Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
BMC Research Notes. 2012 May 14; Volume 5 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/1756-0500-5-231
Guerra J, Mayana B, Djibo A, Manzo ML, Augusto E, et al.
BMC Research Notes. 2012 May 14; Volume 5 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/1756-0500-5-231
In 2008, Africa accounted for 94% of the cholera cases reported worldwide. Although the World Health Organization currently recommends the oral cholera vaccine in endemic areas for high-risk populations, its use in Sub-Saharan Africa has been limited. Here, we provide the principal results of an evaluation of the cholera surveillance system in the region of Maradi in Niger and an analysis of its data towards identifying high-risk areas for cholera.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 October 5; Volume 140 (Issue 8); 1356-1365.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268811002032
Bharti N, Broutin H, Grais RF, Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 2011 October 5; Volume 140 (Issue 8); 1356-1365.; DOI:10.1017/S0950268811002032
Throughout the African meningitis belt, meningococcal meningitis outbreaks occur only during the dry season. Measles in Niger exhibits similar seasonality, where increased population density during the dry season probably escalates measles transmission. Because meningococcal meningitis and measles are both directly transmitted, we propose that host aggregation also impacts the transmission of meningococcal meningitis. Although climate affects broad meningococcal meningitis seasonality, we focus on the less examined role of human density at a finer spatial scale. By analysing spatial patterns of suspected cases of meningococcal meningitis, we show fewer absences of suspected cases in districts along primary roads, similar to measles fadeouts in the same Nigerien metapopulation. We further show that, following periods during no suspected cases, districts with high reappearance rates of meningococcal meningitis also have high measles reintroduction rates. Despite many biological and epidemiological differences, similar seasonal and spatial patterns emerge from the dynamics of both diseases. This analysis enhances our understanding of spatial patterns and disease transmission and suggests hotspots for infection and potential target areas for meningococcal meningitis surveillance and intervention.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 September 22; Volume 277 (Issue 1695); DOI:10.1098/rspb.2010.0536
Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Bharti N, Grenfell BT, et al.
Proc Biol Sci. 2010 September 22; Volume 277 (Issue 1695); DOI:10.1098/rspb.2010.0536
Seasonally driven cycles of incidence have been consistently observed for a range of directly transmitted pathogens. Though frequently observed, the mechanism of seasonality for directly transmitted human pathogens is rarely well understood. Despite significant annual variation in magnitude, measles outbreaks in Niger consistently begin in the dry season and decline at the onset of the seasonal rains. We estimate the seasonal fluctuation in measles transmission rates for the 38 districts and urban centres of Niger, from 11 years of weekly incidence reports. We show that transmission rates are consistently in anti-phase to the rainfall patterns across the country. The strength of the seasonal forcing of transmission is not correlated with the latitudinal rainfall gradient, as would be expected if transmission rates were determined purely by environmental conditions. Rather, seasonal forcing is correlated with the population size, with larger seasonal fluctuation in more populous, urban areas. This pattern is consistent with seasonal variation in human density and contact rates due to agricultural cycles. The stronger seasonality in large cities drives deep inter-epidemic troughs and results in frequent local extinction of measles, which contrasts starkly to the conventional observation that large cities, by virtue of their size, act as reservoirs of measles.
Journal Article > Short ReportFull Text
Science. 2011 December 9; Volume 334 (Issue 6061); DOI:10.1126/science.1210554
Bharti N, Tatem AJ, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, et al.
Science. 2011 December 9; Volume 334 (Issue 6061); DOI:10.1126/science.1210554
Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Lancet. 2008 April 14; Volume 366 (Issue 9482); DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66792-X
Nathan N, Borel T, Djibo A, Evans D, Djibo S, et al.
