Conference Material > Abstract
Haider A, Finger F
Epicentre Scientific Day Paris 2021. 2021 June 10
In this presentation, we provide an overview of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Yemen and Afghanistan and describe the characteristics of patients seen selected MSF health facilities.
YEMEN
The true burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in Yemen is largely underestimated. The official surveillance data is limited to the southern governorates only. The country has experienced two waves so far and until May 31 2021, the total number of confirmed cases reported was 6 746 with 1 322 associated deaths. With limited testing capacity, PCR tests are spared for suspect cases presenting with severe symptoms only. MSF has been operating several COVID-19 projects in the southern and northern parts since the beginning of the pandemic. To date, MSF France has treated 2 138 COVID-19 patients. The in-hospital mortality was 30%. This presentation provides an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in Yemen and a description of patients seen at MSF health facilities.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan is currently experiencing a third wave of COVID-19. To date (31 May 2021) a total of nearly 73 000 confirmed cases and 3 000 deaths have been reported. The PCR testing capacity remains limited, particularly outside the national capital, and the characteristics of suspected patients are poorly described. MSF has bee supporting the pandemic response in Herat, the regional capital of Western Afghanistan, by running a COVID-19 triage at the Herat Regional Hospital and through case management. To date, over 31 000 patients have been received at the triage, and, if required, oriented towards appropriate care. In addition, patient data collected at the triage facility are a valuable surveillance tool since they allow to follow epidemic trends and to describe patient characteristics. Here we give an update about the current situation in Afghanistan and Herat and describe the characteristics of patients through the three epidemic waves.
YEMEN
The true burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in Yemen is largely underestimated. The official surveillance data is limited to the southern governorates only. The country has experienced two waves so far and until May 31 2021, the total number of confirmed cases reported was 6 746 with 1 322 associated deaths. With limited testing capacity, PCR tests are spared for suspect cases presenting with severe symptoms only. MSF has been operating several COVID-19 projects in the southern and northern parts since the beginning of the pandemic. To date, MSF France has treated 2 138 COVID-19 patients. The in-hospital mortality was 30%. This presentation provides an overview of the evolution of the pandemic in Yemen and a description of patients seen at MSF health facilities.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan is currently experiencing a third wave of COVID-19. To date (31 May 2021) a total of nearly 73 000 confirmed cases and 3 000 deaths have been reported. The PCR testing capacity remains limited, particularly outside the national capital, and the characteristics of suspected patients are poorly described. MSF has bee supporting the pandemic response in Herat, the regional capital of Western Afghanistan, by running a COVID-19 triage at the Herat Regional Hospital and through case management. To date, over 31 000 patients have been received at the triage, and, if required, oriented towards appropriate care. In addition, patient data collected at the triage facility are a valuable surveillance tool since they allow to follow epidemic trends and to describe patient characteristics. Here we give an update about the current situation in Afghanistan and Herat and describe the characteristics of patients through the three epidemic waves.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Med. 2021 April 1; Volume 18 (Issue 4); e1003587.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003587
Polonsky JA, Ivey M, Mazhar KA, Rahman Z, le Polain de Waroux O, et al.
PLOS Med. 2021 April 1; Volume 18 (Issue 4); e1003587.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003587
BACKGROUND
Unrest in Myanmar in August 2017 resulted in the movement of over 700,000 Rohingya refugees to overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. A large outbreak of diphtheria subsequently began in this population.
