Conference Material > Abstract
Chandna A, PRIORITISE Study Group, Mahajan R, Gautam P, Mwandigha L, et al.
MSF Scientific Days International 2022. 2022 May 9; DOI:10.57740/hxy9-yk07
INTRODUCTION
In locations where few people have received Covid-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Triage tools, which could include biomarkers, to identify patients with moderate Covid-19 infection suitable for community-based management would be useful in the event of surges. In consultation with FIND (Geneva, Switzerland) we shortlisted seven biomarkers for evaluation, all measurable using point-of-care tests, and either currently available or in late-stage development.
METHODS
We prospectively recruited unvaccinated adults with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms, in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. Moderate disease was defined as oxygen saturation (SpO2) ≥ 94% and respiratory rate < 30 breaths per minute (bpm), in the context of systemic symptoms (breathlessness or fever and chest pain, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, or severe myalgia). All patients had clinical observations and blood collected at presentation, and were followed up for 14 days for the primary outcome, defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three easily ascertained clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and one of the seven biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, interleukin-6 (IL-6), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), procalcitonin (PCT), soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1), or soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR)), to ensure the models would be implementable in high patient-throughput, low-resource settings. We evaluated the models’ discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in a held-out external temporal validation cohort.
ETHICS
Ethical approval was given by the ethics committees of AIIMS and CMC, India, the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, UK; and by the MSF Ethics Review Board.
ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04441372.
RESULTS
426 participants were recruited, of which 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development, and 166 the validation, cohorts. The three models containing NLR, suPAR, or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72 to 0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01 to 1.05) in the held-out validation cohort. Furthermore, they provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone (c-statistic = 0.66; calibration slope = 0.68). The inclusion of either NLR or suPAR improved predictive performance such that the ratio of correctly to incorrectly discharged patients increased from 10:1 to 23:1 or 25:1 respectively. Including IL-6 resulted in a similar proportion (~21%) of correctly discharged patients as the clinical model, but without missing any patients requiring supplemental oxygen.
CONCLUSION
We present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate Covid-19 suitable for community-based management. These models are readily implementable and, if validated, could be of particular relevance for resource-limited settings.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
None declared.
In locations where few people have received Covid-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Triage tools, which could include biomarkers, to identify patients with moderate Covid-19 infection suitable for community-based management would be useful in the event of surges. In consultation with FIND (Geneva, Switzerland) we shortlisted seven biomarkers for evaluation, all measurable using point-of-care tests, and either currently available or in late-stage development.
METHODS
We prospectively recruited unvaccinated adults with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms, in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. Moderate disease was defined as oxygen saturation (SpO2) ≥ 94% and respiratory rate < 30 breaths per minute (bpm), in the context of systemic symptoms (breathlessness or fever and chest pain, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, or severe myalgia). All patients had clinical observations and blood collected at presentation, and were followed up for 14 days for the primary outcome, defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three easily ascertained clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and one of the seven biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, interleukin-6 (IL-6), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), procalcitonin (PCT), soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1), or soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR)), to ensure the models would be implementable in high patient-throughput, low-resource settings. We evaluated the models’ discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in a held-out external temporal validation cohort.
ETHICS
Ethical approval was given by the ethics committees of AIIMS and CMC, India, the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, UK; and by the MSF Ethics Review Board.
ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04441372.
RESULTS
426 participants were recruited, of which 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development, and 166 the validation, cohorts. The three models containing NLR, suPAR, or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72 to 0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01 to 1.05) in the held-out validation cohort. Furthermore, they provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone (c-statistic = 0.66; calibration slope = 0.68). The inclusion of either NLR or suPAR improved predictive performance such that the ratio of correctly to incorrectly discharged patients increased from 10:1 to 23:1 or 25:1 respectively. Including IL-6 resulted in a similar proportion (~21%) of correctly discharged patients as the clinical model, but without missing any patients requiring supplemental oxygen.
CONCLUSION
We present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate Covid-19 suitable for community-based management. These models are readily implementable and, if validated, could be of particular relevance for resource-limited settings.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
None declared.
Conference Material > Slide Presentation
Mahajan R, Owen SI, Kumar S, Kazmi S, Das P, et al.
