Conference Material > Slide Presentation
Wardley T, West KP, Tesfay B, Robinson N, Parry L, et al.
MSF Scientific Day International 2024. 16 May 2024; DOI:10.57740/EQ5OG2MuMi
Conference Material > Abstract
Wardley T, West KP, Tesfay B, Robinson N, Parry L, et al.
MSF Scientific Day International 2024. 16 May 2024; DOI:10.57740/a4TlzIISm
INTRODUCTION
Climate and environmental conditions are critical factors in malaria transmission. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) teams in South Sudan have seen changes in the timing and intensity of malaria seasonal peaks over the past decade. The Malaria Anticipation Project (MAP) aims to develop predictive early warning systems to better predict and act upon any expected rise in malaria cases, through routine surveillance.
METHODS
Predictive models were developed using environmental data collected from climate and space agencies and weekly outpatient department (OPD) malaria case count in Lankien hospital (Jonglei State, South Sudan) as the epidemiological input and output. An ensemble modelling approach was developed using linear regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models in a recursive modelling framework. The models were developed using data from 2012–2020, verified with data from 2020–2022, and then monitored in real time in the 2022/23 season. To assess model performance, observed OPD malaria cases were compared with the monthly average cases and classified into categories to assess how often the model prediction was in the same category as the observed number of cases. We
also conducted a qualitative survey to explore community understanding of malaria and its relationship to climate.
RESULTS
During model development, the predictive performance was very high at 2 weeks’ lead time (75% classification accuracy). Model performance remained satisfactory at up to 8 weeks’ lead time (70% classification accuracy), while beyond this, it became increasingly susceptible to large prediction errors. In the 2020/21 and 2021/22 malaria seasons, the predictive performance at 2 weeks’ lead time was good, but it overpredicted for both seasons at 4–8 weeks. The 2022–23 season saw the lowest number of malaria cases of any year in the data used to train the model. The models predicted that the number of cases would be below the long-term average for Lankien hospital, but overpredicted the burden. Across all models, the shorter the lead time of the models, the greater their predictive performance.
CONCLUSION
This modelling approach has the potential to inform anticipatory action within an operationally useful timeframe. Given the models are trained on historical data and cannot include all factors affecting malaria transmission, if relationships between malaria and other conditions change over time, this will impact model performance, demonstrating the limits of forecasting approaches. The next stage of the MAP project will focus on replicability in other settings and pilot implementation to understand operational feasibility and improve performance.
Climate and environmental conditions are critical factors in malaria transmission. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) teams in South Sudan have seen changes in the timing and intensity of malaria seasonal peaks over the past decade. The Malaria Anticipation Project (MAP) aims to develop predictive early warning systems to better predict and act upon any expected rise in malaria cases, through routine surveillance.
METHODS
Predictive models were developed using environmental data collected from climate and space agencies and weekly outpatient department (OPD) malaria case count in Lankien hospital (Jonglei State, South Sudan) as the epidemiological input and output. An ensemble modelling approach was developed using linear regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models in a recursive modelling framework. The models were developed using data from 2012–2020, verified with data from 2020–2022, and then monitored in real time in the 2022/23 season. To assess model performance, observed OPD malaria cases were compared with the monthly average cases and classified into categories to assess how often the model prediction was in the same category as the observed number of cases. We
also conducted a qualitative survey to explore community understanding of malaria and its relationship to climate.
RESULTS
During model development, the predictive performance was very high at 2 weeks’ lead time (75% classification accuracy). Model performance remained satisfactory at up to 8 weeks’ lead time (70% classification accuracy), while beyond this, it became increasingly susceptible to large prediction errors. In the 2020/21 and 2021/22 malaria seasons, the predictive performance at 2 weeks’ lead time was good, but it overpredicted for both seasons at 4–8 weeks. The 2022–23 season saw the lowest number of malaria cases of any year in the data used to train the model. The models predicted that the number of cases would be below the long-term average for Lankien hospital, but overpredicted the burden. Across all models, the shorter the lead time of the models, the greater their predictive performance.
