We collected individual patient data from observational studies identified through systematic reviews and a public call for data. We included patients meeting WHO eligibility criteria for the shorter regimen: not previously treated with second-line drugs, and with fluoroquinolone- and second-line injectable agent-susceptible RR/MDR-TB. We used propensity score matched, mixed effects meta-regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios and adjusted risk differences (aRDs) for failure or relapse, death within 12 months of treatment initiation and loss to follow-up.
We included 2625 out of 3378 (77.7%) individuals from nine studies of shorter regimens and 2717 out of 13 104 (20.7%) individuals from 53 studies of longer regimens. Treatment success was higher with the shorter regimen than with longer regimens (pooled proportions 80.0% versus 75.3%), due to less loss to follow-up with the former (aRD -0.15, 95% CI -0.17- -0.12). The risk difference for failure or relapse was slightly higher with the shorter regimen overall (aRD 0.02, 95% CI 0-0.05) and greater in magnitude with baseline resistance to pyrazinamide (aRD 0.12, 95% CI 0.07-0.16), prothionamide/ethionamide (aRD 0.07, 95% CI -0.01-0.16) or ethambutol (aRD 0.09, 95% CI 0.04-0.13).
In patients meeting WHO criteria for its use, the standardised shorter regimen was associated with substantially less loss to follow-up during treatment compared with individualised longer regimens and with more failure or relapse in the presence of resistance to component medications. Our findings support the need to improve access to reliable drug susceptibility testing.
Many children with pulmonary tuberculosis remain undiagnosed and untreated with related high morbidity and mortality. Recent advances in childhood tuberculosis algorithm development have incorporated prediction modelling, but studies so far have been small and localised, with limited generalisability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of currently used diagnostic algorithms and to use prediction modelling to develop evidence-based algorithms to assist in tuberculosis treatment decision making for children presenting to primary health-care centres.
METHODS
For this meta-analysis, we identified individual participant data from a WHO public call for data on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents and referral from childhood tuberculosis experts. We included studies that prospectively recruited consecutive participants younger than 10 years attending health-care centres in countries with a high tuberculosis incidence for clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis. We collated individual participant data including clinical, bacteriological, and radiological information and a standardised reference classification of pulmonary tuberculosis. Using this dataset, we first retrospectively evaluated the performance of several existing treatment-decision algorithms. We then used the data to develop two multivariable prediction models that included features used in clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis-one with chest x-ray features and one without-and we investigated each model's generalisability using internal-external cross-validation. The parameter coefficient estimates of the two models were scaled into two scoring systems to classify tuberculosis with a prespecified sensitivity target. The two scoring systems were used to develop two pragmatic, treatment-decision algorithms for use in primary health-care settings.
FINDINGS
Of 4718 children from 13 studies from 12 countries, 1811 (38·4%) were classified as having pulmonary tuberculosis: 541 (29·9%) bacteriologically confirmed and 1270 (70·1%) unconfirmed. Existing treatment-decision algorithms had highly variable diagnostic performance. The scoring system derived from the prediction model that included clinical features and features from chest x-ray had a combined sensitivity of 0·86 [95% CI 0·68-0·94] and specificity of 0·37 [0·15-0·66] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system derived from the model that included only clinical features had a combined sensitivity of 0·84 [95% CI 0·66-0·93] and specificity of 0·30 [0·13-0·56] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system from each model was placed after triage steps, including assessment of illness acuity and risk of poor tuberculosis-related outcomes, to develop treatment-decision algorithms.
INTERPRETATION
We adopted an evidence-based approach to develop pragmatic algorithms to guide tuberculosis treatment decisions in children, irrespective of the resources locally available. This approach will empower health workers in primary health-care settings with high tuberculosis incidence and limited resources to initiate tuberculosis treatment in children to improve access to care and reduce tuberculosis-related mortality. These algorithms have been included in the operational handbook accompanying the latest WHO guidelines on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents. Future prospective evaluation of algorithms, including those developed in this work, is necessary to investigate clinical performance.
