Abstract
OBJECTIVE
We estimated changes in the HIV incidence from 2013 to 2018 in Eshowe/Mbongolwane, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa where Médecins Sans Frontières is engaged in providing HIV testing and care since 2011.
METHODS
Using data from two cross-sectional household-based surveys conducted in 2013 and 2018, with consenting participants aged 15-59 years, we applied the incidence estimation frameworks of Mahiane et al and Kassanjee et al.
RESULTS
In total 5599 (62.4% women) and 3276 (65.9% women) individuals were included in 2013 and 2018 respectively. We found a mean incidence in women 20-29 years of 2.71 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.23; 4.19) in 2013 and 0.4 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.0; 1.5) in 2018. The incidence in men 20-29 years was 1.91 cases per 100 person years (95% CI: 0.87; 2.93) in 2013 and 0.53 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.0; 1.4) s in 2018. The incidence decline among women aged 15-19 was -0.34 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: -1.31;0.64).
CONCLUSIONS
The lack of evidence of incidence decline among adolescent girls is noteworthy and disconcerting our findings suggest that large scale surveys should seriously consider focusing their resources on the core group of women aged 15-19.
