Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Med. 12 September 2024; Volume 21 (Issue 9); e1004428.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004428
Schilling WHK, Mukaka M, Callery JJ, Llewelyn MJ, Cruz CV, et al.
PLOS Med. 12 September 2024; Volume 21 (Issue 9); e1004428.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004428
BACKGROUND
Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has proved ineffective in treating patients hospitalised with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), but uncertainty remains over its safety and efficacy in chemoprevention. Previous chemoprevention randomised controlled trials (RCTs) did not individually show benefit of HCQ against COVID-19 and, although meta-analysis did suggest clinical benefit, guidelines recommend against its use.
METHODS AND FINDINGS
Healthy adult participants from the healthcare setting, and later from the community, were enrolled in 26 centres in 11 countries to a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of COVID-19 chemoprevention. HCQ was evaluated in Europe and Africa, and chloroquine (CQ) was evaluated in Asia, (both base equivalent of 155 mg once daily). The primary endpoint was symptomatic COVID-19, confirmed by PCR or seroconversion during the 3-month follow-up period. The secondary and tertiary endpoints were: asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection; severity of COVID-19 symptoms; all-cause PCR-confirmed symptomatic acute respiratory illness (including SARS-CoV-2 infection); participant reported number of workdays lost; genetic and baseline biochemical markers associated with symptomatic COVID-19, respiratory illness and disease severity (not reported here); and health economic analyses of HCQ and CQ prophylaxis on costs and quality of life measures (not reported here). The primary and safety analyses were conducted in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Recruitment of 40,000 (20,000 HCQ arm, 20,000 CQ arm) participants was planned but was not possible because of protracted delays resulting from controversies over efficacy and adverse events with HCQ use, vaccine rollout in some countries, and other factors. Between 29 April 2020 and 10 March 2022, 4,652 participants (46% females) were enrolled (HCQ/CQ n = 2,320; placebo n = 2,332). The median (IQR) age was 29 (23 to 39) years. SARS-CoV-2 infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) occurred in 1,071 (23%) participants. For the primary endpoint the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 was 240/2,320 in the HCQ/CQ versus 284/2,332 in the placebo arms (risk ratio (RR) 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 1.00; p = 0.05]). For the secondary and tertiary outcomes asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred in 11.5% of HCQ/CQ recipients and 12.0% of placebo recipients: RR: 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.12; p = 0.6). There were no differences in the severity of symptoms between the groups and no severe illnesses. HCQ/CQ chemoprevention was associated with fewer PCR-confirmed all-cause respiratory infections (predominantly SARS-CoV-2): RR 0.61 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.88; p = 0.009) and fewer days lost to work because of illness: 104 days per 1,000 participants over 90 days (95% CI, 12 to 199 days; p < 0.001). The prespecified meta-analysis of all published pre-exposure RCTs indicates that HCQ/CQ prophylaxis provided a moderate protective benefit against symptomatic COVID-19: RR 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.91). Both drugs were well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events (SAEs). Study limitations include the smaller than planned study size, the relatively low number of PCR-confirmed infections, and the lower comparative accuracy of serology endpoints (in particular, the adapted dried blood spot method) compared to the PCR endpoint. The COPCOV trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov; number NCT04303507.
INTERPRETATION
In this large placebo-controlled, double-blind randomised trial, HCQ and CQ were safe and well tolerated in COVID-19 chemoprevention, and there was evidence of moderate protective benefit in a meta-analysis including this trial and similar RCTs.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 23 August 2009; Volume 8 (Issue 1); 203.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-8-203
Zwang J, Olliaro PL, Barennes H, Bonnet MMB, Brasseur P, et al.
Malar J. 23 August 2009; Volume 8 (Issue 1); 203.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-8-203
BACKGROUND: Artesunate and amodiaquine (AS&AQ) is at present the world's second most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). It was necessary to evaluate the efficacy of ACT, recently adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and deployed over 80 countries, in order to make an evidence-based drug policy.
METHODS: An individual patient data (IPD) analysis was conducted on efficacy outcomes in 26 clinical studies in sub-Saharan Africa using the WHO protocol with similar primary and secondary endpoints.