Lancet. 2008 April 14; Volume 366 (Issue 9482); DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66792-X
BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s, more than 600,000 people had epidemic meningococcal meningitis, of whom 10% died. The current recommended treatment by WHO is short-course long-acting oily chloramphenicol. Continuation of the production of this drug is uncertain, so simple alternatives need to be found. We assessed whether the efficacy of single-dose treatment of ceftriaxone was non-inferior to that of oily chloramphenicol for epidemic meningococcal meningitis. METHODS: In 2003, we undertook a randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in nine health-care facilities in Niger. Participants with suspected disease who were older than 2 months were randomly assigned to receive either chloramphenicol or ceftriaxone. Primary outcome was treatment failure (defined as death or clinical failure) at 72 h, measured with intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. FINDINGS: Of 510 individuals with suspected disease, 247 received ceftriaxone, 256 received chloramphenicol, and seven were lost to follow-up. The treatment failure rate at 72 h for the intention-to-treat analysis was 9% (22 patients) for both drug groups (risk difference 0.3%, 90% CI -3.8 to 4.5). Case fatality rates and clinical failure rates were equivalent in both treatment groups (14 [6%] ceftriaxone vs 12 [5%] chloramphenicol). Results were also similar for both treatment groups in individuals with confirmed meningitis caused by Neisseria meningitidis. No adverse side-effects were reported. INTERPRETATION: Single-dose ceftriaxone provides an alternative treatment for epidemic meningococcal meningitis--its efficacy, ease of use, and low cost favour its use. National and international health partners should consider ceftriaxone as an alternative first-line treatment to chloramphenicol for epidemic meningococcal meningitis.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 2009 January 29; Volume 4 (Issue 1); e4313.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0004313
Lapidus N, Minetti A, Djibo A, Guerin JP, Hustache S, et al.
PLOS One. 2009 January 29; Volume 4 (Issue 1); e4313.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0004313
BACKGROUND
In 2006, the Médecins sans Frontières nutritional program in the region of Maradi (Niger) included 68,001 children 6-59 months of age with either moderate or severe malnutrition, according to the NCHS reference (weight-for-height<80% of the NCHS median, and/or mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm and/or presence of bipedal edema). Our objective was to identify baseline risk factors for death among children diagnosed with severe malnutrition using the newly introduced WHO growth standards. As the release of WHO growth standards changed the definition of severe malnutrition, which now includes many children formerly identified as moderately malnourished with the NCHS reference, studying this new category of children is crucial.
METHODOLOGY
Program monitoring data were collected from the medical records of all children admitted in the program. Data included age, sex, height, weight, MUAC, clinical signs on admission including edema, and type of discharge (recovery, death, and default/loss to follow up). Additional data included results of a malaria rapid diagnostic test due to Plasmodium falciparum (Paracheck) and whether the child was a resident of the region of Maradi or came from bordering Nigeria to seek treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was performed on a subset of 27,687 children meeting the new WHO growth standards criteria for severe malnutrition (weight-for-height<-3 Z score, mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm or presence of bipedal edema). We explored two different models: one with only basic anthropometric data and a second model that included perfunctory clinical signs.
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
In the first model including only weight, height, sex and presence of edema, the risk factors retained were the weight/height(1.84) ratio (OR: 5,774; 95% CI: [2,284; 14,594]) and presence of edema (7.51 [5.12; 11.0]). A second model, taking into account supplementary data from perfunctory clinical examination, identified other risk factors for death: apathy (9.71 [6.92; 13.6]), pallor (2.25 [1.25; 4.05]), anorexia (1.89 [1.35; 2.66]), fever>38.5 degrees C (1.83 [1.25; 2.69]), and age below 1 year (1.42 [1.01; 1.99]).
CONCLUSIONS
Although clinicians will continue to perform screening using clinical signs and anthropometry, these risk indicators may provide additional criteria for the assessment of absolute and relative risk of death. Better appraisal of the child's risk of death may help orientate the child towards either hospitalization or ambulatory care. As the transition from the NCHS growth reference to the WHO standards will increase the number of children classified as severely malnourished, further studies should explore means to identify children at highest risk of death within this group using simple and standardized indicators.
In 2006, the Médecins sans Frontières nutritional program in the region of Maradi (Niger) included 68,001 children 6-59 months of age with either moderate or severe malnutrition, according to the NCHS reference (weight-for-height<80% of the NCHS median, and/or mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm and/or presence of bipedal edema). Our objective was to identify baseline risk factors for death among children diagnosed with severe malnutrition using the newly introduced WHO growth standards. As the release of WHO growth standards changed the definition of severe malnutrition, which now includes many children formerly identified as moderately malnourished with the NCHS reference, studying this new category of children is crucial.
METHODOLOGY
Program monitoring data were collected from the medical records of all children admitted in the program. Data included age, sex, height, weight, MUAC, clinical signs on admission including edema, and type of discharge (recovery, death, and default/loss to follow up). Additional data included results of a malaria rapid diagnostic test due to Plasmodium falciparum (Paracheck) and whether the child was a resident of the region of Maradi or came from bordering Nigeria to seek treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was performed on a subset of 27,687 children meeting the new WHO growth standards criteria for severe malnutrition (weight-for-height<-3 Z score, mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm or presence of bipedal edema). We explored two different models: one with only basic anthropometric data and a second model that included perfunctory clinical signs.
