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Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness | Journal Article / Research | MSF Science Portal
Journal Article
|Research

Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness

Checchi F, Filipe JAN, Haydon DT, Chandramohan D, Chappuis F
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters. METHODS: We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites. RESULTS: Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment. CONCLUSION: Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.

Countries

Uganda

Languages

English
DOI
10.1186/1471-2334-8-16
Published Date
08 Feb 2008
PubMed ID
18261232
Journal
BMC Infectious Diseases
Volume | Issue | Pages
Volume 8, Issue 1
Issue Date
2008-02-08
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