MSF Scientific Days International 2021: Research. 2021 May 19
Conference Material > Abstract
Mahajan R, Owen SI, Kumar S, Kazmi S, Das P, et al.
MSF Scientific Days International 2021: Research. 2021 May 19
INTRODUCTION
People co-infected with visceral leishmaniasis and HIV (VL-HIV) typically present with advanced HIV disease and in poor clinical condition. The reasons for this are complex, but one major challenge relates to difficulties in ensuring early diagnosis of VL, a stage IV opportunistic infection, in the context of HIV. In VL-endemic areas, it is recognised that between 2 and 20% of the general population may harbour asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), the vast majority of whom will not progress to symptomatic disease. However, similar data are absent for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in South Asia. Being able to diagnose ALI may provide a screen-and-treat opportunity to prevent progression to the fatal symptomatic form. We investigated the prevalence and determinants of ALI in PLHIV living in VL-endemic areas, and the risk of progression to symptomatic VL.
METHODS
We conducted a cross-sectional survey, enrolling PLHIV aged ≥18 with no diagnosis of or history of leishmaniasis symptoms, at three antiretroviral therapy centres within VL-endemic regions of Bihar, India. ALI was defined as a positive rK39 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), rK39 rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and/or quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) result on blood. In addition, we tested for the Leishmania antigen in urine using ELISA as a novel non-invasive alternative. Participants were followed up at three-monthly intervals over 18 months to assess status and progression to symptomatic infection.
ETHICS
This study was approved by the ethics boards of the Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna, India, and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK, and the MSF Ethics Review Board. Clinical Trial Registry-India number, CTRI/2017/03/008120.
RESULTS
1,296 PLHIV were included in the analysis. The baseline prevalence of ALI was 7.4% (n=96). All were found positive using rK39 ELISA, while 0.5% (n=6) and 0.4% (n=5) were positive using qPCR and rK39 RDT, respectively. 2.2% (n=28) patients were positive using urinary Leishmania antigen ELISA testing. Independent risk factors (p<0.05) for ALI were CD4 count <100 cells/mm3 (adjusted odds ratio, aOR, 3.1; 95%CI 1.2-7.6), and CD4 count between 100-199 cells/mm3 (aOR=2.1; 95%CI 1.1-4.0), as compared to CD4 ≥300 cells/mm3 and living in a household size ≥5 (aOR=1.8; 95%CI 1.1-3.2). Concordance between diagnostic tests was poor. A total of 109 asymptomatic patients were followed up prospectively, including 13 additional patients who were identified during pilot testing. Overall, 3.7% (n=4) patients converted from asymptomatic to symptomatic infection over the study period. Conversion rates of participants identified as positive using rK39 ELISA, rK39 RDT, qPCR, and urinary Leishmania antigen ELISA, were 3.7% (4/109), 40% (2/5), 57% (4/7), and 14% (4/29), respectively. Risk of all-cause mortality in those with ALI over 18 months’ follow-up was 6.4% (n=7), compared with 2.5% (n=30) in those without (risk ratio, 2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.7, p=0.018).
CONCLUSION
PLHIV living in highly VL-endemic areas have a relatively high prevalence of ALI. Although progression rates to symptomatic infection appear low, all-cause mortality rates are higher and may reflect the impact of sub-clinical infection on HIV outcomes. The results may justify further studies investigating early treatment of ALI in PLHIV.
People co-infected with visceral leishmaniasis and HIV (VL-HIV) typically present with advanced HIV disease and in poor clinical condition. The reasons for this are complex, but one major challenge relates to difficulties in ensuring early diagnosis of VL, a stage IV opportunistic infection, in the context of HIV. In VL-endemic areas, it is recognised that between 2 and 20% of the general population may harbour asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), the vast majority of whom will not progress to symptomatic disease. However, similar data are absent for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in South Asia. Being able to diagnose ALI may provide a screen-and-treat opportunity to prevent progression to the fatal symptomatic form. We investigated the prevalence and determinants of ALI in PLHIV living in VL-endemic areas, and the risk of progression to symptomatic VL.
METHODS
We conducted a cross-sectional survey, enrolling PLHIV aged ≥18 with no diagnosis of or history of leishmaniasis symptoms, at three antiretroviral therapy centres within VL-endemic regions of Bihar, India. ALI was defined as a positive rK39 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), rK39 rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and/or quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) result on blood. In addition, we tested for the Leishmania antigen in urine using ELISA as a novel non-invasive alternative. Participants were followed up at three-monthly intervals over 18 months to assess status and progression to symptomatic infection.