CONCLUSION
This modelling approach has the potential to inform anticipatory action within an operationally useful timeframe. Given the models are trained on historical data and cannot include all factors affecting malaria transmission, if relationships between malaria and other conditions change over time, this will impact model performance, demonstrating the limits of forecasting approaches. The next stage of the MAP project will focus on replicability in other settings and pilot implementation to understand operational feasibility and improve performance.
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Wellcome Open Res. 14 August 2023; Volume 8; 343.; DOI:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19490.1
Sheather J, Littler K, Singh JA, Wright K
Wellcome Open Res. 14 August 2023; Volume 8; 343.; DOI:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19490.1
Anthropogenic climate change is unequivocal, and many of its physical health impacts have been identified, although further research is required into the mental health and wellbeing effects of climate change. There is a lack of understanding of the importance of ethics in policy-responses to health and climate change which is also linked to the lack of specific action-guiding ethical resources for researchers and practitioners. There is a marked paucity of ethically-informed health input into economic policy-responses to climate change—an area of important future work. The interaction between health, climate change and ethics is technically and theoretically complex and work in this area is fragmentary, unfocussed, and underdeveloped. Research and reflection on climate and health is fragmented and plagued by disciplinary silos and exponentially increasing literature means that the field cannot be synthesised using conventional methods. Reviewing the literature in these fields is therefore methodologically challenging. Although many of the normative challenges in responding to climate change have been identified, available theoretical approaches are insufficiently robust, and this may be linked to the lack of action-guiding support for practitioners. There is a lack of ethical reflection on research into climate change responses. Low-HDI (Human Development Index) countries are under-represented in research and publication both in the health-impacts of climate change, and normative reflection on health and climate change policy. There is a noticeable lack of ethical commentary on a range of key topics in the environmental health literature including population, pollution, transport, energy, food, and water use. Serious work is required to synthesise the principles governing policy responses to health and climate change, particularly in relation to value conflicts between the human and non-human world and the challenges presented by questions of intergenerational justice.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 1 July 2022; Volume 26 (Issue 7); 658-663.; DOI:10.5588/ijtld.21.0631
Nair P, Hasan T, Zaw KK, Allamuratova S, Ismailov A, et al.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 1 July 2022; Volume 26 (Issue 7); 658-663.; DOI:10.5588/ijtld.21.0631
BACKGROUND
The WHO recommends the use of bedaquiline (BDQ) in longer, as well as shorter, multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) treatment regimens. However, resistance to this new drug is now emerging. We aimed to describe the characteristics of patients in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, who were treated for MDR-TB and acquired BDQ resistance during treatment.
METHODS
We performed a retrospective study of routinely collected data for patients treated for MDR-TB in Karakalpakstan between January 2015 and December 2020. We included patients on BDQ-containing regimens with baseline susceptibility to BDQ who developed BDQ resistance at any point after treatment initiation. Patients resistant to BDQ at baseline or with no confirmed susceptibility to BDQ at baseline were excluded.
RESULTS:
Of the 523 patients who received BDQ-containing regimens during the study period, BDQ resistance was detected in 31 patients (5.9%); 20 patients were excluded-16 with no prior confirmation of BDQ susceptibility and 4 who were resistant at baseline. Eleven patients with acquired BDQ resistance were identified. We discuss demographic variables, resistance profiles, treatment-related variables and risk factors for unfavourable outcomes for these patients.
CONCLUSION
Our programmatic data demonstrated the acquisition of BDQ resistance during or subsequent to receiving a BDQ-containing regimen in a patient cohort from Uzbekistan. We highlight the need for individualised treatment regimens with optimised clinical and laboratory follow up to prevent resistance acquisition.
The WHO recommends the use of bedaquiline (BDQ) in longer, as well as shorter, multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) treatment regimens. However, resistance to this new drug is now emerging. We aimed to describe the characteristics of patients in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, who were treated for MDR-TB and acquired BDQ resistance during treatment.
