Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 May 7; Volume 115 (Issue 21); DOI:10.1073/pnas.1802298115
Brynildsrud OB, Eldholm V, Bohlin J, Uadiale K, Obaro S, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 May 7; Volume 115 (Issue 21); DOI:10.1073/pnas.1802298115
In the African meningitis belt, a region of sub-Saharan Africa comprising 22 countries from Senegal in the west to Ethiopia in the east, large epidemics of serogroup A meningococcal meningitis have occurred periodically. After gradual introduction from 2010 of mass vaccination with a monovalent meningococcal A conjugate vaccine, serogroup A epidemics have been eliminated. Starting in 2013, the northwestern part of Nigeria has been affected by yearly outbreaks of meningitis caused by a novel strain of serogroup C Neisseria meningitidis (NmC). In 2015, the strain spread to the neighboring country Niger, where it caused a severe epidemic. Following a relative calm in 2016, the largest ever recorded epidemic of NmC broke out in Nigeria in 2017. Here, we describe the recent evolution of this new outbreak strain and show how the acquisition of capsule genes and virulence factors by a strain previously circulating asymptomatically in the African population led to the emergence of a virulent pathogen. This study illustrates the power of long-read whole-genome sequencing, combined with Illumina sequencing, for high-resolution epidemiological investigations.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 April 10; Volume 114 (Issue 17); 4436-4441.; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1617218114
Moore SM, Azman AS, Zaitchik BF, Mintz ED, Brunkard J, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 April 10; Volume 114 (Issue 17); 4436-4441.; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1617218114
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Niño conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Niño events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Niño years. Cholera incidence during El Niño years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Niño years, likely mediated by El Niño's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 February 13 (Issue 9)
Lau MSY, Dalziel BD, Funk S, McClelland A, Tiffany A, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 February 13 (Issue 9)
The unprecedented scale of the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015) has prompted an explosion of efforts to understand the transmission dynamics of the virus and to analyze the performance of possible containment strategies. Models have focused primarily on the reproductive numbers of the disease that represent the average number of secondary infections produced by a random infectious individual. However, these population-level estimates may conflate important systematic variation in the number of cases generated by infected individuals, particularly found in spatially localized transmission and superspreading events. Although superspreading features prominently in first-hand narratives of Ebola transmission, its dynamics have not been systematically characterized, hindering refinements of future epidemic predictions and explorations of targeted interventions. We used Bayesian model inference to integrate individual-level spatial information with other epidemiological data of community-based (undetected within clinical-care systems) cases and to explicitly infer distribution of the cases generated by each infected individual. Our results show that superspreaders play a key role in sustaining onward transmission of the epidemic, and they are responsible for a significant proportion ([Formula: see text]61%) of the infections. Our results also suggest age as a key demographic predictor for superspreading. We also show that community-based cases may have progressed more rapidly than those notified within clinical-care systems, and most transmission events occurred in a relatively short distance (with median value of 2.51 km). Our results stress the importance of characterizing superspreading of Ebola, enhance our current understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics, and highlight the potential importance of targeted control measures.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 September 29; Volume 117 (Issue 39); 24567-24574.; DOI:10.1073/pnas.2004468117
Metras R, Edmunds WJ, Youssouffi C, Dommergues L, Fournié G, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 September 29; Volume 117 (Issue 39); 24567-24574.; DOI:10.1073/pnas.2004468117
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic, arboviral hemorrhagic fever threatening livestock and humans mainly in Africa. RVF is of global concern, having expanded its geographical range over the last decades. The impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. Here, we fitted a mathematical model to seroprevalence livestock and human RVF case data from the 2018–2019 epidemic in Mayotte to estimate viral transmission among livestock, and spillover from livestock to humans through both direct contact and vector-mediated routes. Model simulations were used to assess the impact of vaccination on reducing the epidemic size. The rate of spillover by direct contact was about twice as high as vector transmission. Assuming 30% of the population were farmers, each transmission route contributed to 45% and 55% of the number of human infections, respectively. Reactive vaccination immunizing 20% of the livestock population reduced the number of human cases by 30%. Vaccinating 1 mo later required using 50% more vaccine doses for a similar reduction. Vaccinating only farmers required 10 times as more vaccine doses for a similar reduction in human cases. Finally, with 52.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] [42.9–59.4]) of livestock immune at the end of the epidemic wave, viral reemergence in the next rainy season (2019–2020) is unlikely. Coordinated human and animal health surveillance, and timely livestock vaccination appear to be key to controlling RVF in this setting. We furthermore demonstrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.