ETHICS
This study was approved by the ethics boards of the Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna, India, and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, UK, and the MSF Ethics Review Board. Clinical Trial Registry-India number, CTRI/2017/03/008120.
RESULTS
1,296 PLHIV were included in the analysis. The baseline prevalence of ALI was 7.4% (n=96). All were found positive using rK39 ELISA, while 0.5% (n=6) and 0.4% (n=5) were positive using qPCR and rK39 RDT, respectively. 2.2% (n=28) patients were positive using urinary Leishmania antigen ELISA testing. Independent risk factors (p<0.05) for ALI were CD4 count <100 cells/mm3 (adjusted odds ratio, aOR, 3.1; 95%CI 1.2-7.6), and CD4 count between 100-199 cells/mm3 (aOR=2.1; 95%CI 1.1-4.0), as compared to CD4 ≥300 cells/mm3 and living in a household size ≥5 (aOR=1.8; 95%CI 1.1-3.2). Concordance between diagnostic tests was poor. A total of 109 asymptomatic patients were followed up prospectively, including 13 additional patients who were identified during pilot testing. Overall, 3.7% (n=4) patients converted from asymptomatic to symptomatic infection over the study period. Conversion rates of participants identified as positive using rK39 ELISA, rK39 RDT, qPCR, and urinary Leishmania antigen ELISA, were 3.7% (4/109), 40% (2/5), 57% (4/7), and 14% (4/29), respectively. Risk of all-cause mortality in those with ALI over 18 months’ follow-up was 6.4% (n=7), compared with 2.5% (n=30) in those without (risk ratio, 2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.7, p=0.018).
CONCLUSION
PLHIV living in highly VL-endemic areas have a relatively high prevalence of ALI. Although progression rates to symptomatic infection appear low, all-cause mortality rates are higher and may reflect the impact of sub-clinical infection on HIV outcomes. The results may justify further studies investigating early treatment of ALI in PLHIV.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
JAC Antimicrob Resist. 2024 January 2; Volume 6 (Issue 1); dlad151.; DOI:10.1093/jacamr/dlad151
Kumar V, Murali S, Goldberg J, Alonso B, Moretó-Planas L, et al.
JAC Antimicrob Resist. 2024 January 2; Volume 6 (Issue 1); dlad151.; DOI:10.1093/jacamr/dlad151
OBJECTIVES
To describe the prevalence of common bacterial pathogens and antibiotic susceptibility patterns amongst advanced HIV disease (AHD) patients admitted between May 2019 and March 2021 to a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-supported AHD inpatient unit in Bihar, India.
METHODS
A retrospective analysis of routinely collected demographic, clinical and microbiological data. Antibacterial susceptibility testing was done by an accredited referral laboratory using the modified Kirby–Bauer disc diffusion method.
RESULTS
A total of 238 isolates from 577 patients were identified through culture testing. Patient median (IQR) age was 38 (31–45) years, and 75% were male. Predominant sample types included blood (600; 38%), urine (266; 17%) and sputum (178; 11%). Of the isolated bacteria, Escherichia coli (80; 13.9%) was the most prevalent, followed by Klebsiella pneumonia (54; 9.4%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (22; 3.8%), Klebsiella oxytoca (10; 1.7%), Proteus mirabilis (9; 1.6%), and Acinetobacter baumannii (7; 1.2%). The resistance pattern showed that most bacterial isolates were highly resistant to commonly prescribed antibiotics such as third-generation cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones and co-trimoxazole. Most pathogens were moderately resistant to antibiotics from the WHO Watch group, such as meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam. In contrast, isolates were more susceptible to aminoglycosides, such as amikacin, gentamicin and nitrofurantoin.
CONCLUSIONS
In Bihar, inpatients with AHD displayed a concerning array of antibiotic-resistant infections. This study provides a starting point from which further work on antimicrobial resistance in this vulnerable cohort of patients can be conducted.
To describe the prevalence of common bacterial pathogens and antibiotic susceptibility patterns amongst advanced HIV disease (AHD) patients admitted between May 2019 and March 2021 to a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-supported AHD inpatient unit in Bihar, India.