RESULTS: A total of 11,700 patients (75% under 5 years old), from 33 different sites in 16 countries were followed for 28 days. Loss to follow-up was 4.9% (575/11,700). AS&AQ was given to 5,897 patients. Of these, 82% (4,826/5,897) were included in randomized comparative trials with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping results and compared to 5,413 patients (half receiving an ACT). AS&AQ and other ACT comparators resulted in rapid clearance of fever and parasitaemia, superior to non-ACT. Using survival analysis on a modified intent-to-treat population, the Day 28 PCR-adjusted efficacy of AS&AQ was greater than 90% (the WHO cut-off) in 11/16 countries. In randomized comparative trials (n = 22), the crude efficacy of AS&AQ was 75.9% (95% CI 74.6-77.1) and the PCR-adjusted efficacy was 93.9% (95% CI 93.2-94.5). The risk (weighted by site) of failure PCR-adjusted of AS&AQ was significantly inferior to non-ACT, superior to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, in one Ugandan site), and not different from AS+SP or AL (artemether-lumefantrine). The risk of gametocyte appearance and the carriage rate of AS&AQ was only greater in one Ugandan site compared to AL and DP, and lower compared to non-ACT (p = 0.001, for all comparisons). Anaemia recovery was not different than comparator groups, except in one site in Rwanda where the patients in the DP group had a slower recovery.
CONCLUSION: AS&AQ compares well to other treatments and meets the WHO efficacy criteria for use against falciparum malaria in many, but not all, the sub-Saharan African countries where it was studied. Efficacy varies between and within countries. An IPD analysis can inform general and local treatment policies. Ongoing monitoring evaluation is required.
METHODS: An individual patient data (IPD) analysis was conducted on efficacy outcomes in 26 clinical studies in sub-Saharan Africa using the WHO protocol with similar primary and secondary endpoints.
RESULTS: A total of 11,700 patients (75% under 5 years old), from 33 different sites in 16 countries were followed for 28 days. Loss to follow-up was 4.9% (575/11,700). AS&AQ was given to 5,897 patients. Of these, 82% (4,826/5,897) were included in randomized comparative trials with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping results and compared to 5,413 patients (half receiving an ACT). AS&AQ and other ACT comparators resulted in rapid clearance of fever and parasitaemia, superior to non-ACT. Using survival analysis on a modified intent-to-treat population, the Day 28 PCR-adjusted efficacy of AS&AQ was greater than 90% (the WHO cut-off) in 11/16 countries. In randomized comparative trials (n = 22), the crude efficacy of AS&AQ was 75.9% (95% CI 74.6-77.1) and the PCR-adjusted efficacy was 93.9% (95% CI 93.2-94.5). The risk (weighted by site) of failure PCR-adjusted of AS&AQ was significantly inferior to non-ACT, superior to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, in one Ugandan site), and not different from AS+SP or AL (artemether-lumefantrine). The risk of gametocyte appearance and the carriage rate of AS&AQ was only greater in one Ugandan site compared to AL and DP, and lower compared to non-ACT (p = 0.001, for all comparisons). Anaemia recovery was not different than comparator groups, except in one site in Rwanda where the patients in the DP group had a slower recovery.
CONCLUSION: AS&AQ compares well to other treatments and meets the WHO efficacy criteria for use against falciparum malaria in many, but not all, the sub-Saharan African countries where it was studied. Efficacy varies between and within countries. An IPD analysis can inform general and local treatment policies. Ongoing monitoring evaluation is required.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
BMC Med. 27 October 2016; Volume 14 (Issue 1); 171.; DOI:10.1186/s12916-016-0701-8
Leang R, Khu NH, Mukaka M, Debackere M, Tripura R, et al.
BMC Med. 27 October 2016; Volume 14 (Issue 1); 171.; DOI:10.1186/s12916-016-0701-8
BACKGROUND
In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended the addition of single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ, 0.25 mg base/kg body weight) to artemisinin combination therapies to block the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum without testing for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. The targeted group was non-pregnant patients aged ≥ 1 year (later changed to ≥ 6 months) with acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria, primarily in countries with artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum (ARPf). No dosing regimen was suggested, leaving malaria control programmes and clinicians in limbo. Therefore, we designed a user-friendly, age-based SLDPQ regimen for Cambodia, the country most affected by ARPf.
METHODS
By reviewing primaquine's pharmacology, we defined a therapeutic dose range of 0.15-0.38 mg base/kg (9-22.5 mg in a 60-kg adult) for a therapeutic index of 2.5. Primaquine doses (1-20 mg) were tested using a modelled, anthropometric database of 28,138 Cambodian individuals (22,772 healthy, 4119 with malaria and 1247 with other infections); age distributions were: 0.5-4 years (20.0 %, n = 5640), 5-12 years (9.1 %, n = 2559), 13-17 years (9.1 %, n = 2550), and ≥ 18 years (61.8 %, n = 17,389). Optimal age-dosing groups were selected according to calculated mg base/kg doses and proportions of individuals receiving a therapeutic dose.
