Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
N Engl J Med. 2016 June 23; Volume 374 (Issue 25); DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1513137
Ménard D, Khim N, Beghain J, Adegnika AA, Alam MS, et al.
N Engl J Med. 2016 June 23; Volume 374 (Issue 25); DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1513137
Recent gains in reducing the global burden of malaria are threatened by the emergence of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinins. The discovery that mutations in portions of a P. falciparum gene encoding kelch (K13)-propeller domains are the major determinant of resistance has provided opportunities for monitoring such resistance on a global scale.
Journal Article > Meta-AnalysisFull Text
Malar J. 2019 July 5; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network Methodology Study Group, Dahal P, Simpson JA, Abdulla S, Achan J, et al.
Malar J. 2019 July 5; Volume 18 (Issue 1); 225.; DOI:10.1186/s12936-019-2837-4.
BACKGROUND
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Therapeutic efficacy studies in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria are confounded by new infections, which constitute competing risk events since they can potentially preclude/pre-empt the detection of subsequent recrudescence of persistent, sub-microscopic primary infections.
METHODS
Antimalarial studies typically report the risk of recrudescence derived using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method, which considers new infections acquired during the follow-up period as censored. Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) provides an alternative approach for handling new infections, which accounts for them as a competing risk event. The complement of the estimate derived using the K-M method (1 minus K-M), and the CIF were used to derive the risk of recrudescence at the end of the follow-up period using data from studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository. Absolute differences in the failure estimates derived using these two methods were quantified. In comparative studies, the equality of two K-M curves was assessed using the log-rank test, and the equality of CIFs using Gray's k-sample test (both at 5% level of significance). Two different regression modelling strategies for recrudescence were considered: cause-specific Cox model and Fine and Gray's sub-distributional hazard model.
RESULTS
Data were available from 92 studies (233 treatment arms, 31,379 patients) conducted between 1996 and 2014. At the end of follow-up, the median absolute overestimation in the estimated risk of cumulative recrudescence by using 1 minus K-M approach was 0.04% (interquartile range (IQR): 0.00-0.27%, Range: 0.00-3.60%). The overestimation was correlated positively with the proportion of patients with recrudescence [Pearson's correlation coefficient (ρ): 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.30-0.46] or new infection [ρ: 0.43; 95% CI 0.35-0.54]. In three study arms, the point estimates of failure were greater than 10% (the WHO threshold for withdrawing antimalarials) when the K-M method was used, but remained below 10% when using the CIF approach, but the 95% confidence interval included this threshold.
CONCLUSIONS
The 1 minus K-M method resulted in a marginal overestimation of recrudescence that became increasingly pronounced as antimalarial efficacy declined, particularly when the observed proportion of new infection was high. The CIF approach provides an alternative approach for derivation of failure estimates in antimalarial trials, particularly in high transmission settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Viruses. 2023 August 8; Volume 15 (Issue 8); 1707.; DOI: 10.3390/v15081707
Broban A, Olive MM, Tantely ML, Dorsemans AC, Rakotomanana F, et al.
Viruses. 2023 August 8; Volume 15 (Issue 8); 1707.; DOI: 10.3390/v15081707
Arboviruses have been shown to circulate in Madagascar, including West Nile, dengue, and chikungunya viruses, though the extent of their circulation remains poorly documented. We estimated the seroprevalence of these three arboviruses in Madagascar and determined risk factors associated with seropositivity. Serum samples obtained from 1680 individuals surrounding the Sentinel Health Centers network in all regions of the country were analyzed using ELISA and hemagglutination inhibition assays for dengue, chikungunya, and West Nile viruses IgG antibodies, and multivariate logistic regression models were run. Overall, 6.5% [IC 95% 3.2–9.9] were seropositive for dengue virus, predominantly of Dengue serotype 1, 13.7% [IC 95% 6.5–20.9] for chikungunya virus, and 12.7% [IC 95% 9.0–16.5] for West Nile virus. There was no association with age, showing that dengue and chikungunya viruses were likely recently introduced. Eastern and Northern parts were more affected by dengue and chikungunya viruses, while West Nile virus seemed to circulate in all parts of the country. Dengue and chikungunya seropositivity were notably associated with high levels of vegetation, as well as frequent work in the forest, and West Nile seropositivity with the presence of cultivated areas, as well as standard of living. This analysis gives a new insight into arboviruses circulation and transmission patterns in Madagascar.