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Journal Article > Research

Decreased risk of HIV-associated TB during antiretroviral therapy expansion in rural Eswatini from 2009 to 2016: a cohort and population-based analysis

Kerschberger B, Schomaker M, Telnov A, Vambe D, Kisyeri N, Sikhondze W, Pasipamire L, Ngwenya SM, Rusch B, Ciglenecki I, Boulle AM
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This paper assesses patient- and population-level trends in TB notifications during rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Eswatini which has an extremely high incidence of both TB and HIV.

METHODS
Patient- and population-level predictors and rates of HIV-associated TB were examined in the Shiselweni region in Eswatini from 2009 to 2016. Annual population-level denominators obtained from projected census data and prevalence estimates obtained from population-based surveys were combined with individual-level TB treatment data. Patient- and population-level predictors of HIV-associated TB were assessed with multivariate logistic and multivariate negative binomial regression models.

RESULTS
Of 11 328 TB cases, 71.4% were HIV co-infected and 51.8% were women. TB notifications decreased fivefold between 2009 and 2016, from 1341 to 269 cases per 100 000 person-years. The decline was sixfold in PLHIV vs. threefold in the HIV-negative population. Main patient-level predictors of HIV-associated TB were recurrent TB treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.65), negative (aOR 1.31, 1.15-1.49) and missing (aOR 1.30, 1.11-1.53) bacteriological status and diagnosis at secondary healthcare level (aOR 1.18, 1.06-1.33). Compared with 2009, the probability of TB decreased for all years from 2011 (aOR 0.69, 0.58-0.83) to 2016 (aOR 0.54, 0.43-0.69). The most pronounced population-level predictor of TB was HIV-positive status (adjusted incidence risk ratio 19.47, 14.89-25.46).

CONCLUSIONS
This high HIV-TB prevalence setting experienced a rapid decline in TB notifications, most pronounced in PLHIV. Achievements in HIV-TB programming were likely contributing factors.
Countries
Eswatini
Subject Area
tuberculosis
DOI
10.1111/tmi.13290
Published Date
19-Sep-2019
PubMed ID
31310029
Languages
English
Journal
Tropical Medicine and International Health
Volume / Issue / Pages
Volume 24, Issue 9, Pages 1114-1127
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