METHODS
A retrospective analysis of routinely collected demographic, clinical and microbiological data. Antibacterial susceptibility testing was done by an accredited referral laboratory using the modified Kirby–Bauer disc diffusion method.
RESULTS
A total of 238 isolates from 577 patients were identified through culture testing. Patient median (IQR) age was 38 (31–45) years, and 75% were male. Predominant sample types included blood (600; 38%), urine (266; 17%) and sputum (178; 11%). Of the isolated bacteria, Escherichia coli (80; 13.9%) was the most prevalent, followed by Klebsiella pneumonia (54; 9.4%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (22; 3.8%), Klebsiella oxytoca (10; 1.7%), Proteus mirabilis (9; 1.6%), and Acinetobacter baumannii (7; 1.2%). The resistance pattern showed that most bacterial isolates were highly resistant to commonly prescribed antibiotics such as third-generation cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones and co-trimoxazole. Most pathogens were moderately resistant to antibiotics from the WHO Watch group, such as meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam. In contrast, isolates were more susceptible to aminoglycosides, such as amikacin, gentamicin and nitrofurantoin.
CONCLUSIONS
In Bihar, inpatients with AHD displayed a concerning array of antibiotic-resistant infections. This study provides a starting point from which further work on antimicrobial resistance in this vulnerable cohort of patients can be conducted.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
BMC Pediatr. 2009 August 20; Volume 9; 54.; DOI:10.1186/1471-2431-9-54
Raguenaud ME, Isaakidis P, Zachariah R, Te V, Soeung S, et al.
BMC Pediatr. 2009 August 20; Volume 9; 54.; DOI:10.1186/1471-2431-9-54
BACKGROUND
Although HIV program evaluations focusing on mortality on ART provide important evidence on treatment effectiveness, they do not asses overall HIV program performance because they exclude patients who are eligible but not started on ART for whatever reason. The objective of this study was to measure mortality that occurs both pre-ART and during ART among HIV-positive children enrolled in two HIV-programs in Cambodia.
METHODS
Retrospective cohort study on 1168 HIV-positive children <15 years old registered in two HIV-programs over a four-year period. Mortality rates were calculated for both children on treatment and children not started on ART.
RESULTS
Over half (53%) of children were 5 years or above and only 69(6%) were <18 months. Overall, 9% (105/1168) of children died since the set-up of the programs. By the end of the observation period, 66(14.5%) patients not on ART had died compared to 39(5.5%) of those under treatment, and 100(22%) who did not start ART were lost-to-follow-up compared to 13(2%) on ART. 66/105 (62.8%) of all in-program deaths occurred before starting ART, of which 56% (37/66) and 79% (52/66) occurred within 3 and 6 months of enrollment respectively. Mortality rate ratio between children not on ART and children on ART was 4.1 (95%CI: 2.7-6.2) (P < 0.001). The most common contributing cause of death in first 3 months of treatment and in first 3 months of program enrollment was tuberculosis. 41/52 (79%) children who died within 6 months of enrollment had met the ART eligibility criteria before death.
CONCLUSION
HIV-positive children experienced a high mortality and loss-to-follow-up rates before starting ART. These program outcomes may be improved by a more timely ART initiation. Measuring overall in-program mortality as opposed to only mortality on ART is recommended in order to more accurately evaluate pediatric HIV-programs performance.
Although HIV program evaluations focusing on mortality on ART provide important evidence on treatment effectiveness, they do not asses overall HIV program performance because they exclude patients who are eligible but not started on ART for whatever reason. The objective of this study was to measure mortality that occurs both pre-ART and during ART among HIV-positive children enrolled in two HIV-programs in Cambodia.
METHODS
Retrospective cohort study on 1168 HIV-positive children <15 years old registered in two HIV-programs over a four-year period. Mortality rates were calculated for both children on treatment and children not started on ART.
RESULTS
Over half (53%) of children were 5 years or above and only 69(6%) were <18 months. Overall, 9% (105/1168) of children died since the set-up of the programs. By the end of the observation period, 66(14.5%) patients not on ART had died compared to 39(5.5%) of those under treatment, and 100(22%) who did not start ART were lost-to-follow-up compared to 13(2%) on ART. 66/105 (62.8%) of all in-program deaths occurred before starting ART, of which 56% (37/66) and 79% (52/66) occurred within 3 and 6 months of enrollment respectively. Mortality rate ratio between children not on ART and children on ART was 4.1 (95%CI: 2.7-6.2) (P < 0.001). The most common contributing cause of death in first 3 months of treatment and in first 3 months of program enrollment was tuberculosis. 41/52 (79%) children who died within 6 months of enrollment had met the ART eligibility criteria before death.
