Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 March 13; Volume 148; DOI:10.1017/S095026882000062X
Ferreras E, Blake A, Chewe O, Mwaba J, Zulu G, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 March 13; Volume 148; DOI:10.1017/S095026882000062X
We conducted a matched case-control (MCC), test-negative case-control (TNCC) and case-cohort study in 2016 in Lusaka, Zambia, following a mass vaccination campaign. Confirmed cholera cases served as cases in all three study designs. In the TNCC, control-subjects were cases with negative cholera culture and polymerase chain reaction results. Matched controls by age and sex were selected among neighbours of the confirmed cases in the MCC study. For the case-cohort study, we recruited a cohort of randomly selected individuals living in areas considered at-risk of cholera. We recruited 211 suspected cases (66 confirmed cholera cases and 145 non-cholera diarrhoea cases), 1055 matched controls and a cohort of 921. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was 88.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42.7–97.8) in the MCC study, 80.2% (95% CI: 16.9–95.3) in the TNCC design and 89.4% (95% CI: 64.6–96.9) in the case-cohort study. Three study designs confirmed the short-term effectiveness of single dose OCV. Major healthcare-seeking behaviour bias did not appear to affect our estimates. Most of the protection among vaccinated individuals could be attributed to the direct effect of the vaccine.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 October 11; Volume 142 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813002562
Grandesso F, Allan M, Jean-Simon PSJ, Boncy J, Blake A, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 October 11; Volume 142 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813002562
SUMMARY Two community-based density case-control studies were performed to assess risk factors for cholera transmission during inter-peak periods of the ongoing epidemic in two Haitian urban settings, Gonaives and Carrefour. The strongest associations were: close contact with cholera patients (sharing latrines, visiting cholera patients, helping someone with diarrhoea), eating food from street vendors and washing dishes with untreated water. Protective factors were: drinking chlorinated water, receiving prevention messages via television, church or training sessions, and high household socioeconomic level. These findings suggest that, in addition to contaminated water, factors related to direct and indirect inter-human contact play an important role in cholera transmission during inter-peak periods. In order to reduce cholera transmission in Haiti intensive preventive measures such as hygiene promotion and awareness campaigns should be implemented during inter-peak lulls, when prevention activities are typically scaled back.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 October 5; Volume 140 (Issue 8); 1356-1365.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268811002032
Bharti N, Broutin H, Grais RF, Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 October 5; Volume 140 (Issue 8); 1356-1365.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268811002032
Throughout the African meningitis belt, meningococcal meningitis outbreaks occur only during the dry season. Measles in Niger exhibits similar seasonality, where increased population density during the dry season probably escalates measles transmission. Because meningococcal meningitis and measles are both directly transmitted, we propose that host aggregation also impacts the transmission of meningococcal meningitis. Although climate affects broad meningococcal meningitis seasonality, we focus on the less examined role of human density at a finer spatial scale. By analysing spatial patterns of suspected cases of meningococcal meningitis, we show fewer absences of suspected cases in districts along primary roads, similar to measles fadeouts in the same Nigerien metapopulation. We further show that, following periods during no suspected cases, districts with high reappearance rates of meningococcal meningitis also have high measles reintroduction rates. Despite many biological and epidemiological differences, similar seasonal and spatial patterns emerge from the dynamics of both diseases. This analysis enhances our understanding of spatial patterns and disease transmission and suggests hotspots for infection and potential target areas for meningococcal meningitis surveillance and intervention.
Journal Article > ResearchAbstract
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 June 21; Volume 139 (Issue 10); DOI:10.1017/S0950268811001075
Guerrier G, Daronat JM, Morisse L, Yvon JF, Pappas G
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 June 21; Volume 139 (Issue 10); DOI:10.1017/S0950268811001075
High brucellosis seroprevalence rates in domestic swine herds have been reported in Wallis and Futuna Islands and are associated with a significant burden of human infection by Brucella suis, a species that is rarely incriminated in human disease. Between 2003 and 2010, seven patients had a positive blood culture for B. suis biovar 1, 11 symptomatic patients had a positive Rose Bengal test (RBT) and a positive serum agglutination test (SAT) and three asymptomatic cases were found to be positive for RBT, SAT or ELISA IgM (after systematic screening of 52 family members of 15 index cases). Overall, Brucella infection was diagnosed in 21 people, corresponding to a mean annual incidence of 19 cases/100 000 inhabitants. Compared to series of patients infected with other more commonly encountered Brucella spp. such as B. melitensis and B. abortus, clinical presentation and percentage and distribution of complications were similar, apart from a marked observation of significantly increased median alanine aminotransferase levels, 20 times greater than upper normal rates, but not accompanied by any particular hepatic pathology. Wallis and Futuna, where people live in close proximity to animals and where the cultural significance of pig-raising precludes the implementation of adequate veterinary preventive measures, thus represents one of the few known B. suis foci worldwide and allows for evaluation of the peculiarities of this infection.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2018 May 24; Volume 146 (Issue 12); DOI:10.1017/S0950268818001097
Azman AS, Ciglenecki I, Oeser C, Said B, Tedder IRS, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2018 May 24; Volume 146 (Issue 12); DOI:10.1017/S0950268818001097
Hepatitis E virus genotype 1 (HEV G1) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa and Asia. HEV G1's natural history, including the incubation period, remains poorly understood, hindering surveillance efforts and effective control. Using individual-level data from 85 travel-related HEV G1 cases in England and Wales, we estimate the incubation period distribution using survival analysis methods, which allow for appropriate inference when only time ranges, rather than exact times are known for the exposure to HEV and symptom onset. We estimated a 29.8-day (95% confidence interval (CI) 24.1-36.0) median incubation period with 5% of people expected to develop symptoms within 14.3 days (95% CI 10.1-21.7) and 95% within 61.9 days (95% CI 47.4-74.4) of exposure. These estimates can help refine clinical case definitions and inform the design of disease burden and intervention studies.
