Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 2017 June 5; Volume 12 (Issue 6); e0178996.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0178996
Abongomera C, Ritmeijer KKD, Vogt F, Buyze J, Mekonnen Z, et al.
PLOS One. 2017 June 5; Volume 12 (Issue 6); e0178996.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0178996
BACKGROUND
In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1); HIV seropositive (score +1); HIV seronegative (score -1); hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1); bleeding (score +1); jaundice (score +1); edema (score +1); ascites (score +2) and tuberculosis (score +1). The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%), a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8%) and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4–85.7%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79–0.87) in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.83) in external validation.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.
In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1); HIV seropositive (score +1); HIV seronegative (score -1); hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1); bleeding (score +1); jaundice (score +1); edema (score +1); ascites (score +2) and tuberculosis (score +1). The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%), a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8%) and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4–85.7%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79–0.87) in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.83) in external validation.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Clin Infect Dis. 2017 October 30; Volume 65 (Issue 10); 1703-1710.; DOI:10.1093/cid/cix607
Abongomera C, Diro EGJ, Vogt F, Tsoumanis A, Mekonnen Z, et al.
Clin Infect Dis. 2017 October 30; Volume 65 (Issue 10); 1703-1710.; DOI:10.1093/cid/cix607
BACKGROUND
East Africa, where Leishmania donovani is prevalent, faces the highest burden world-wide of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection. However, data on the risk and predictors of VL relapse are scarce. Such information is vital to target medical follow-up and interventions to those at highest risk.
METHODS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a Médecins Sans Frontières-supported health center in northwest Ethiopia. We included adult VL-HIV coinfected patients treated for VL and discharged cured between February 2008 and February 2013. The risk of relapse was calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods, and predictors were determined using Cox regression models.
RESULTS
Of the 146 patients included, 140 (96%) were male and the median age was 31 years. At the index VL diagnosis, 110 (75%) had primary VL, 57 (40%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and the median CD4 count was 149 cells/µL. The median follow-up time after cure was 11 months, during which 44 (30%) patients relapsed. The risk of relapse was 15% at 6 months, 26% at 12 months, and 35% at 24 months. Predictors of relapse were: not being on ART at VL diagnosis, ART not initiated during VL treatment, and high tissue parasite load (parasite grade 6+) at VL diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS
The risk of VL relapse in coinfected patients was high, particularly in those not on ART or presenting with a high tissue parasite load. These patients should be preferentially targeted for secondary prophylaxis and/or regular medical follow-up. Timely ART initiation in all coinfected patients is crucial.
East Africa, where Leishmania donovani is prevalent, faces the highest burden world-wide of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection. However, data on the risk and predictors of VL relapse are scarce. Such information is vital to target medical follow-up and interventions to those at highest risk.
METHODS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a Médecins Sans Frontières-supported health center in northwest Ethiopia. We included adult VL-HIV coinfected patients treated for VL and discharged cured between February 2008 and February 2013. The risk of relapse was calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods, and predictors were determined using Cox regression models.
RESULTS
Of the 146 patients included, 140 (96%) were male and the median age was 31 years. At the index VL diagnosis, 110 (75%) had primary VL, 57 (40%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and the median CD4 count was 149 cells/µL. The median follow-up time after cure was 11 months, during which 44 (30%) patients relapsed. The risk of relapse was 15% at 6 months, 26% at 12 months, and 35% at 24 months. Predictors of relapse were: not being on ART at VL diagnosis, ART not initiated during VL treatment, and high tissue parasite load (parasite grade 6+) at VL diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS
The risk of VL relapse in coinfected patients was high, particularly in those not on ART or presenting with a high tissue parasite load. These patients should be preferentially targeted for secondary prophylaxis and/or regular medical follow-up. Timely ART initiation in all coinfected patients is crucial.