RESULTS
Four age-dosing bands were defined: (1) 0.5-4 years, (2) 5-9 years, (3) 10-14 years, and (4) ≥15 years to receive 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 15 mg of primaquine base, resulting in therapeutic doses in 97.4 % (5494/5640), 90.5 % (1511/1669), 97.7 % (1473/1508), and 95.7 % (18,489/19,321) of individuals, respectively. Corresponding median (1st-99th centiles) mg base/kg doses of primaquine were (1) 0.23 (0.15-0.38), (2) 0.29 (0.18-0.45), (3) 0.27 (0.15-0.39), and (4) 0.29 (0.20-0.42).
CONCLUSIONS
This age-based SLDPQ regimen could contribute substantially to malaria elimination and requires urgent evaluation in Cambodia and other countries with similar anthropometric characteristics. It guides primaquine manufacturers on suitable tablet strengths and doses for paediatric-friendly formulations. Development of similar age-based dosing recommendations for Africa is needed.
In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended the addition of single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ, 0.25 mg base/kg body weight) to artemisinin combination therapies to block the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum without testing for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. The targeted group was non-pregnant patients aged ≥ 1 year (later changed to ≥ 6 months) with acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria, primarily in countries with artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum (ARPf). No dosing regimen was suggested, leaving malaria control programmes and clinicians in limbo. Therefore, we designed a user-friendly, age-based SLDPQ regimen for Cambodia, the country most affected by ARPf.
METHODS
By reviewing primaquine's pharmacology, we defined a therapeutic dose range of 0.15-0.38 mg base/kg (9-22.5 mg in a 60-kg adult) for a therapeutic index of 2.5. Primaquine doses (1-20 mg) were tested using a modelled, anthropometric database of 28,138 Cambodian individuals (22,772 healthy, 4119 with malaria and 1247 with other infections); age distributions were: 0.5-4 years (20.0 %, n = 5640), 5-12 years (9.1 %, n = 2559), 13-17 years (9.1 %, n = 2550), and ≥ 18 years (61.8 %, n = 17,389). Optimal age-dosing groups were selected according to calculated mg base/kg doses and proportions of individuals receiving a therapeutic dose.
RESULTS
Four age-dosing bands were defined: (1) 0.5-4 years, (2) 5-9 years, (3) 10-14 years, and (4) ≥15 years to receive 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 15 mg of primaquine base, resulting in therapeutic doses in 97.4 % (5494/5640), 90.5 % (1511/1669), 97.7 % (1473/1508), and 95.7 % (18,489/19,321) of individuals, respectively. Corresponding median (1st-99th centiles) mg base/kg doses of primaquine were (1) 0.23 (0.15-0.38), (2) 0.29 (0.18-0.45), (3) 0.27 (0.15-0.39), and (4) 0.29 (0.20-0.42).
CONCLUSIONS
This age-based SLDPQ regimen could contribute substantially to malaria elimination and requires urgent evaluation in Cambodia and other countries with similar anthropometric characteristics. It guides primaquine manufacturers on suitable tablet strengths and doses for paediatric-friendly formulations. Development of similar age-based dosing recommendations for Africa is needed.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 9 September 2021; Volume 20 (Issue 1); 366.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-021-03886-w
Taylor WRJ, Hoglund RM, Peerawaranun P, Nguyen TN, Hien TT, et al.
Malar J. 9 September 2021; Volume 20 (Issue 1); 366.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-021-03886-w
BACKGROUND
In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.
METHODS
The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.
RESULTS
The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.
CONCLUSION
The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.
In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax.
METHODS
The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen.
RESULTS
The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day.
CONCLUSION
The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Lancet. 23 April 2005; Volume 365 (Issue 9469); DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66416-1
Piola P, Fogg C, Bajunirwe F, Biraro S, Grandesso F, et al.
Lancet. 23 April 2005; Volume 365 (Issue 9469); DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66416-1
BACKGROUND: The six-dose regimen of artemether-lumefantrine is effective and is among combination therapies prioritised to replace antimalarials that no longer work in Africa. However, its effectiveness has not been assessed in the field, and could be compromised by poor adherence, incorrect timing of doses, and insufficient intake of fatty foods with every dose. Our aim, therefore, was to assess the effectiveness of artemether-lumefantrine prescribed under routine outpatient conditions, compared with its efficacy when given under supervision to inpatients with acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria. METHODS: We did a randomised trial to compare the efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetics of artemether-lumefantrine when given in a supervised (all doses observed with fatty-food intake; n=313) or unsupervised (first dose supervised followed by outpatient treatment with nutritional advice; n=644) setting to patients of all ages (weight >10 kg) with acute, uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary endpoint was 28 day, PCR-adjusted, parasitological cure rate. Analysis was by intention to treat and evaluability analysis. FINDINGS: 38 patients were lost to follow-up and one withdrew consent. Day-28 cure rates were 97.7% (296 of 303) and 98.0% (603 of 615) in the supervised and unsupervised groups, respectively. We recorded 15 non-severe, drug-related adverse events, all of which resolved. INTERPRETATION: Artemether-lumefantrine has a high cure rate irrespective of whether given under supervision with food or under conditions of routine clinic practice. If used as first-line treatment, artemether-lumefantrine could make a substantial contribution to malaria control in Africa, though cost is an issue.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trop Med Int Health. 1 February 2007; Volume 12 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2007.01813.x
Mugittu K, Priotto G, Guthmann JP, Kiguli J, Adjuik M, et al.