METHODS AND FINDINGS
Data were collected during mass vaccination campaigns (MVCs), contact tracing activities, and from 9 Diphtheria Treatment Centers (DTCs) operated by national and international organizations. These data were used to describe the epidemiological and clinical features and the control measures to prevent transmission, during the first 2 years of the outbreak. Between November 10, 2017 and November 9, 2019, 7,064 cases were reported: 285 (4.0%) laboratory-confirmed, 3,610 (51.1%) probable, and 3,169 (44.9%) suspected cases. The crude attack rate was 51.5 cases per 10,000 person-years, and epidemic doubling time was 4.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2-4.7) during the exponential growth phase. The median age was 10 years (range 0-85), and 3,126 (44.3%) were male. The typical symptoms were sore throat (93.5%), fever (86.0%), pseudomembrane (34.7%), and gross cervical lymphadenopathy (GCL; 30.6%). Diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) was administered to 1,062 (89.0%) out of 1,193 eligible patients, with adverse reactions following among 229 (21.6%). There were 45 deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.6%). Household contacts for 5,702 (80.7%) of 7,064 cases were successfully traced. A total of 41,452 contacts were identified, of whom 40,364 (97.4%) consented to begin chemoprophylaxis; adherence was 55.0% (N = 22,218) at 3-day follow-up. Unvaccinated household contacts were vaccinated with 3 doses (with 4-week interval), while a booster dose was administered if the primary vaccination schedule had been completed. The proportion of contacts vaccinated was 64.7% overall. Three MVC rounds were conducted, with administrative coverage varying between 88.5% and 110.4%. Pentavalent vaccine was administered to those aged 6 weeks to 6 years, while tetanus and diphtheria (Td) vaccine was administered to those aged 7 years and older. Lack of adequate diagnostic capacity to confirm cases was the main limitation, with a majority of cases unconfirmed and the proportion of true diphtheria cases unknown.
CONCLUSIONS
To our knowledge, this is the largest reported diphtheria outbreak in refugee settings. We observed that high population density, poor living conditions, and fast growth rate were associated with explosive expansion of the outbreak during the initial exponential growth phase. Three rounds of mass vaccinations targeting those aged 6 weeks to 14 years were associated with only modestly reduced transmission, and additional public health measures were necessary to end the outbreak. This outbreak has a long-lasting tail, with Rt oscillating at around 1 for an extended period. An adequate global DAT stockpile needs to be maintained. All populations must have access to health services and routine vaccination, and this access must be maintained during humanitarian crises.
Unrest in Myanmar in August 2017 resulted in the movement of over 700,000 Rohingya refugees to overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. A large outbreak of diphtheria subsequently began in this population.
METHODS AND FINDINGS
Data were collected during mass vaccination campaigns (MVCs), contact tracing activities, and from 9 Diphtheria Treatment Centers (DTCs) operated by national and international organizations. These data were used to describe the epidemiological and clinical features and the control measures to prevent transmission, during the first 2 years of the outbreak. Between November 10, 2017 and November 9, 2019, 7,064 cases were reported: 285 (4.0%) laboratory-confirmed, 3,610 (51.1%) probable, and 3,169 (44.9%) suspected cases. The crude attack rate was 51.5 cases per 10,000 person-years, and epidemic doubling time was 4.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2-4.7) during the exponential growth phase. The median age was 10 years (range 0-85), and 3,126 (44.3%) were male. The typical symptoms were sore throat (93.5%), fever (86.0%), pseudomembrane (34.7%), and gross cervical lymphadenopathy (GCL; 30.6%). Diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) was administered to 1,062 (89.0%) out of 1,193 eligible patients, with adverse reactions following among 229 (21.6%). There were 45 deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.6%). Household contacts for 5,702 (80.7%) of 7,064 cases were successfully traced. A total of 41,452 contacts were identified, of whom 40,364 (97.4%) consented to begin chemoprophylaxis; adherence was 55.0% (N = 22,218) at 3-day follow-up. Unvaccinated household contacts were vaccinated with 3 doses (with 4-week interval), while a booster dose was administered if the primary vaccination schedule had been completed. The proportion of contacts vaccinated was 64.7% overall. Three MVC rounds were conducted, with administrative coverage varying between 88.5% and 110.4%. Pentavalent vaccine was administered to those aged 6 weeks to 6 years, while tetanus and diphtheria (Td) vaccine was administered to those aged 7 years and older. Lack of adequate diagnostic capacity to confirm cases was the main limitation, with a majority of cases unconfirmed and the proportion of true diphtheria cases unknown.
CONCLUSIONS
To our knowledge, this is the largest reported diphtheria outbreak in refugee settings. We observed that high population density, poor living conditions, and fast growth rate were associated with explosive expansion of the outbreak during the initial exponential growth phase. Three rounds of mass vaccinations targeting those aged 6 weeks to 14 years were associated with only modestly reduced transmission, and additional public health measures were necessary to end the outbreak. This outbreak has a long-lasting tail, with Rt oscillating at around 1 for an extended period. An adequate global DAT stockpile needs to be maintained. All populations must have access to health services and routine vaccination, and this access must be maintained during humanitarian crises.
