Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Med. 2019 April 5; Volume 16 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002776
Gupta-Wright A, Corbett EL, Wilson D, van Oosterhout JJ, Dheda K, et al.
PLOS Med. 2019 April 5; Volume 16 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002776
The prevalence of and mortality from HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB) in hospital inpatients in Africa remains unacceptably high. Currently, there is a lack of tools to identify those at high risk of early mortality who may benefit from adjunctive interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk score to predict mortality in high-burden, low-resource settings. A cohort of HIV-positive adults with laboratory-confirmed TB from the STAMP TB screening trial (Malawi and South Africa) was used to derive a clinical risk score using multivariable predictive modelling, considering factors at hospital admission (including urine lipoarabinomannan [LAM] detection) thought to be associated with 2-month mortality. Performance was evaluated internally and then externally validated using independent cohorts from 2 other studies (LAM-RCT and a Médecins Sans Frontières [MSF] cohort) from South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Kenya. The derivation cohort included 315 patients enrolled from October 2015 and September 2017. Their median age was 36 years (IQR 30-43), 45.4% were female, median CD4 cell count at admission was 76 cells/μl (IQR 23-206), and 80.2% (210/262) of those who knew they were HIV-positive at hospital admission were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Two-month mortality was 30% (94/315), and mortality was associated with the following factors included in the score: age 55 years or older, male sex, being ART experienced, having severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 80 g/l), being unable to walk unaided, and having a positive urinary Determine TB LAM Ag test (Alere). The score identified patients with a 46.4% (95% CI 37.8%-55.2%) mortality risk in the high-risk group compared to 12.5% (95% CI 5.7%-25.4%) in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). The odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-15.2) in high-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (p < 0.001). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, p = 0.78) were good in the derivation cohort, and similar in the external validation cohort (complete cases n = 372, c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.61-0.74]). The validation cohort included 644 patients between January 2013 and August 2015. Median age was 36 years, 48.9% were female, and median CD4 count at admission was 61 (IQR 21-145). OR for mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 2.2-9.5) for high compared to low-risk patients (complete cases n = 372, p < 0.001). The score also predicted patients at higher risk of death both pre- and post-discharge. A simplified score (any 3 or more of the predictors) performed equally well. The main limitations of the scores were their imperfect accuracy, the need for access to urine LAM testing, modest study size, and not measuring all potential predictors of mortality (e.g., tuberculosis drug resistance). This risk score is capable of identifying patients who could benefit from enhanced clinical care, follow-up, and/or adjunctive interventions, although further prospective validation studies are necessary. Given the scale of HIV/TB morbidity and mortality in African hospitals, better prognostic tools along with interventions could contribute towards global targets to reduce tuberculosis mortality.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
Lancet. 2011 July 16; Volume 378 (Issue 9787); 282-4.; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62303-3
Schouten EJ, Jahn A, Midiani D, Makombe SD, Mnthambala A, et al.
Lancet. 2011 July 16; Volume 378 (Issue 9787); 282-4.; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62303-3
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
Lancet Infect Dis. 2018 October 18; Volume 19 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30493-6
Loyse A, Burry J, Cohn J, Ford NP, Chiller T, et al.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2018 October 18; Volume 19 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30493-6
In 2018, WHO issued guidelines for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of HIV-related cryptococcal disease. Two strategies are recommended to reduce the high mortality associated with HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs): optimised combination therapies for confirmed meningitis cases and cryptococcal antigen screening programmes for ambulatory people living with HIV who access care. WHO's preferred therapy for the treatment of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in LMICs is 1 week of amphotericin B plus flucytosine, and the alternative therapy is 2 weeks of fluconazole plus flucytosine. In the ACTA trial, 1-week (short course) amphotericin B plus flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 24% (95% CI -16 to 32) and 2 weeks of fluconazole and flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 35% (95% CI -29 to 41). However, with widely used fluconazole monotherapy, mortality because of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis is approximately 70% in many African LMIC settings. Therefore, the potential to transform the management of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in resource-limited settings is substantial. Sustainable access to essential medicines, including flucytosine and amphotericin B, in LMICs is paramount and the focus of this Personal View.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
PLOS Med. 2010 August 10; Volume 7 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000319
Douglas GP, Gadabu OJ, Joukes S, Mumba S, McKay MV, et al.
PLOS Med. 2010 August 10; Volume 7 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000319
Journal Article > CommentaryAbstract
Lancet Infect Dis. 2010 January 1; Volume 10 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70321-4
Harries AD, Zachariah R, van Oosterhout JJ, Reid SE, Hosseinipour MC, et al.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2010 January 1; Volume 10 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70321-4
Despite the enormous progress made in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, many challenges remain, not least of which are the identification and management of patients who have failed first-line therapy. Less than 3% of patients are receiving second-line treatment at present, whereas 15-25% of patients have detectable viral loads 12 months or more into treatment, of whom a substantial proportion might have virological failure. We discuss the reasons why virological ART failure is likely to be under-diagnosed in the routine health system, and address the current difficulties with standard recommended second-line ART regimens. The development of new diagnostic tools for ART failure, in particular a point-of-care HIV viral-load test, combined with simple and inexpensive second-line therapy, such as boosted protease-inhibitor monotherapy, could revolutionise the management of ART failure in resource-limited settings.