Conference Material > Abstract
Jamaluddine Z, Chen Z, Abukmail H, Aly S, Elnakib S, et al.
MSF Scientific Day International 2024. 16 May 2024; DOI:10.57740/8ccHxF
INTRODUCTION
Since 7 October 2023, large-scale military operations in the Gaza Strip have resulted in an escalating public health crisis. Residents of Gaza are mostly displaced from their homes and living in overcrowded conditions with insufficient access to water, sanitation, and food, and health services have been considerably disrupted. To inform humanitarian and decision-making efforts, we aimed to estimate the project excess mortality from traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, maternal and newborn complications, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) under different future scenarios.
METHODS
We used five different models to project excess deaths from February to August 2024, considering three scenarios: (1) an immediate and permanent ceasefire; (2) the status quo, reflecting conditions from mid-October 2023 to mid-January 2024; and (3) a further escalation of the conflict. Using publicly available data and expert consultations, our analysis projected excess deaths resulting under each scenario. A model was developed to determine increased malnutrition (as an underlying cause).
RESULTS
Without epidemics, the ceasefire scenario would result in 6550 excess deaths, rising to 58,260 under the status quo, and 74,290 under escalation. With epidemics, these projections rise to 11,580, 66,720, and 85,750, respectively. Under the ceasefire scenario, infectious diseases would be the main cause of excess deaths (1,520 excess deaths without epidemics and 6,550 with epidemics). Traumatic injuries followed by infectious diseases would be the main causes of excess deaths in both the status quo (53,450 due to traumatic injuries; 2,120 due to infectious diseases without epidemics and 10,590 including epidemics) and escalation scenarios (68,650 due to traumatic injuries; 2,720 due to infectious diseases without epidemics and 14,180 with epidemics). Our projections indicate that, even in the best-case ceasefire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue to occur, mainly due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation, shelter conditions, and malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare services in Gaza. While the total number of estimated excess deaths from maternal and neonatal causes are relatively small (100–330 excess deaths), every loss of a mother has severe consequences for family health and wellbeing. NCDs are projected to cause more deaths (1,680 (ceasefire) –2,680 (escalation) excess deaths) due to a heavily disrupted specialised health services and impeded access to treatment and medications.
CONCLUSION
These projections underscore the critical and urgent need for an immediate ceasefire to mitigate the alarming excess mortality in Gaza. The severity of the ceasefire scenario cannot be understated, with over 6–11 thousand excess deaths projected. Decision-makers must act swiftly to prevent further loss of life and address the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Since 7 October 2023, large-scale military operations in the Gaza Strip have resulted in an escalating public health crisis. Residents of Gaza are mostly displaced from their homes and living in overcrowded conditions with insufficient access to water, sanitation, and food, and health services have been considerably disrupted. To inform humanitarian and decision-making efforts, we aimed to estimate the project excess mortality from traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, maternal and newborn complications, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) under different future scenarios.
METHODS
We used five different models to project excess deaths from February to August 2024, considering three scenarios: (1) an immediate and permanent ceasefire; (2) the status quo, reflecting conditions from mid-October 2023 to mid-January 2024; and (3) a further escalation of the conflict. Using publicly available data and expert consultations, our analysis projected excess deaths resulting under each scenario. A model was developed to determine increased malnutrition (as an underlying cause).
RESULTS
Without epidemics, the ceasefire scenario would result in 6550 excess deaths, rising to 58,260 under the status quo, and 74,290 under escalation. With epidemics, these projections rise to 11,580, 66,720, and 85,750, respectively. Under the ceasefire scenario, infectious diseases would be the main cause of excess deaths (1,520 excess deaths without epidemics and 6,550 with epidemics). Traumatic injuries followed by infectious diseases would be the main causes of excess deaths in both the status quo (53,450 due to traumatic injuries; 2,120 due to infectious diseases without epidemics and 10,590 including epidemics) and escalation scenarios (68,650 due to traumatic injuries; 2,720 due to infectious diseases without epidemics and 14,180 with epidemics). Our projections indicate that, even in the best-case ceasefire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue to occur, mainly due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation, shelter conditions, and malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare services in Gaza. While the total number of estimated excess deaths from maternal and neonatal causes are relatively small (100–330 excess deaths), every loss of a mother has severe consequences for family health and wellbeing. NCDs are projected to cause more deaths (1,680 (ceasefire) –2,680 (escalation) excess deaths) due to a heavily disrupted specialised health services and impeded access to treatment and medications.