METHODS
We performed a retrospective study of routinely collected data for patients treated for MDR-TB in Karakalpakstan between January 2015 and December 2020. We included patients on BDQ-containing regimens with baseline susceptibility to BDQ who developed BDQ resistance at any point after treatment initiation. Patients resistant to BDQ at baseline or with no confirmed susceptibility to BDQ at baseline were excluded.
RESULTS:
Of the 523 patients who received BDQ-containing regimens during the study period, BDQ resistance was detected in 31 patients (5.9%); 20 patients were excluded-16 with no prior confirmation of BDQ susceptibility and 4 who were resistant at baseline. Eleven patients with acquired BDQ resistance were identified. We discuss demographic variables, resistance profiles, treatment-related variables and risk factors for unfavourable outcomes for these patients.
CONCLUSION
Our programmatic data demonstrated the acquisition of BDQ resistance during or subsequent to receiving a BDQ-containing regimen in a patient cohort from Uzbekistan. We highlight the need for individualised treatment regimens with optimised clinical and laboratory follow up to prevent resistance acquisition.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trials. 4 December 2021; Volume 22; 881 .; DOI:10.1186/s13063-021-05850-0
Wharton-Smith A, Horter SCB, Douch E, Gray NSB, James N, et al.
Trials. 4 December 2021; Volume 22; 881 .; DOI:10.1186/s13063-021-05850-0
BACKGROUND
Addressing the global burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) requires identification of shorter, less toxic treatment regimens. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is currently conducting a phase II/III randomised controlled clinical trial, to find more effective, shorter and tolerable treatments for people with MDR-TB. Recruitment to the trial in Uzbekistan has been slower than expected; we aimed to study patient and health worker experiences of the trial, examining potential factors perceived to impede and facilitate trial recruitment, as well as general perceptions of clinical research in this context.
METHODS
We conducted a qualitative study using maximum variation, purposive sampling of participants. We carried out in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) guided by semi-structured topic guides. In December 2019 and January 2020, 26 interviews were conducted with patients, Ministry of Health (MoH) and MSF staff and trial health workers, to explore challenges and barriers to patient recruitment as well as perceptions of the trial and research in general. Preliminary findings from the interviews informed three subsequent focus group discussions held with patients, nurses and counsellors. Focus groups adopted a person-centred design, brainstorming potential solutions to problems and barriers. Interviews and FGDs were audio recorded, translated and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis, drawing on constant comparison, was used to analyse the data.
RESULTS
Health system contexts may compete with new approaches especially when legislative health regulations or policy around treatment is ingrained in staff beliefs, perceptions and practice, which can undermine clinical trial recruitment. Trust plays a significant role in how patients engage with the trial. Decision-making processes are dynamic and associated with relationship to diagnosis, assimilation of information, previous knowledge or experience and influence of peers and close relations.
CONCLUSIONS
This qualitative analysis highlights ways in which insights developed together with patients and healthcare workers might inform approaches towards improved recruitment into trials, with the overall objective of delivering evidence for better treatments.
Addressing the global burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) requires identification of shorter, less toxic treatment regimens. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is currently conducting a phase II/III randomised controlled clinical trial, to find more effective, shorter and tolerable treatments for people with MDR-TB. Recruitment to the trial in Uzbekistan has been slower than expected; we aimed to study patient and health worker experiences of the trial, examining potential factors perceived to impede and facilitate trial recruitment, as well as general perceptions of clinical research in this context.
METHODS
We conducted a qualitative study using maximum variation, purposive sampling of participants. We carried out in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) guided by semi-structured topic guides. In December 2019 and January 2020, 26 interviews were conducted with patients, Ministry of Health (MoH) and MSF staff and trial health workers, to explore challenges and barriers to patient recruitment as well as perceptions of the trial and research in general. Preliminary findings from the interviews informed three subsequent focus group discussions held with patients, nurses and counsellors. Focus groups adopted a person-centred design, brainstorming potential solutions to problems and barriers. Interviews and FGDs were audio recorded, translated and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis, drawing on constant comparison, was used to analyse the data.