Journal Article > LetterFull Text
Lancet Infect Dis. 2024 April 30; Volume S1473-3099 (Issue 24); 00237-8.; DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00237-8
Finger F, Heitzinger K, Berendes D, Ciglenecki I, Dominguez M, et al.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2024 April 30; Volume S1473-3099 (Issue 24); 00237-8.; DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00237-8
Conference Material > Slide Presentation
Finger F, Mimbu N, Ratnayake R, Meakin S, Bahati JB, et al.
MSF Scientific Day International 2024. 2024 May 16; DOI:10.57740/tC1av3293
Conference Material > Video (talk)
Finger F
Epicentre Scientific Day Paris 2023. 2023 June 8
English
Français
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 March 1; Volume 21 (Issue 3); e37-e48.; DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30479-5
Ratnayake R, Finger F, Azman AS, Lantagne D, Funk S, et al.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 March 1; Volume 21 (Issue 3); e37-e48.; DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30479-5
Globally, cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control. Although mass campaigns covering large populations are commonly used to control cholera, spatial targeting of case households and their radius is emerging as a potentially efficient strategy. We did a Scoping Review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions delivered through case-area targeted intervention, its optimal spatiotemporal scale, and its effectiveness in reducing transmission. 53 articles were retrieved. We found that antibiotic chemoprophylaxis, point-of-use water treatment, and hygiene promotion can rapidly reduce household transmission, and single-dose vaccination can extend the duration of protection within the radius of households. Evidence supports a high-risk spatiotemporal zone of 100 m around case households, for 7 days. Two evaluations separately showed reductions in household transmission when targeting case households, and in size and duration of case clusters when targeting radii. Although case-area targeted intervention shows promise for outbreak control, it is critically dependent on early detection capacity and requires prospective evaluation of intervention packages.
Conference Material > Video (talk)
Mimbu N, Finger F
Epicentre Scientific Day Paris 2023. 2023 June 8
English
Français
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 May 23; Volume 18 (Issue 5); e1008800.; DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008800
Jarvis CI, Gimma A, Finger F, Morris TP, Thompson JA, et al.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 May 23; Volume 18 (Issue 5); e1008800.; DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008800
The fraction of cases reported, known as 'reporting', is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an epidemic which is, by definition, not observed. We introduce a simple statistical method for estimating reporting, initially developed for the response to Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018-2020. This approach uses transmission chain data typically gathered through case investigation and contact tracing, and uses the proportion of investigated cases with a known, reported infector as a proxy for reporting. Using simulated epidemics, we study how this method performs for different outbreak sizes and reporting levels. Results suggest that our method has low bias, reasonable precision, and despite sub-optimal coverage, usually provides estimates within close range (5-10%) of the true value. Being fast and simple, this method could be useful for estimating reporting in real-time in settings where person-to-person transmission is the main driver of the epidemic, and where case investigation is routinely performed as part of surveillance and contact tracing activities.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Lancet Global Health. 2022 April 21; Volume S2214-109X (Issue 22); 00007-9.; DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00007-9
Perez-Saez J, Lessler J, Lee EC, Luquero FJ, Malembaka EB, et al.
Lancet Global Health. 2022 April 21; Volume S2214-109X (Issue 22); 00007-9.; DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00007-9
BACKGROUND
Cholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. Knowing in what months and where cholera tends to occur across the continent could aid in improving efforts to eliminate cholera as a public health concern. However, largely due to the absence of unified large-scale datasets, no continent-wide estimates exist. In this study, we aimed to estimate cholera seasonality across SSA and explore the correlation between hydroclimatic variables and cholera seasonality.
METHODS
Using the global cholera database of the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, we developed statistical models to synthesise data across spatial and temporal scales to infer the seasonality of excess (defined as incidence higher than the 2010-16 mean incidence rate) suspected cholera occurrence in SSA. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to infer the monthly risk of excess cholera at the first and second administrative levels. Seasonality patterns were then grouped into spatial clusters. Finally, we studied the association between seasonality estimates and hydroclimatic variables (mean monthly fraction of area flooded, mean monthly air temperature, and cumulative monthly precipitation).