The global target of tuberculosis (TB) elimination by 2050 requires new approaches. Active case finding plus mass prophylactic treatment has been disappointing. We consider mass full anti-tuberculosis treatment as an approach to TB elimination in Kiribati, a Pacific Island nation, with a persistent epidemic of high TB incidence.
OBJECTIVE
To construct a mathematical model to predict whether mass treatment with a full course of anti-tuberculosis drugs might eliminate TB from the defined population of the Republic of Kiribati.
METHODS
We constructed a seven-state compartmental model of the life cycle of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in which active TB disease arises from the progression of infection, reinfection, reactivation and relapse, while distinguishing infectious from non-infectious disease. We evaluated the effects of 5-yearly mass treatment using a range of parameter values to generate outcomes in uncertainty analysis.
RESULTS
Assuming population-wide treatment effectiveness for latent tuberculous infection and active TB of ⩾90%, annual TB incidence is expected to fall sharply at each 5-yearly round of treatment, approaching elimination in two decades. The model showed that the incidence rate is sensitive to the relapse rate after successful treatment of TB.
CONCLUSION
Mass treatment may help to eliminate TB, at least for discrete or geographically isolated populations.
BACKGROUND
TB is concentrated in populations with complex health and social issues, including alcohol use disorders (AUD). We describe treatment adherence and outcomes in a person-centred, multidisciplinary, psychosocial support and harm reduction intervention for people with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) with harmful alcohol use.
METHODS
An observational cohort study, including multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression and survival analysis with people living in Minsk admitted with MDR/RR-TB and AUD during January 2019–November 2021 who received this person-centred, multidisciplinary, psychosocial support and harm reduction intervention, was conducted.
RESULTS
There were 89 participants enrolled in the intervention, with a median follow-up of 12.2 (IQR: 8.1–20.5) mo. The majority (n=80; 89.9%) of participants had AUD, 11 (12.4%) also had a dependence on other substances, six (6.7%) a dependence on opioids and three (3.4%) a personality disorder. Fifty-eight had a history of past incarceration (65.2%), homelessness (n=9; 10.1%) or unemployment (n=55; 61.8%). Median adherence was 95.4% (IQR: 90.4–99.6%) and outpatient adherence was 91.2% (IQR: 65.1–97.0%). Lower adherence was associated with hepatitis C, alcohol plus other substance use and outpatient facility-based treatment, rather than video-observed treatment, home-based or inpatient treatment support.
CONCLUSIONS
This intervention led to good adherence to MDR/RR-TB treatment in people with harmful use of alcohol, a group usually at risk of poor outcomes. Poor outcomes were associated with hepatitis C, other substance misuse and outpatient facility-based treatment support.
Following the partition of India in 1947, the Kashmir Valley has been subject to continual political insecurity and ongoing conflict, the region remains highly militarised. We conducted a representative cross-sectional population-based survey of adults to estimate the prevalence and predictors of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley.
METHODS
Between October and December 2015, we interviewed 5519 out of 5600 invited participants, ≥18 years of age, randomly sampled using a probability proportional to size cluster sampling design. We estimated the prevalence of a probable psychological disorder using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25) and the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ-16). Both screening instruments had been culturally adapted and translated. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for developing symptoms of psychological distress.
FINDINGS
The estimated prevalence of mental distress in adults in the Kashmir Valley was 45% (95% CI 42.6 to 47.0). We identified 41% (95% CI 39.2 to 43.4) of adults with probable depression, 26% (95% CI 23.8 to 27.5) with probable anxiety and 19% (95% CI 17.5 to 21.2) with probable PTSD. The three disorders were associated with the following characteristics: being female, over 55 years of age, having had no formal education, living in a rural area and being widowed/divorced or separated. A dose-response association was found between the number of traumatic events experienced or witnessed and all three mental disorders.
INTERPRETATION
The implementation of mental health awareness programmes, interventions aimed at high risk groups and addressing trauma-related symptoms from all causes are needed in the Kashmir Valley.