RESULTS
Health system contexts may compete with new approaches especially when legislative health regulations or policy around treatment is ingrained in staff beliefs, perceptions and practice, which can undermine clinical trial recruitment. Trust plays a significant role in how patients engage with the trial. Decision-making processes are dynamic and associated with relationship to diagnosis, assimilation of information, previous knowledge or experience and influence of peers and close relations.
CONCLUSIONS
This qualitative analysis highlights ways in which insights developed together with patients and healthcare workers might inform approaches towards improved recruitment into trials, with the overall objective of delivering evidence for better treatments.
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
BMC Medical Ethics. 26 February 2015; Volume 16; 10.; DOI:10.1186/s12910-015-0002-3
Schopper D, Dawson A, Upshur R, Ahmad ASI, Jesani A, et al.
BMC Medical Ethics. 26 February 2015; Volume 16; 10.; DOI:10.1186/s12910-015-0002-3
BACKGROUND
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is one of the world’s leading humanitarian medical organizations. The increased emphasis in MSF on research led to the creation of an ethics review board (ERB) in 2001. The ERB has
encouraged innovation in the review of proposals and the interaction between the ERB and the organization. This has led to some of the advances in ethics governance described in this paper.
DISCUSSION
We first update our previous work from 2009 describing ERB performance and then highlight five innovative practices:
• A new framework to guide ethics review
• The introduction of a policy exempting a posteriori analysis of routinely collected data
• The preapproval of “emergency” protocols
• General ethical approval of “routine surveys”
• Evaluating the impact of approved studies
The new framework encourages a conversation about ethical issues, rather than imposing quasi-legalistic rules, is more engaged with the specific MSF research context and gives greater prominence to certain values and
principles. Some of the innovations implemented by the ERB, such as review exemption or approval of generic protocols, may run counter to many standard operating procedures. We argue that much standard practice in research ethics review ought to be open to challenge and revision. Continued interaction between MSF researchers and independent ERB members has allowed for progressive innovations based on a trustful and respectful partnership between the ERB and the researchers. In the future, three areas merit particular attention. First, the impact of the new framework should be assessed. Second, the impact of research needs to be defined more precisely as a first step towards being meaningfully assessed, including changes of impact over time. Finally, the dialogue between the MSF ERB and the ethics committees in the study countries should be enhanced.
SUMMARY
We hope that the innovations in research ethics governance described may be relevant for other organisations carrying out research in fragile contexts and for ethics committees reviewing such research.
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is one of the world’s leading humanitarian medical organizations. The increased emphasis in MSF on research led to the creation of an ethics review board (ERB) in 2001. The ERB has
encouraged innovation in the review of proposals and the interaction between the ERB and the organization. This has led to some of the advances in ethics governance described in this paper.
DISCUSSION
We first update our previous work from 2009 describing ERB performance and then highlight five innovative practices:
• A new framework to guide ethics review
• The introduction of a policy exempting a posteriori analysis of routinely collected data
• The preapproval of “emergency” protocols
• General ethical approval of “routine surveys”
• Evaluating the impact of approved studies
The new framework encourages a conversation about ethical issues, rather than imposing quasi-legalistic rules, is more engaged with the specific MSF research context and gives greater prominence to certain values and
principles. Some of the innovations implemented by the ERB, such as review exemption or approval of generic protocols, may run counter to many standard operating procedures. We argue that much standard practice in research ethics review ought to be open to challenge and revision. Continued interaction between MSF researchers and independent ERB members has allowed for progressive innovations based on a trustful and respectful partnership between the ERB and the researchers. In the future, three areas merit particular attention. First, the impact of the new framework should be assessed. Second, the impact of research needs to be defined more precisely as a first step towards being meaningfully assessed, including changes of impact over time. Finally, the dialogue between the MSF ERB and the ethics committees in the study countries should be enhanced.
SUMMARY
We hope that the innovations in research ethics governance described may be relevant for other organisations carrying out research in fragile contexts and for ethics committees reviewing such research.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
PLOS Med. 28 July 2009; Volume 6 (Issue 7); e1000115.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000115
Schopper D, Upshur R, Matthys F, Singh JA, Bandewar SS, et al.