CONCLUSION
HIV-positive children experienced a high mortality and loss-to-follow-up rates before starting ART. These program outcomes may be improved by a more timely ART initiation. Measuring overall in-program mortality as opposed to only mortality on ART is recommended in order to more accurately evaluate pediatric HIV-programs performance.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 August 30; Volume 16 (Issue 8); e0010718.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010718
Mahajan R, Owen SI, Kumar S, Pandey K, Kazmi S, et al.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 August 30; Volume 16 (Issue 8); e0010718.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010718
People living with HIV (PLHIV) have an increased risk of developing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and poor outcomes compared to HIV negative individuals. Here, we aim to establish the prevalence and determinants of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI) in a cohort of PLHIV in Bihar, India. We hoped to evaluate optimal diagnostic algorithms to detect ALI in PLHIV. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of PLHIV ≥18 years of age with no history or current diagnosis of VL or post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) at anti-retroviral therapy centres within VL endemic districts of Bihar. ALI was defined as a positive rK39 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), rK39 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and/or quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Additionally, the urinary Leishmania antigen ELISA was evaluated. Determinants for ALI were established using logistic regression and agreement between diagnostic tests calculated using Cohen’s Kappa. A total of 1,296 PLHIV enrolled in HIV care, 694 (53.6%) of whom were female and a median age of 39 years (interquartile range 33–46), were included in the analysis. Baseline prevalence of ALI was 7.4% (n = 96). All 96 individuals were positive by rK39 ELISA, while 0.5% (n = 6) and 0.4% (n = 5) were positive by qPCR and rK39 RDT, respectively. Negligible or weak agreement was seen between assays. Independent risk factors for ALI were CD4 counts <100 (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2–7.6) and CD4 counts 100–199 (OR = 2.1;95% CI:1.1–4.0) compared to CD4 counts ≥300, and a household size ≥5 (OR = 1.9;95% CI:1.1–3.1). A total of 2.2% (n = 28) participants were positive by Leishmania antigen ELISA, detecting 20 additional participants to the asymptomatic cohort. Prevalence of ALI in PLHIV in VL endemic villages in Bihar was relatively high. Using the Leishmania antigen ELISA, prevalence increased to 9.0%. Patients with low CD4 counts and larger household size were found to have significantly higher risk of ALI.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 March 21; Volume ciac224; DOI:10.1093/cid/ciac224
Chandna A, Mahajan R, Gautam P, Mwandigha L, Gunasekaran K, et al.
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 March 21; Volume ciac224; DOI:10.1093/cid/ciac224
BACKGROUND
In locations where few people have received COVID-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed.
METHODS
We prospectively recruited adults presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex and SpO2) and one of seven shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using commercially-available rapid tests (CRP, D-dimer, IL-6, NLR, PCT, sTREM-1 or suPAR), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the models in a held-out temporal external validation cohort.
RESULTS
426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development cohort and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The three models containing NLR, suPAR or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72 to 0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01 to 1.05) in the validation cohort, and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone.
CONCLUSIONS
We present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources.
In locations where few people have received COVID-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed.
METHODS
We prospectively recruited adults presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex and SpO2) and one of seven shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using commercially-available rapid tests (CRP, D-dimer, IL-6, NLR, PCT, sTREM-1 or suPAR), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the models in a held-out temporal external validation cohort.
RESULTS
426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development cohort and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The three models containing NLR, suPAR or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72 to 0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01 to 1.05) in the validation cohort, and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone.
CONCLUSIONS
We present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 October 15; Volume 75 (Issue 8); 1423-1432.; DOI:10.1093/cid/ciac127
Burza S, Mahajan R, Kazmi S, Alexander N, Kumar D, et al.
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 October 15; Volume 75 (Issue 8); 1423-1432.; DOI:10.1093/cid/ciac127
BACKGROUND
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in patients living with Human-Immunodeficiency-Virus (HIV) present an increasingly important patient cohort in areas where both infections are endemic. Evidence for treatment is sparce, with no high-quality studies from the Indian sub-continent.