Journal Article > ResearchAbstract
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 September 1; Volume 138 (Issue 9); DOI:10.1017/S0950268809991385
Bharti N, Djibo A, Tatem AJ, McCabe CA, Bjørnstad ON, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 September 1; Volume 138 (Issue 9); DOI:10.1017/S0950268809991385
Though largely controlled in developed countries, measles remains a major global public health issue. Regional and local transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behaviour across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics helps define and predict outbreak patterns. Using spatially explicit reported cases from measles outbreaks in Niger, we explored how regional variations in movement and contact patterns relate to patterns of measles incidence. Because we expected to see lower rates of re-introductions in small, compared to large, populations, we measured the population-size corrected proportion of weeks with zero cases across districts to understand relative rates of measles re-introductions. We found that critical elements of spatial disease dynamics in Niger are agricultural seasonality, transnational contact clusters, and roads networks that facilitate host movement and connectivity. These results highlight the need to understand local patterns of seasonality, demographic characteristics, and spatial heterogeneities to inform vaccination policy.
Journal Article > ResearchAbstract
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 June 1; Volume 139 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1017/S0950268810001329
Metcalf CJ, Klepac P, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 June 1; Volume 139 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1017/S0950268810001329
Measles vaccine efficacy is higher at 12 months than 9 months because of maternal immunity, but delaying vaccination exposes the children most vulnerable to measles mortality to infection. We explored how this trade-off changes as a function of regionally varying epidemiological drivers, e.g. demography, transmission seasonality, and vaccination coverage. High birth rates and low coverage both favour early vaccination, and initiating vaccination at 9-11 months, then switching to 12-14 months can reduce case numbers. Overall however, increasing the age-window of vaccination decreases case numbers relative to vaccinating within a narrow age-window (e.g. 9-11 months). The width of the age-window that minimizes mortality varies as a function of birth rate, vaccination coverage and patterns of access to care. Our results suggest that locally age-targeted strategies, at both national and sub-national scales, tuned to local variation in birth rate, seasonality, and access to care may substantially decrease case numbers and fatalities for routine vaccination.
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Epidemiol Infect. 2016 August 11; Volume 144 (Issue 16); 3520-3526.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268816001758
Murphy RA, Okoli O, Essien I, Teicher CL, Elder G, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 August 11; Volume 144 (Issue 16); 3520-3526.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268816001758
The epidemiology of surgical site infections (SSIs) in surgical programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is inadequately described. We reviewed deep and organ-space SSIs occurring within a trauma project that had a high-quality microbiology partnership and active follow-up. Included patients underwent orthopaedic surgery in Teme Hospital (Port Harcourt, Nigeria) for trauma and subsequently developed a SSI requiring debridement and microbiological sampling. Data were collected from structured chart reviews and programmatic databases for 103 patients with suspected SSI [79% male, median age 30 years, interquartile range (IQR) 24-37]. SSIs were commonly detected post-discharge with 58% presenting >28 days after surgery. The most common pathogens were: Staphylococcus aureus (34%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (16%) and Enterobacter cloacae (11%). Thirty-three (32%) of infections were caused by a multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogen, including 15 patients with methicillin-resistant S. aureus. Antibiotics were initiated empirically for 43% of patients and after culture and sensitivity report in 32%. The median number of additional surgeries performed in patients with SSI was 5 (IQR 2-6), one patient died (1%), and amputation was performed or recommended in three patients. Our findings suggest the need for active long-term monitoring of SSIs, particularly those associated with MDR organisms, resulting in increased costs for readmission surgery and treatment with late-generation antibiotics.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 July 18; Volume 142 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813001696
Besa NC, Coldiron ME, Bakri A, Raji A, Nsuami MJ, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 July 18; Volume 142 (Issue 4); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813001696
SUMMARY A diphtheria outbreak occurred from February to November 2011 in the village of Kimba and its surrounding settlements, in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. We conducted a retrospective outbreak investigation in Kimba village and the surrounding settlements to better describe the extent and clinical characteristics of this outbreak. Ninety-eight cases met the criteria of the case definition of diphtheria, 63 (64·3%) of whom were children aged <10 years; 98% of cases had never been immunized against diphtheria. None of the 98 cases received diphtheria antitoxin, penicillin, or erythromycin during their illness. The overall case-fatality ratio was 21·4%, and was highest in children aged 0-4 years (42·9%). Low rates of immunization, delayed clinical recognition of diphtheria and absence of treatment with antitoxin and appropriate antibiotics contributed to this epidemic and its severity.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 August 1; Volume 134 (Issue 4); 845-849.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268805005716
Grais RF, De Radiguès X, Dubray C, Fermon F, Guerin PJ
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 August 1; Volume 134 (Issue 4); 845-849.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268805005716
The current WHO policy during measles outbreaks focuses on case management rather than reactive vaccination campaigns in urban areas of resource-poor countries having low vaccine coverage. Vaccination campaigns may be costly, or not timely enough to impact significantly on morbidity and mortality. We explored the time available for intervention during two recent epidemics. Our analysis suggests that the spread of measles in African urban settings may not be as fast as expected. Examining measles epidemic spread in Kinshasa (DRC), and Niamey (Niger) reveals a progression of smaller epidemics. Intervening with a mass campaign or in areas where cases have not yet been reported could slow the epidemic spread. The results of this preliminary analysis illustrate the importance of revisiting outbreak response plans.