PLOS Med. 28 July 2009; Volume 6 (Issue 7); e1000115.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000115
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
BMC Infect Dis. 16 September 2020; Volume 20 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/s12879-020-05407-7
Horter SCB, Stringer B, Gray NSB, Parpieva N, Safaev K, et al.
BMC Infect Dis. 16 September 2020; Volume 20 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/s12879-020-05407-7
Introduction: Person-centred care, an internationally recognised priority, describes the involvement of people in their care and treatment decisions, and the consideration of their needs and priorities within service delivery. Clarity is required regarding how it may be implemented in practice within different contexts. The standard multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment regimen is lengthy, toxic and insufficiently effective. 2019 World Health Organisation guidelines include a shorter (9-11-month) regimen and recommend that people with MDR-TB be involved in the choice of treatment option. We examine the perspectives and experiences of people with MDR-TB and health-care workers (HCW) regarding person-centred care in an MDR-TB programme in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, run by Médecins Sans Frontières and the Ministry of Health.
Methods: A qualitative study comprising 48 interviews with 24 people with MDR-TB and 20 HCW was conducted in June-July 2019. Participants were recruited purposively to include a range of treatment-taking experiences and professional positions. Interview data were analysed thematically using coding to identify emerging patterns, concepts, and categories relating to person-centred care, with Nvivo12.
Results: People with MDR-TB were unfamiliar with shared decision-making and felt uncomfortable taking responsibility for their treatment choice. HCW were viewed as having greater knowledge and expertise, and patients trusted HCW to act in their best interests, deferring the choice of appropriate treatment course to them. HCW had concerns about involving people in treatment choices, preferring that doctors made decisions. People with MDR-TB wanted to be involved in discussions about their treatment, and have their preference sought, and were comfortable choosing whether treatment was ambulatory or hospital-based. Participants felt it important that people with MDR-TB had knowledge and understanding about their treatment and disease, to foster their sense of preparedness and ownership for treatment. Involving people in their care was said to motivate sustained treatment-taking, and it appeared important to have evidence of treatment need and effect.
Conclusions: There is a preference for doctors choosing the treatment regimen, linked to shared decision-making unfamiliarity and practitioner-patient knowledge imbalance. Involving people in their care, through discussions, information, and preference-seeking could foster ownership and self-responsibility, supporting sustained engagement with treatment.
Methods: A qualitative study comprising 48 interviews with 24 people with MDR-TB and 20 HCW was conducted in June-July 2019. Participants were recruited purposively to include a range of treatment-taking experiences and professional positions. Interview data were analysed thematically using coding to identify emerging patterns, concepts, and categories relating to person-centred care, with Nvivo12.
Results: People with MDR-TB were unfamiliar with shared decision-making and felt uncomfortable taking responsibility for their treatment choice. HCW were viewed as having greater knowledge and expertise, and patients trusted HCW to act in their best interests, deferring the choice of appropriate treatment course to them. HCW had concerns about involving people in treatment choices, preferring that doctors made decisions. People with MDR-TB wanted to be involved in discussions about their treatment, and have their preference sought, and were comfortable choosing whether treatment was ambulatory or hospital-based. Participants felt it important that people with MDR-TB had knowledge and understanding about their treatment and disease, to foster their sense of preparedness and ownership for treatment. Involving people in their care was said to motivate sustained treatment-taking, and it appeared important to have evidence of treatment need and effect.
Conclusions: There is a preference for doctors choosing the treatment regimen, linked to shared decision-making unfamiliarity and practitioner-patient knowledge imbalance. Involving people in their care, through discussions, information, and preference-seeking could foster ownership and self-responsibility, supporting sustained engagement with treatment.
Journal Article > ResearchAbstract Only
Trop Med Int Health. 6 January 2021; Volume 26 (Issue 4); 421-427.; DOI:10.1111/tmi.13543
Gil H, Margaryan H, Azamat I, Ziba B, Bayram H, et al.