METHODS
This is a randomised open label, parallel arm phase-3 trial conducted within a single hospital in Patna, India. 150 patients aged =18 years with serologically confirmed HIV and parasitologically confirmed VL were randomly allocated to one of two treatment arms, either a total 40mg/kg intravenous liposomal amphotericin B(AmBisome) administered in 8 equal doses over 24-days, or a total 30mg/kg intravenous liposomal amphotericin B(AmBisome) administered in 6 equal doses given concomitantly with a total 1.4g oral miltefosine administered through two daily doses of 50mg over 14-days. The primary outcome was ITT relapse-free-survival at day-210, defined as absence of signs and symptoms of VL, or if symptomatic negative parasitological investigations.
FINDINGS
Among 243 patients assessed for eligibility, 150 were recruited between 2nd January 2017 and 5th April 2018, with no loss-to-follow-up. Relapse free survival at day-210 was 85%, (64/75; 95%CI 77-100) in the monotherapy arm, and 96%, (72/75;95%CI 90-100) in the combination arm. 19%(28/150) were infected with concurrent tuberculosis, divided equally between arms. Excluding those with concurrent tuberculosis, relapse free survival at day-210 was 90%, (55/61;95%CI 82-100) in the monotherapy and 97%, (59/61;95%CI 91-100) in the combination therapy arm. Serious adverse events were uncommon and similar in each arm.
CONCLUSIONS
Combination therapy appears to be safe, well tolerated and effective, and halves treatment duration of current recommendations.
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in patients living with Human-Immunodeficiency-Virus (HIV) present an increasingly important patient cohort in areas where both infections are endemic. Evidence for treatment is sparce, with no high-quality studies from the Indian sub-continent.
METHODS
This is a randomised open label, parallel arm phase-3 trial conducted within a single hospital in Patna, India. 150 patients aged =18 years with serologically confirmed HIV and parasitologically confirmed VL were randomly allocated to one of two treatment arms, either a total 40mg/kg intravenous liposomal amphotericin B(AmBisome) administered in 8 equal doses over 24-days, or a total 30mg/kg intravenous liposomal amphotericin B(AmBisome) administered in 6 equal doses given concomitantly with a total 1.4g oral miltefosine administered through two daily doses of 50mg over 14-days. The primary outcome was ITT relapse-free-survival at day-210, defined as absence of signs and symptoms of VL, or if symptomatic negative parasitological investigations.
FINDINGS
Among 243 patients assessed for eligibility, 150 were recruited between 2nd January 2017 and 5th April 2018, with no loss-to-follow-up. Relapse free survival at day-210 was 85%, (64/75; 95%CI 77-100) in the monotherapy arm, and 96%, (72/75;95%CI 90-100) in the combination arm. 19%(28/150) were infected with concurrent tuberculosis, divided equally between arms. Excluding those with concurrent tuberculosis, relapse free survival at day-210 was 90%, (55/61;95%CI 82-100) in the monotherapy and 97%, (59/61;95%CI 91-100) in the combination therapy arm. Serious adverse events were uncommon and similar in each arm.
