95 87.5-98.2], spec 94.7% [CI95 93.3-95.8]; non-Pf detection alone: sens 89.6% [CI95 83.6-93.6], spec 96.5% [CI95 94.8-97.7]. CareStart Malaria pLDH (Pan, Pf): Pf+/- other species: sens 93.5% [CI95 85.4-97.3], spec 97.4% [95.9-98.3]; non-Pf: sens 78.5% [CI95 71.1-84.4], spec 97.8% [CI95 96.3-98.7]. Inter-observer agreement was excellent for all tests (kappa > 0.9). The median time for the RDTs to become negative was two days for the CareStart Malaria tests and seven days for OptiMAL-IT. Tests were heat stable up to 90 days except for OptiMAL-IT (Pf specific pLDH stable to day 20 at 35 degrees C).
CONCLUSION: None of the pLDH-based RDTs evaluated was able to detect non-falciparum malaria with high sensitivity, particularly at low parasitaemias. OptiMAL-IT performed best overall and would perform best in an area of high malaria prevalence among screened fever cases. However, heat stability was unacceptable and the number of steps to perform this test is a significant drawback in the field. A reliable, heat-stable, highly sensitive RDT, capable of diagnosing all Plasmodium species has yet to be identified.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 17 July 2013; Volume 12 (Issue 1); 251.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-12-251
Schramm B, Valeh P, Baudin E, Mazinda CS, Smith R, et al.
Malar J. 17 July 2013; Volume 12 (Issue 1); 251.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-12-251
BACKGROUND
Prospective efficacy monitoring of anti-malarial treatments is imperative for timely detection of resistance development. The in vivo efficacy of artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) fixed-dose combination (FDC) was compared to that of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) among children aged six to 59 months in Nimba County, Liberia, where Plasmodium falciparum malaria is endemic and efficacy data are scarce.
METHODS
An open-label, randomized controlled non-inferiority trial compared the genotyping adjusted day 42 cure rates of ASAQ FDC (ASAQ Winthrop®) to AL (Coartem®) in 300 children aged six to 59 months with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Inclusion was between December 2008 and May 2009. Randomization (1:1) was to a three-day observed oral regimen (ASAQ: once a day; AL: twice a day, given with fatty food). Day 7 desethylamodiaquine and lumefantrine blood-concentrations were also measured.
RESULTS
The day 42 genotyping-adjusted cure rate estimates were 97.3% [95% CI: 91.6-99.1] for ASAQ and 94.2% [88.1-97.2] for AL (Kaplan-Meier survival estimates). The difference in day 42 cure rates was -3.1% [upper limit 95% CI: 1.2%]. These results were confirmed by observed proportion of patients cured at day 42 on the per-protocol population. Parasite clearance was 100% (ASAQ) and 99.3% (AL) on day 3. The probability to remain free of re-infection was 0.55 [95% CI: 0.46-0.63] (ASAQ) and 0.66 [0.57-0.73] (AL) (p = 0.017).
CONCLUSIONS
Both ASAQ and AL were highly efficacious and ASAQ was non-inferior to AL. The proportion of patients with re-infection was high in both arms in this highly endemic setting. In 2010, ASAQ FDC was adopted as the first-line national treatment in Liberia. Continuous efficacy monitoring is recommended.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
The protocols were registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the identifier numbers ISRCTN51688713, ISRCTN40020296.
Prospective efficacy monitoring of anti-malarial treatments is imperative for timely detection of resistance development. The in vivo efficacy of artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) fixed-dose combination (FDC) was compared to that of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) among children aged six to 59 months in Nimba County, Liberia, where Plasmodium falciparum malaria is endemic and efficacy data are scarce.
METHODS
An open-label, randomized controlled non-inferiority trial compared the genotyping adjusted day 42 cure rates of ASAQ FDC (ASAQ Winthrop®) to AL (Coartem®) in 300 children aged six to 59 months with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Inclusion was between December 2008 and May 2009. Randomization (1:1) was to a three-day observed oral regimen (ASAQ: once a day; AL: twice a day, given with fatty food). Day 7 desethylamodiaquine and lumefantrine blood-concentrations were also measured.