Trop Med Int Health. 6 January 2021; Volume 26 (Issue 4); 421-427.; DOI:10.1111/tmi.13543
OBJECTIVES
In this retrospective study, we evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests (MT) for the detection of DR‐TB, compared to the gold standard liquid‐based Drug Susceptibility Testing (DST) in Karakalpakstan.
METHODS
A total of 6,670 specimens received in the Republican TB No 1 Hospital Laboratory of Karakalpakstan between January and July 2017 from new and retreatment patients were analyzed. Samples were tested using Xpert MTB/RIF and line probe assays (LPA) for the detection of mutations associated with resistance. The sensitivity and specificity of MTs were calculated relative to results based on DST.
RESULTS
The accuracy of MT for detection of rifampicin resistance was high, with sensitivity and specificity over 98%. However, we observed reduced sensitivity of LPA for detection of resistance; 86% for isoniazid (95%CI 82‐90%), 86% for fluoroquinolones (95%CI 68‐96%), 70% for capreomycin (95%CI 46‐88%) and 23% for kanamycin (95%CI 13‐35%).
CONCLUSIONS
We show that MTs are a useful tool for rapid and safe diagnosis of DR‐TB, however, clinicians should be aware of their limitations. Although detection of rifampicin resistance was highly accurate, our data suggests that resistance mutations circulating in the Republic of Karakalpakstan for other drugs were not detected by the methods used here. This merits further investigation.
In this retrospective study, we evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests (MT) for the detection of DR‐TB, compared to the gold standard liquid‐based Drug Susceptibility Testing (DST) in Karakalpakstan.
METHODS
A total of 6,670 specimens received in the Republican TB No 1 Hospital Laboratory of Karakalpakstan between January and July 2017 from new and retreatment patients were analyzed. Samples were tested using Xpert MTB/RIF and line probe assays (LPA) for the detection of mutations associated with resistance. The sensitivity and specificity of MTs were calculated relative to results based on DST.
RESULTS
The accuracy of MT for detection of rifampicin resistance was high, with sensitivity and specificity over 98%. However, we observed reduced sensitivity of LPA for detection of resistance; 86% for isoniazid (95%CI 82‐90%), 86% for fluoroquinolones (95%CI 68‐96%), 70% for capreomycin (95%CI 46‐88%) and 23% for kanamycin (95%CI 13‐35%).
CONCLUSIONS
We show that MTs are a useful tool for rapid and safe diagnosis of DR‐TB, however, clinicians should be aware of their limitations. Although detection of rifampicin resistance was highly accurate, our data suggests that resistance mutations circulating in the Republic of Karakalpakstan for other drugs were not detected by the methods used here. This merits further investigation.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
Public Health Ethics. 1 November 2016; Volume 10 (Issue 1); 49-61.; DOI:10.1093/phe/phw039
Schopper D, Ravinetto R, Schwartz L, Kamaara E, Sheel S, et al.
Public Health Ethics. 1 November 2016; Volume 10 (Issue 1); 49-61.; DOI:10.1093/phe/phw039
The Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) ethics review board (ERB) has been solicited in an unprecedented way to provide advice and review research protocols in an 'emergency' mode during the recent Ebola epidemic. Twenty-seven Ebola-related study protocols were reviewed between March 2014 and August 2015, ranging from epidemiological research, to behavioural research, infectivity studies and clinical trials with investigational products at (very) early development stages. This article examines the MSF ERB's experience addressing issues related to both the process of review and substantive ethical issues in this context. These topics include lack of policies regarding blood sample collection and use, and engaging communities regarding their storage and future use; exclusion of pregnant women from clinical and vaccine trials; and the difficulty of implementing timely and high-quality qualitative/anthropological research to consider potential upfront harms. Having noticed different standards across ethics committees (ECs), we propose that when multiple ethics reviews of clinical and vaccine trials are carried out during a public health emergency they should be accompanied by transparent communication between the ECs involved. The MSF ERB experience should trigger a broader discussion on the 'optimal' ethics review in an emergency outbreak and what enduring structural changes are needed to improve the ethics review process.