FINDINGS
24 (71%) of the 34 countries studied had seasonal patterns of excess cholera risk, corresponding to approximately 86% of the SSA population. 12 (50%) of these 24 countries also had subnational differences in seasonality patterns, with strong differences in seasonality strength between regions. Seasonality patterns clustered into two macroregions (west Africa and the Sahel vs eastern and southern Africa), which were composed of subregional clusters with varying degrees of seasonality. Exploratory association analysis found most consistent and positive correlations between cholera seasonality and precipitation and, to a lesser extent, between cholera seasonality and temperature and flooding.
INTERPRETATION
Widespread cholera seasonality in SSA offers opportunities for intervention planning. Further studies are needed to study the association between cholera and climate.
Cholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. Knowing in what months and where cholera tends to occur across the continent could aid in improving efforts to eliminate cholera as a public health concern. However, largely due to the absence of unified large-scale datasets, no continent-wide estimates exist. In this study, we aimed to estimate cholera seasonality across SSA and explore the correlation between hydroclimatic variables and cholera seasonality.
METHODS
Using the global cholera database of the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, we developed statistical models to synthesise data across spatial and temporal scales to infer the seasonality of excess (defined as incidence higher than the 2010-16 mean incidence rate) suspected cholera occurrence in SSA. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to infer the monthly risk of excess cholera at the first and second administrative levels. Seasonality patterns were then grouped into spatial clusters. Finally, we studied the association between seasonality estimates and hydroclimatic variables (mean monthly fraction of area flooded, mean monthly air temperature, and cumulative monthly precipitation).
FINDINGS
24 (71%) of the 34 countries studied had seasonal patterns of excess cholera risk, corresponding to approximately 86% of the SSA population. 12 (50%) of these 24 countries also had subnational differences in seasonality patterns, with strong differences in seasonality strength between regions. Seasonality patterns clustered into two macroregions (west Africa and the Sahel vs eastern and southern Africa), which were composed of subregional clusters with varying degrees of seasonality. Exploratory association analysis found most consistent and positive correlations between cholera seasonality and precipitation and, to a lesser extent, between cholera seasonality and temperature and flooding.
INTERPRETATION
Widespread cholera seasonality in SSA offers opportunities for intervention planning. Further studies are needed to study the association between cholera and climate.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 2021 April 29; Volume 16 (Issue 4); e0250505.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250505
Mazhar KA, Finger F, Evers ES, Kuehne A, Ivey M, et al.
PLOS One. 2021 April 29; Volume 16 (Issue 4); e0250505.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250505
In the summer of 2017, an estimated 745,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh in what has been described as one of the largest and fastest growing refugee crises in the world. Among numerous health concerns, an outbreak of acute jaundice syndrome (AJS) was detected by the disease surveillance system in early 2018 among the refugee population. This paper describes the investigation into the increase in AJS cases, the process and results of the investigation, which were strongly suggestive of a large outbreak due to hepatitis A virus (HAV). An enhanced serological investigation was conducted between 28 February to 26 March 2018 to determine the etiologies and risk factors associated with the outbreak. A total of 275 samples were collected from 18 health facilities reporting AJS cases. Blood samples were collected from all patients fulfilling the study specific case definition and inclusion criteria, and tested for antibody responses using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Out of the 275 samples, 206 were positive for one of the agents tested. The laboratory results confirmed multiple etiologies including 154 (56%) samples tested positive for hepatitis A, 1 (0.4%) positive for hepatitis E, 36 (13%) positive for hepatitis B, 25 (9%) positive for hepatitis C, and 14 (5%) positive for leptospirosis. Among all specimens tested 24 (9%) showed evidence of co-infections with multiple etiologies. Hepatitis A and E are commonly found in refugee camps and have similar clinical presentations. In the absence of robust testing capacity when the epidemic was identified through syndromic reporting, a particular concern was that of a hepatitis E outbreak, for which immunity tends to be limited, and which may be particularly severe among pregnant women. This report highlights the challenges of identifying causative agents in such settings and the resources required to do so. Results from the month-long enhanced investigation did not point out widespread hepatitis E virus (HEV) transmission, but instead strongly suggested a large-scale hepatitis A outbreak of milder consequences, and highlighted a number of other concomitant causes of AJS (acute hepatitis B, hepatitis C, Leptospirosis), albeit most likely at sporadic level. Results strengthen the need for further water and sanitation interventions and are a stark reminder of the risk of other epidemics transmitted through similar routes in such settings, particularly dysentery and cholera. It also highlights the need to ensure clinical management capacity for potentially chronic conditions in this vulnerable population.