Trop Med Int Health. 1 February 2007; Volume 12 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2007.01813.x
Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping of malaria parasites in drug efficacy trials helps differentiate reinfections from recrudescences. A combination therapy trial of one (n = 115) or three (n = 117) days artesunate (1AS, 3AS 4 mg/kg/day) plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) vs. SP alone (n = 153) was conducted in Mbarara, a mesoendemic area of western Uganda. All paired recurrent Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemias on days 7, 14, 21 and 28 post-treatment were genotyped by PCR amplification and analysis of glutamate-rich protein (glurp) and merozoite surface proteins (msp) 1 and 2 genes to distinguish recrudescent from new infections. A total of 156 (1AS = 61, 3AS = 35, SP alone = 60) of 199 paired recurrent samples were successfully analysed and were resolved as 79 recrudescences (1AS = 32, 3AS = 8, SP = 39) and 77 as new infections (1AS = 29, 3AS = 27, SP = 21). The ratios of proportions of new to recrudescent infections were 0.2, 0.9, 1.4 and 1.9 on days 7, 14, 21 and 28, respectively (P < 0.001, chi(2) test for linear trend). Unexpected high new infection rates were observed early in follow-up on days 7 [5/26 (19.2%)] and 14 [24/51 (47.1%)]. These results impact significantly on resistance monitoring and point to the value of genotyping all recurrent infections in antimalarial trials.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network Methodology Study Group, Dahal P, Simpson JA, Abdulla S, Achan J, et al.
Malar J. 5 July 2019; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
BACKGROUND
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Malar J. 9 August 2008; Volume 7 (Issue 1); 154.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-7-154
Ashley EA, Pinoges LLP, Turyakira E, Dorsey G, Checchi F, et al.
Malar J. 9 August 2008; Volume 7 (Issue 1); 154.; DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-7-154
BACKGROUND: Use of different methods for assessing the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination antimalarial treatments (ACTs) will result in different estimates being reported, with implications for changes in treatment policy.
METHODS: Data from different in vivo studies of ACT treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria were combined in a single database. Efficacy at day 28 corrected by PCR genotyping was estimated using four methods. In the first two methods, failure rates were calculated as proportions with either (1a) reinfections excluded from the analysis (standard WHO per-protocol analysis) or (1b) reinfections considered as treatment successes. In the second two methods, failure rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit formula using either (2a) WHO (2001) definitions of failure, or (2b) failure defined using parasitological criteria only.
RESULTS: Data analysed represented 2926 patients from 17 studies in nine African countries. Three ACTs were studied: artesunate-amodiaquine (AS+AQ, N = 1702), artesunate-sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP, N = 706) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL, N = 518).Using method (1a), the day 28 failure rates ranged from 0% to 39.3% for AS+AQ treatment, from 1.0% to 33.3% for AS+SP treatment and from 0% to 3.3% for AL treatment. The median [range] difference in point estimates between method 1a (reference) and the others were: (i) method 1b = 1.3% [0 to 24.8], (ii) method 2a = 1.1% [0 to 21.5], and (iii) method 2b = 0% [-38 to 19.3].The standard per-protocol method (1a) tended to overestimate the risk of failure when compared to alternative methods using the same endpoint definitions (methods 1b and 2a). It either overestimated or underestimated the risk when endpoints based on parasitological rather than clinical criteria were applied. The standard method was also associated with a 34% reduction in the number of patients evaluated compared to the number of patients enrolled. Only 2% of the sample size was lost when failures were classified on the first day of parasite recurrence and survival analytical methods were used.
CONCLUSION: The primary purpose of an in vivo study should be to provide a precise estimate of the risk of antimalarial treatment failure due to drug resistance. Use of survival analysis is the most appropriate way to estimate failure rates with parasitological recurrence classified as treatment failure on the day it occurs.