RESULTS
The day 42 genotyping-adjusted cure rate estimates were 97.3% [95% CI: 91.6-99.1] for ASAQ and 94.2% [88.1-97.2] for AL (Kaplan-Meier survival estimates). The difference in day 42 cure rates was -3.1% [upper limit 95% CI: 1.2%]. These results were confirmed by observed proportion of patients cured at day 42 on the per-protocol population. Parasite clearance was 100% (ASAQ) and 99.3% (AL) on day 3. The probability to remain free of re-infection was 0.55 [95% CI: 0.46-0.63] (ASAQ) and 0.66 [0.57-0.73] (AL) (p = 0.017).
CONCLUSIONS
Both ASAQ and AL were highly efficacious and ASAQ was non-inferior to AL. The proportion of patients with re-infection was high in both arms in this highly endemic setting. In 2010, ASAQ FDC was adopted as the first-line national treatment in Liberia. Continuous efficacy monitoring is recommended.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
The protocols were registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the identifier numbers ISRCTN51688713, ISRCTN40020296.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1 September 2007; Volume 77 (Issue 3); 447-450.
Mytton OT, Ashley EA, Peto L, Price RN, La Y, et al.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1 September 2007; Volume 77 (Issue 3); 447-450.
Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) could become a leading fixed combination malaria treatment worldwide. Although there is accumulating evidence of efficacy and safety from clinical trials, data on cardiotoxicity are limited. In two randomized controlled trials in Thailand, 56 patients had ECGs performed before treatment, 4 hours after the first dose, and 4 hours after the last dose. The mean (95% CI) changes in QTc interval (Bazett's correction) were 2 (-6 to 9) ms and 14 (7 to 21) ms, respectively. These small changes on the third day of treatment are similar to those observed elsewhere in the convalescent phase following antimalarial treatment with drugs known to have no cardiac effects and are therefore likely to result from recovery from acute malaria and not the treatment given. At therapeutic doses, DP does not have clinically significant effects on the electrocardiogram.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 5 September 2016; Volume 15 (Issue 1); 452.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-016-1503-3
Otienoburu SD, Maiga-Ascofare O, Schramm B, Jullien V, Jones JJ, et al.
Malar J. 5 September 2016; Volume 15 (Issue 1); 452.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-016-1503-3
BACKGROUND
Plasmodium falciparum uncomplicated malaria can successfully be treated with an artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However resistance is spreading to the different ACT compounds; the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Studies of P. falciparum polymorphisms associated with drug resistance can provide a useful tool to track resistance and guide treatment policy as well as an in-depth understanding of the development and spread of resistance.
METHODS
The role of P. falciparum molecular markers in selection of reinfections was assessed in an efficacy trial comparing artesunate-amodiaquine fixed-dose combination with artemether-lumefantrine to treat malaria in Nimba County, Liberia 2008-2009. P. falciparum polymorphisms in pfcrt 76, pfmdr1 86, 184 and 1246, and pfmrp1 876 and 1466 were analysed by PCR-RFLP and pyrosequencing.
RESULTS
High baseline prevalence of pfmdr1 1246Y was found in Nimba county (38 %). Pfmdr1 1246Y and pfmdr1 86+184+1246 haplotypes NYY and YYY were selected in reinfections in the artesunate-amodiaquine arm and pfcrt K76, pfmdr1 N86 and pfmdr1 haplotype NFD were selected in artemether-lumefantrine reinfections. Parasites harbouring pfmdr1 1246Y could reinfect earlier after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and parasites carrying pfmdr1 N86 could reinfect at higher lumefantrine concentrations in patients treated with artemether-lumefantrine.
