Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Since April 15, 2023, fighting erupted in Sudan between the army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the command of General Mohamed Hamdan Dogolo, known as Hemeti. This war has caused a major humanitarian crisis in Sudan, with violent fighting spreading throughout the country, particularly in Darfur, and aggravating pre-existing inter-community tensions.
By the end of March, almost 30,000 civilians had fled to Chad in search of safety. By September 2023, according to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between military and paramilitary forces had driven more than 420,000 people to flee to Chad in successive waves, of whom around 327,000 had settled in the Ouaddaï province. Chadian refugees and returnees live in very precarious conditions, with limited access to primary healthcare, water and food. Little recent data is available on the mortality, nutritional status, and vaccination coverage of refugee populations in camps in eastern Chad, particularly in Toumtouma, Ourang and Arkoum camps. The results of these surveys are essential for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) to better plan its humanitarian interventions, coordinate effectively with other actors, and communicate about the refugee crisis in eastern Chad.
METHODOLOGY
Three cross-sectional surveys were carried out, the first with systematic random sampling in Toumtouma camp from August 7 to 13, and the next two with cluster random geospatial sampling in Ourang camp from August 17 to 22 and Arkoum camp from August 30 to September 4, 2023. Each survey covered retrospective mortality, frequency and type of violent events experienced, nutritional status of children aged 6 to 59 months, and measles vaccination coverage among children aged 6 months to 14 years. The recall period ran from January 1 to the day of the survey, i.e., a minimum of 210, 228 and 241 days respectively. Two phases were considered: 1) the pre-crisis phase (Toumtouma: January 1 - March 14, 2023 / Ourang and Arkoum: January 1 - April 14, 2023) and 2) the crisis phase (Toumtouma: March 15 - day of survey / Ourang and Arkoum: April 15 - day of survey). In Toumtouma camp, the crisis phase started earlier due to inter-community tensions that erupted end of March in West Darfur and drove important population displacements towards Chad.
RESULTS
Retrospective mortality: In Toumtouma camp, of the 1,032 households included (i.e., 6,372 people), 59.7% were refugees, 35.9% returnees and 4.4% displaced persons. The crude mortality rate (CMR) was significantly higher in phase 2 (CMR: 0.58 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 0.43 - 0.74]) than in phase 1 (CMR: 0.20 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 0.07 - 0.33]). Eighty-nine percent of those who died were men. Violence (77%; n=48) was the main cause of death reported, followed by diarrhea (6%; n=4) and respiratory infection (5%; n=3). Among the deaths, 68% occurred in their town or village of origin, 21% during displacement and 11% in an unknown location. Most people who died came from El Geneina (40%), Tandulti (35%) and Umm Dam (16%) in Darfur.
In Ourang camp, of the 1032 households included (i.e., 6302 people), 99.0% were refugees and 1.0% returnees. The CMR was significantly higher in phase 2 (CMR: 2.25 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 1.77 - 2.74]) than in phase 1 (CMR: 0.11 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 0.02 - 0.20]). Eighty-three percent of those who died were men (3.88 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 3.01 - 4.76] in phase 2). Violence (82%; n=147) was the main cause of death reported, followed by measles (5%; n=9). Among the deaths, 69% occurred in their town or village of origin, 25% during displacement and 6% in Adre, Chad. Most people who died came from El Geneina (96%) in Darfur.
In Arkoum camp, of the 1029 households included (i.e., 5324 people), 98.4% were refugees, 1.3% displaced and 0.4% returnees. The CMR was significantly higher in phase 2 (CMR: 0.67 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 0.46 - 0.89]) than in phase 1 (CMR: 0.15 deaths/10,000 people/day [95% CI: 0.03 - 0.26]). Seventy-seven percent of those who died were men; the mortality rate among men was 1.14 [95% CI: 0.72 - 1.55] in the second phase. Violence (50%; n=28) was the main cause of death reported, followed by diarrhea (16%; n=9). Among the deaths, 52% occurred in their town or village of origin, 27% during displacement, 5% after their arrival in Chad and 16% in an unknown location. Most people who died came from Mistre (54%) and Kongu (29%) in Darfur.
Frequency and main causes of violence: Among households in Toumtouma, Ourang and Arkoum camps, the overall frequency of violence was 3.3%, 11.7% and 4.4% respectively. The main types of violence were beatings (71.0% in Toumtouma, 71.1% in Ourang, and 79.7% in Arkoum), and shootings (27.1% in Toumtouma, 34.7% in Ourang, and 15.1% in Arkoum).
Prevalence of acute malnutrition: Among children aged 6-59 months, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) according to MUAC and/or bilateral oedema was 5.5% [95% CI: 4.1 - 7.5] in Toumtouma, 11.3% [95% CI: 9.2 - 13.8] in Ourang, and 11.6% [95% CI: 9.5 - 14.5] in Arkoum camp. Rates of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were 2.3% [95% CI: 1.4 - 3.6] in Toumtouma, 4.8% [95% CI: 3.6 - 6.4] in Ourang, and 4.6% [95% CI: 3.4 - 6.3] in Arkoum.
Measles vaccination: Measles vaccination coverage among children aged 6 months to 14 years was estimated at 58.6% [95% CI: 56.9 - 60.3] in Toumtouma, 75.9% [95% CI: 71.3 - 79.9] in Ourang, and 63.6% [95% CI: 58.2 - 68.7] in Arkoum.
CONCLUSIONS
In the three camps investigated, excess mortality was observed among households during the crisis phase (phase 2), with a significant difference in CMR due to deaths from violence among men. Among households living in Toumtouma camp, the CMR more than doubled and among households in Arkoum camp, it more than tripled. The population in Ourang camp seems to have been particularly affected by the violence, with CMR 20 times higher than in the pre- crisis period and mortality rates exceeding the standard emergency threshold (1 death/10,000 people/day). The vast majority of deaths occurred on the sites of origin or during displacement towards Chad (89% in Toutouma, 94% in Ourang and 79% in Arkoum). GAM and SAM prevalences among 6-59-month-olds were high in Ourang and Arkoum camps, with an alarming SAM prevalence of over 4%. In addition, the measles vaccination coverage, which ranged from 59% to 76% across the camps surveyed, was insufficient to prevent outbreaks.