METHODS: Data from different in vivo studies of ACT treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria were combined in a single database. Efficacy at day 28 corrected by PCR genotyping was estimated using four methods. In the first two methods, failure rates were calculated as proportions with either (1a) reinfections excluded from the analysis (standard WHO per-protocol analysis) or (1b) reinfections considered as treatment successes. In the second two methods, failure rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit formula using either (2a) WHO (2001) definitions of failure, or (2b) failure defined using parasitological criteria only.
RESULTS: Data analysed represented 2926 patients from 17 studies in nine African countries. Three ACTs were studied: artesunate-amodiaquine (AS+AQ, N = 1702), artesunate-sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP, N = 706) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL, N = 518).Using method (1a), the day 28 failure rates ranged from 0% to 39.3% for AS+AQ treatment, from 1.0% to 33.3% for AS+SP treatment and from 0% to 3.3% for AL treatment. The median [range] difference in point estimates between method 1a (reference) and the others were: (i) method 1b = 1.3% [0 to 24.8], (ii) method 2a = 1.1% [0 to 21.5], and (iii) method 2b = 0% [-38 to 19.3].The standard per-protocol method (1a) tended to overestimate the risk of failure when compared to alternative methods using the same endpoint definitions (methods 1b and 2a). It either overestimated or underestimated the risk when endpoints based on parasitological rather than clinical criteria were applied. The standard method was also associated with a 34% reduction in the number of patients evaluated compared to the number of patients enrolled. Only 2% of the sample size was lost when failures were classified on the first day of parasite recurrence and survival analytical methods were used.
CONCLUSION: The primary purpose of an in vivo study should be to provide a precise estimate of the risk of antimalarial treatment failure due to drug resistance. Use of survival analysis is the most appropriate way to estimate failure rates with parasitological recurrence classified as treatment failure on the day it occurs.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 25 January 2008
Priotto G, Kabakyenga JK, Pinoges LLP, Ruiz A, Eriksson T, et al.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 25 January 2008
Drug-resistant malaria is spreading in Africa. The few available drugs might be safeguarded if combined with an artemisinin derivative. We investigated the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of 2 combinations of artesunate with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in a mesoendemic region in Uganda with SP resistance, from September 1999 to June 2000. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 420 children aged 6-59 months with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were assigned SP alone (25 mg/kg sulfadoxine, 1.25 mg/kg pyrimethamine) or combined with artesunate (AS; 4 mg/kg/d) for either 1 d (SPAS1) or 3 d (SPAS3). Children were followed-up for 28 d. Day 14 cure rates were 84.6% (99/117) with SPAS3 and 61.9% (73/118) with SPAS1 compared with 55.8% (86/154) with SP. Corresponding day 28 results were 74.4% (87/117) and 45.2% (52/115) compared with 40.5% (62/153). A significant improvement was obtained with the addition of 3 d, but not 1 d, of artesunate (risk ratio [RR] = 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.8 at 14 d and RR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.3 at 28 d). Both AS regimens achieved significantly faster parasite clearance and lower gametocyte carriage. All drug regimens were well tolerated, but SP alone was ineffective. Treatment efficacy improved with SPAS3 but the cure rate at day 28 was modest. The combinations were well tolerated and safe. In areas where SP resistance is prevalent other combinations should be considered.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 1 November 2004; Volume 48 (Issue 11); DOI:10.1128/AAC.48.11.4271-4280.2004
Stepniewska K, Taylor WRJ, Mayxay M, Price RN, Smithuis FM, et al.
Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 1 November 2004; Volume 48 (Issue 11); DOI:10.1128/AAC.48.11.4271-4280.2004
To determine the optimum duration of follow-up for the assessment of drug efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, 96 trial arms from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with follow-up of 28 days or longer that were conducted between 1990 and 2003 were analyzed. These trials enrolled 13,772 patients, and participating patients comprised 23% of all patients enrolled in RCTs over the past 40 years; 61 (64%) trial arms were conducted in areas where the rate of malaria transmission was low, and 58 (50%) trial arms were supported by parasite genotyping to distinguish true recrudescences from reinfections. The median overall failure rate reported was 10% (range, 0 to 47%). The widely used day 14 assessment had a sensitivity of between 0 and 37% in identifying treatment failures and had no predictive value. Assessment at day 28 had a sensitivity of 66% overall (28 to 100% in individual trials) but could be used to predict the true failure rate if either parasite genotyping was performed (r(2) = 0.94) or if the entomological inoculation rate was known. In the assessment of drug efficacy against falciparum malaria, 28 days should be the minimum period of follow-up.