CONCLUSION
These projections underscore the critical and urgent need for an immediate ceasefire to mitigate the alarming excess mortality in Gaza. The severity of the ceasefire scenario cannot be understated, with over 6–11 thousand excess deaths projected. Decision-makers must act swiftly to prevent further loss of life and address the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Conference Material > Slide Presentation
Jamaluddine Z, Chen Z, Abukmail H, Aly S, Elnakib S, et al.
MSF Scientific Day International 2024. 16 May 2024; DOI:10.57740/Vhb9PBkEqz
Conference Material > Abstract
Truelove SA, Hedge S, Kostandova N, Niehaus L, Rao B, et al.
MSF Scientific Days International 2021: Research. 18 May 2021
INTRODUCTION
Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have arisen regarding the potential impact of outbreaks affecting Rohingya refugees living in the Kutupalong-Balukhali refugee camps in Bangladesh. Early modeling work projected substantial outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 virus were likely within the camps. However only 435 laboratory-confirmed cases and 10 deaths were reported from 14 May 2020 through 19 March 2021. While these official numbers imply spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been controlled, other data are contradictory, highlighting a population unwilling to seek care or be tested. Surveys from slums in India and Bangladesh suggest seroprevalence rates of 45% and 75%. Here we use multiple data sources to evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks may in fact have been larger than previously thought among Rohingya refugees in the Kutupalong-Balukhali camps.
METHODS
We used a mixed-methods approach to analyze SARSCoV-2 transmission in the Kutupalong-Balukhali refugee camps using multiple datasets. We developed a probabilistic inference framework to assess support for three hypotheses of how variability in care seeking and testing might alter the interpretation of official case and testing data. We estimated weekly numbers of infections among the Rohingya refugees using official reported case and testing data, data on acute respiratory infections (ARI) from WHO’s Emergency Warning and Response System, probability of SARS-CoV-2 PCR test among ARI cases at MSF health centres, and data from a serological survey conducted in Dhaka. Separately, we assessed compatibility with suspected COVID-19 among deaths identified through an International Organization for Migration (IOM) mortality survey among the Rohingya during April–July 2020. We compare these deaths to the inference model results to identify consistency between sources and methods.
ETHICS
This study fulfilled the exemption criteria set by the MSF Ethics Review Board (ERB) for a posteriori analyses of routinely collected clinical data and thus did not require MSF ERB review. It was conducted with permission from Dr Kiran Jobanputra, Operational Centre Amsterdam, MSF.
RESULTS
Under our probability framework, each hypothesis suggests a substantial outbreak occurred, though size and timing vary substantially. Under hypotheses accounting for declines in willingness to seek care, the data suggest a large outbreak occurred in spring 2020, with up to 400,000 infections, or 47% of the population, and 390 deaths occurring during April-December 2020. These findings were consistent in both timing and magnitude of the outbreak estimated separately from deaths identified by the IOM survey, including 47 unreported deaths consistent with suspected COVID-19 and up to 370 suspected COVID-19 deaths after adjusting for sampling. These deaths coincided temporally with spikes in reported cases and test-positivity rates during June 2020 and with increased contact during Ramadan.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the low numbers of reported cases and deaths, we suggest an early large-scale outbreak is consistent with the reported data, with the outbreak remaining unobserved because of reduced care-seeking behavior and low infection severity among this population. Current data do not permit precise estimation of incidence, but results do suggest substantial unrecognized transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the camps. However, confirmation will await more conclusive evidence from serological testing.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
None declared.
Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have arisen regarding the potential impact of outbreaks affecting Rohingya refugees living in the Kutupalong-Balukhali refugee camps in Bangladesh. Early modeling work projected substantial outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 virus were likely within the camps. However only 435 laboratory-confirmed cases and 10 deaths were reported from 14 May 2020 through 19 March 2021. While these official numbers imply spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been controlled, other data are contradictory, highlighting a population unwilling to seek care or be tested. Surveys from slums in India and Bangladesh suggest seroprevalence rates of 45% and 75%. Here we use multiple data sources to evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks may in fact have been larger than previously thought among Rohingya refugees in the Kutupalong-Balukhali camps.
METHODS
We used a mixed-methods approach to analyze SARSCoV-2 transmission in the Kutupalong-Balukhali refugee camps using multiple datasets. We developed a probabilistic inference framework to assess support for three hypotheses of how variability in care seeking and testing might alter the interpretation of official case and testing data. We estimated weekly numbers of infections among the Rohingya refugees using official reported case and testing data, data on acute respiratory infections (ARI) from WHO’s Emergency Warning and Response System, probability of SARS-CoV-2 PCR test among ARI cases at MSF health centres, and data from a serological survey conducted in Dhaka. Separately, we assessed compatibility with suspected COVID-19 among deaths identified through an International Organization for Migration (IOM) mortality survey among the Rohingya during April–July 2020. We compare these deaths to the inference model results to identify consistency between sources and methods.
ETHICS
This study fulfilled the exemption criteria set by the MSF Ethics Review Board (ERB) for a posteriori analyses of routinely collected clinical data and thus did not require MSF ERB review. It was conducted with permission from Dr Kiran Jobanputra, Operational Centre Amsterdam, MSF.
RESULTS
Under our probability framework, each hypothesis suggests a substantial outbreak occurred, though size and timing vary substantially. Under hypotheses accounting for declines in willingness to seek care, the data suggest a large outbreak occurred in spring 2020, with up to 400,000 infections, or 47% of the population, and 390 deaths occurring during April-December 2020. These findings were consistent in both timing and magnitude of the outbreak estimated separately from deaths identified by the IOM survey, including 47 unreported deaths consistent with suspected COVID-19 and up to 370 suspected COVID-19 deaths after adjusting for sampling. These deaths coincided temporally with spikes in reported cases and test-positivity rates during June 2020 and with increased contact during Ramadan.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the low numbers of reported cases and deaths, we suggest an early large-scale outbreak is consistent with the reported data, with the outbreak remaining unobserved because of reduced care-seeking behavior and low infection severity among this population. Current data do not permit precise estimation of incidence, but results do suggest substantial unrecognized transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the camps. However, confirmation will await more conclusive evidence from serological testing.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
None declared.
Conference Material > Video
Healy S, Spiegel PB, Dahab M
MSF Scientific Days International 2020: Research. 13 May 2020
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00133-1
Gaffey MF, Waldman RJ, Blanchet K, Amsalu R, Capobianco E, et al.
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00133-1
Conference Material > Slide Presentation
Truelove SA, Hedge S, Kostandova N, Niehaus L, Rao B, et al.
MSF Scientific Days International 2021: Research. 18 May 2021
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6
Wise PH, Shiel A, Southard N, Bendavid E, Welsh J, et al.
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6
The nature of armed conflict throughout the world is intensely dynamic. Consequently, the protection of non-combatants and the provision of humanitarian services must continually adapt to this changing conflict environment. Complex political affiliations, the systematic use of explosive weapons and sexual violence, and the use of new communication technology, including social media, have created new challenges for humanitarian actors in negotiating access to affected populations and security for their own personnel. The nature of combatants has also evolved as armed, non-state actors might have varying motivations, use different forms of violence, and engage in a variety of criminal activities to generate requisite funds. New health threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and new capabilities, such as modern trauma care, have also created new challenges and opportunities for humanitarian health provision. In response, humanitarian policies and practices must develop negotiation and safety capabilities, informed by political and security realities on the ground, and guidance from affected communities. More fundamentally, humanitarian policies will need to confront a changing geopolitical environment, in which traditional humanitarian norms and protections might encounter wavering support in the years to come.