BACKGROUND
Conversion of sputum culture from positive to negative for M. tuberculosis is a key indicator of treatment response. An initial positive culture is a pre-requisite to observe conversion. Consequently, patients with a missing or negative initial culture are excluded from analyses of conversion outcomes. To identify the initial, or “baseline” culture, researchers must define a sample collection interval. An interval extending past treatment initiation can increase sample size but may introduce selection bias because patients without a positive pre-treatment culture must survive and remain in care to have a culture in the post-treatment interval.
METHODS
We used simulated data and data from the endTB observational cohort to investigate the potential for bias when extending baseline culture intervals past treatment initiation. We evaluated bias in the proportion with six-month conversion.
RESULTS
In simulation studies, the potential for bias depended on the proportion of patients missing a pre-treatment culture, proportion with conversion, proportion culture positive at treatment initiation, and proportion of patients missing a pre-treatment culture who would have been observed to be culture positive, had they had a culture. In observational data, the maximum potential for bias when reporting the proportion with conversion reached five percentage points in some sites.
CONCLUSION
Extending the allowable baseline interval past treatment initiation may introduce selection bias. If investigators choose to extend the baseline collection interval past treatment initiation, the proportion missing a pre-treatment culture and the number of deaths and losses to follow up during the post-treatment allowable interval should be clearly enumerated.
There are numerous challenges in delivering appropriate treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and the evidence base to guide those practices remains limited. We present the third updated Research Agenda for the programmatic management of drug-resistant TB (PMDT), assembled through a literature review and survey.
METHODS
Publications citing the 2008 research agenda and normative documents were reviewed for evidence gaps. Gaps were formulated into questions and grouped as in the 2008 research agenda: Laboratory Support, Treatment Strategy, Programmatically Relevant Research, Epidemiology, and Management of Contacts. A survey was distributed through snowball sampling to identify research priorities. Respondent priority rankings were scored and summarized by mean. Sensitivity analyses explored weighting and handling of missing rankings.
RESULTS
Thirty normative documents and publications were reviewed for stated research needs; these were collapsed into 56 research questions across 5 categories. Of more than 500 survey recipients, 133 ranked priorities within at least one category. Priorities within categories included new diagnostics and their effect on improving treatment outcomes, improved diagnosis of paucibacillary and extra pulmonary TB, and development of shorter, effective regimens. Interruption of nosocomial transmission and treatment for latent TB infection in contacts of known MDR−TB patients were also top priorities in their respective categories. Results were internally consistent and robust.
DISCUSSION
Priorities retained from the 2008 research agenda include shorter MDR-TB regimens and averting transmission. Limitations of recent advances were implied in the continued quest for: shorter regimens containing new drugs, rapid diagnostics that improve treatment outcomes, and improved methods of estimating burden without representative data.
CONCLUSION
There is continuity around the priorities for research in PMDT. Coordinated efforts to address questions regarding shorter treatment regimens, knowledge of disease burden without representative data, and treatment for LTBI in contacts of known DR-TB patients are essential to stem the epidemic of TB, including DR-TB.
Data suggest that treatment with newer TB drugs (linezolid [LZD], bedaquiline [BDQ] and delamanid [DLM]), used in Khayelitsha, South Africa, since 2012, reduces mortality due to rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB).
METHODS
This was a retrospective cohort study to assess 6-month mortality among RR-TB patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2019.
RESULTS
By 6 months, 236/2,008 (12%) patients died; 12% (78/651) among those diagnosed in 2008-2011, and respectively 8% (49/619) and 15% (109/738) with and without LZD/BDQ/DLM in 2012-2019. Multivariable analysis showed a small, non-significant mortality reduction with LZD/BDQ/DLM use compared to the 2008-2011 period (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.5-1.2). Inpatient treatment initiation (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 2.4-4.4), fluoroquinolone (FQ) resistance (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.8-4.2) and female sex (aOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0) were also associated with mortality. When restricted to 2012-2019, use of LZD/BDQ/DLM was associated with lower mortality (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.87).
CONCLUSIONS
While LZD/BDQ/DLM reduced 6-month mortality between 2012 and 2019, there was no significant effect overall. These findings may be due to initially restricted LZD/BDQ/DLM use for those with high-level resistance or treatment failure. Additional contributors include increased treatment initiation among individuals who would have otherwise died before treatment due to universal drug susceptibility testing from 2012, an effect that also likely contributed to higher mortality among females (survival through to care-seeking).