CONCLUSIONS
Although treatment is highly efficacious, selection of molecular markers in reinfections could indicate a decreased sensitivity or tolerance of parasites to the current treatments and the baseline prevalence of molecular markers should be closely monitored. Since individual drug levels and the day of reinfection were demonstrated to be key determinants for selection of reinfections, this data needs to be collected and taken into account for accurate evaluation of molecular markers for anti-malarial treatments.
The protocol for the clinical trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the Identifier Number ISRCTN51688713 on 9 October 2008.
Plasmodium falciparum uncomplicated malaria can successfully be treated with an artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However resistance is spreading to the different ACT compounds; the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Studies of P. falciparum polymorphisms associated with drug resistance can provide a useful tool to track resistance and guide treatment policy as well as an in-depth understanding of the development and spread of resistance.
METHODS
The role of P. falciparum molecular markers in selection of reinfections was assessed in an efficacy trial comparing artesunate-amodiaquine fixed-dose combination with artemether-lumefantrine to treat malaria in Nimba County, Liberia 2008-2009. P. falciparum polymorphisms in pfcrt 76, pfmdr1 86, 184 and 1246, and pfmrp1 876 and 1466 were analysed by PCR-RFLP and pyrosequencing.
RESULTS
High baseline prevalence of pfmdr1 1246Y was found in Nimba county (38 %). Pfmdr1 1246Y and pfmdr1 86+184+1246 haplotypes NYY and YYY were selected in reinfections in the artesunate-amodiaquine arm and pfcrt K76, pfmdr1 N86 and pfmdr1 haplotype NFD were selected in artemether-lumefantrine reinfections. Parasites harbouring pfmdr1 1246Y could reinfect earlier after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and parasites carrying pfmdr1 N86 could reinfect at higher lumefantrine concentrations in patients treated with artemether-lumefantrine.
CONCLUSIONS
Although treatment is highly efficacious, selection of molecular markers in reinfections could indicate a decreased sensitivity or tolerance of parasites to the current treatments and the baseline prevalence of molecular markers should be closely monitored. Since individual drug levels and the day of reinfection were demonstrated to be key determinants for selection of reinfections, this data needs to be collected and taken into account for accurate evaluation of molecular markers for anti-malarial treatments.
The protocol for the clinical trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, under the Identifier Number ISRCTN51688713 on 9 October 2008.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trop Med Int Health. 1 February 2007; Volume 12 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01786.x
Janssens B, Van Herp M, Goubert L, Chan S, Uong S, et al.
Trop Med Int Health. 1 February 2007; Volume 12 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01786.x
OBJECTIVES: To compare the efficacy and tolerability of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQP) with that of a 3-day regimen of mefloquine and artesunate (MAS3) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Cambodia. METHOD: Randomized open-label non-inferiority study over 64 days. RESULTS: Four hundred and sixty-four patients were included in the study. The polymerase chain reaction genotyping-adjusted cure rates on day 63 were 97.5% (95% confidence interval, CI, 93.8-99.3) for DHA-PQP and 97.5% (95% CI, 93.8-99.3) for MAS3, P = 1. There were no serious adverse events, but significantly more episodes of vomiting (P = 0.03), dizziness (P = 0.002), palpitations (P = 0.04), and sleep disorders (P = 0.03) reported in the MAS3 treatment group, consistent with the side-effect profile of mefloquine. CONCLUSIONS: DHA-PQP was as efficacious as MAS3, but much better tolerated, making it more appropriate for use in a routine programme setting. This highly efficacious, safe and more affordable fixed-dose combination could become the treatment of choice for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Cambodia.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Med. 12 June 2018; Volume 15 (Issue 6); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002579
Kloprogge F, Workman L, Borrmann S, Tekete M, Lefevre G, et al.
PLOS Med. 12 June 2018; Volume 15 (Issue 6); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002579
The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network Methodology Study Group, Dahal P, Simpson JA, Abdulla S, Achan J, et al.
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
BACKGROUND
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.