CONCLUSIONS
Combination therapy appears to be safe, well tolerated and effective, and halves treatment duration of current recommendations.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023 August 21; Volume 3 (Issue 8); e0001538.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pgph.0001538
Chandna A, Mahajan R, Gautam P, Mwandigha L, Dittrich S, et al.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023 August 21; Volume 3 (Issue 8); e0001538.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pgph.0001538
The soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) has been proposed as a biomarker for risk stratification of patients presenting with acute infections. However, most studies evaluating suPAR have used platform-based assays, the accuracy of which may differ from point-of-care tests capable of informing timely triage in settings without established laboratory capacity. Using samples and data collected during a prospective cohort study of 425 patients presenting with moderate Covid-19 to two hospitals in India, we evaluated the analytical performance and prognostic accuracy of a commercially-available rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for suPAR, using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) as the reference standard. Our hypothesis was that the suPAR RDT might be useful for triage of patients presenting with moderate Covid-19 irrespective of its analytical performance when compared with the reference test. Although agreement between the two tests was limited (bias = -2.46 ng/mL [95% CI = -2.65 to -2.27 ng/mL]), prognostic accuracy to predict supplemental oxygen requirement was comparable, whether suPAR was used alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of RDT = 0.73 [95% CI = 0.68 to 0.79] vs. AUC of ELISA = 0.70 [95% CI = 0.63 to 0.76]; p = 0.12) or as part of a published multivariable prediction model (AUC of RDT-based model = 0.74 [95% CI = 0.66 to 0.83] vs. AUC of ELISA-based model = 0.72 [95% CI = 0.64 to 0.81]; p = 0.78). Lack of agreement between the RDT and ELISA in our cohort warrants further investigation and highlights the importance of assessing candidate point-of-care tests to ensure management algorithms reflect the assay that will ultimately be used to inform patient care. Availability of a quantitative point-of-care test for suPAR opens the door to suPAR-guided risk stratification of patients with Covid-19 and other acute infections in settings with limited laboratory capacity.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 June 20; Volume 18 (Issue 6); e0012242.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012242
Sundar S, Pandey K, Mondal D, Madhukar M, Kamal Topno R, et al.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 June 20; Volume 18 (Issue 6); e0012242.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012242
BACKGROUND
In Southeast Asia, treatment is recommended for all patients with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL). Adherence to the first-line regimen, twelve weeks of miltefosine (MF), is low and ocular toxicity has been observed with this exposure period. We assessed the safety and efficacy of two shorter-course treatments: liposomal amphotericin B (LAmB) alone and combined with MF.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
An open-label, phase II, randomized, parallel-arm, non-comparative trial was conducted in patients with parasitologically confirmed PKDL, 6 to ≤60 years. Patients were assigned to 20 mg/kg LAmB (total dose, in five injections over 15 days) alone or combined with allometric MF (3 weeks). The primary endpoint was definitive cure at 12 months, defined as complete resolution of papular and nodular lesions and >80% re-pigmentation of macular lesions. Definitive cure at 24 months was a secondary efficacy endpoint. 118/126 patients completed the trial. Definitive cure at 12 months was observed in 29% (18/63) patients receiving LAmB and 30% (19/63) receiving LAmB/MF (mITT), increasing to 58% and 66%, respectively, at 24 months. Most lesions had resolved/improved at 12 and 24 months for patients receiving LAmB (90%, 83%) and LAmB/MF (85%, 88%) by qualitative assessment. One death, unrelated to study drugs, was reported; no study drug-related serious adverse events were observed. The most frequent adverse drug reactions were MF-related vomiting and nausea, and LAmB-related hypokalaemia and infusion reactions. Most adverse events were mild; no ocular adverse events occurred.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
Both regimens are suitably safe and efficacious alternatives to long-course MF for PKDL in South Asia.
In Southeast Asia, treatment is recommended for all patients with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL). Adherence to the first-line regimen, twelve weeks of miltefosine (MF), is low and ocular toxicity has been observed with this exposure period. We assessed the safety and efficacy of two shorter-course treatments: liposomal amphotericin B (LAmB) alone and combined with MF.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
An open-label, phase II, randomized, parallel-arm, non-comparative trial was conducted in patients with parasitologically confirmed PKDL, 6 to ≤60 years. Patients were assigned to 20 mg/kg LAmB (total dose, in five injections over 15 days) alone or combined with allometric MF (3 weeks). The primary endpoint was definitive cure at 12 months, defined as complete resolution of papular and nodular lesions and >80% re-pigmentation of macular lesions. Definitive cure at 24 months was a secondary efficacy endpoint. 118/126 patients completed the trial. Definitive cure at 12 months was observed in 29% (18/63) patients receiving LAmB and 30% (19/63) receiving LAmB/MF (mITT), increasing to 58% and 66%, respectively, at 24 months. Most lesions had resolved/improved at 12 and 24 months for patients receiving LAmB (90%, 83%) and LAmB/MF (85%, 88%) by qualitative assessment. One death, unrelated to study drugs, was reported; no study drug-related serious adverse events were observed. The most frequent adverse drug reactions were MF-related vomiting and nausea, and LAmB-related hypokalaemia and infusion reactions. Most adverse events were mild; no ocular adverse events occurred.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
Both regimens are suitably safe and efficacious alternatives to long-course MF for PKDL in South Asia.