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
In the first model including only weight, height, sex and presence of edema, the risk factors retained were the weight/height(1.84) ratio (OR: 5,774; 95% CI: [2,284; 14,594]) and presence of edema (7.51 [5.12; 11.0]). A second model, taking into account supplementary data from perfunctory clinical examination, identified other risk factors for death: apathy (9.71 [6.92; 13.6]), pallor (2.25 [1.25; 4.05]), anorexia (1.89 [1.35; 2.66]), fever>38.5 degrees C (1.83 [1.25; 2.69]), and age below 1 year (1.42 [1.01; 1.99]).
CONCLUSIONS
Although clinicians will continue to perform screening using clinical signs and anthropometry, these risk indicators may provide additional criteria for the assessment of absolute and relative risk of death. Better appraisal of the child's risk of death may help orientate the child towards either hospitalization or ambulatory care. As the transition from the NCHS growth reference to the WHO standards will increase the number of children classified as severely malnourished, further studies should explore means to identify children at highest risk of death within this group using simple and standardized indicators.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 April 1; Volume 20 (Issue 4); DOI:10.3201/eid2004.131328
Page AL, Jusot V, Mamaty AA, Adamou L, Kaplon J, et al.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 April 1; Volume 20 (Issue 4); DOI:10.3201/eid2004.131328
Knowledge of rotavirus epidemiology is necessary to make informed decisions about vaccine introduction and to evaluate vaccine impact. During April 2010–March 2012, rotavirus surveillance was conducted among 9,745 children <5 years of age in 14 hospitals/health centers in Niger, where rotavirus vaccine has not been introduced. Study participants had acute watery diarrhea and moderate to severe dehydration, and 20% of the children were enrolled in a nutrition program. Of the 9,745 children, 30.6% were rotavirus positive. Genotyping of a subset of positive samples showed a variety of genotypes during the first year, although G2P[4] predominated. G12 genotypes, including G12P[8], which has emerged as a predominant strain in western Africa, represented >80% of isolates during the second year. Hospitalization and death rates and severe dehydration among rotavirus case-patients did not differ during the 2 years. The emergence of G12P[8] warrants close attention to the characteristics of associated epidemics and possible prevention measures.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
J R Soc Interface. 2020 August 26; Volume 17 (Issue 169); DOI:10.1098/rsif.2020.0480
Blake A, Djibo A, Guindo O, Bharti N
J R Soc Interface. 2020 August 26; Volume 17 (Issue 169); DOI:10.1098/rsif.2020.0480
Measles is a major cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Current immunization strategies achieve low coverage in areas where transmission drivers differ substantially from those in high-income countries. A better understanding of measles transmission in areas with measles persistence will increase vaccination coverage and reduce ongoing transmission. We analysed weekly reported measles cases at the district level in Niger from 1995 to 2004 to identify underlying transmission mechanisms. We identified dominant periodicities and the associated spatial clustering patterns. We also investigated associations between reported measles cases and environmental drivers associated with human activities, particularly rainfall. The annual and 2-3-year periodicities dominated the reporting data spectrum. The annual periodicity was strong with contiguous spatial clustering, consistent with the latitudinal gradient of population density, and stable over time. The 2-3-year periodicities were weaker, unstable over time and had spatially fragmented clustering. The rainy season was associated with a lower risk of measles case reporting. The annual periodicity likely reflects seasonal agricultural labour migration, whereas the 2-3-year periodicity potentially results from multiple mechanisms such as reintroductions and vaccine coverage heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that improving vaccine coverage in seasonally mobile populations could reduce strong measles seasonality in Niger and across similar settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
N Engl J Med. 2017 March 23; Volume 376 (Issue 12); 1121-1130.; DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1609462
Isanaka S, Guindo O, Langendorf C, Matar Seck A, Plikaytis BD, et al.
N Engl J Med. 2017 March 23; Volume 376 (Issue 12); 1121-1130.; DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1609462
BACKGROUND
Each year, rotavirus gastroenteritis is responsible for about 37% of deaths from diarrhea among children younger than 5 years of age worldwide, with a disproportionate effect in sub-Saharan Africa.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Niger to evaluate the efficacy of a live, oral bovine rotavirus pentavalent vaccine (BRV-PV, Serum Institute of India) to prevent severe rotavirus gastroenteritis. Healthy infants received three doses of the vaccine or placebo at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Episodes of gastroenteritis were assessed through active and passive surveillance and were graded on the basis of the score on the Vesikari scale (which ranges from 0 to 20, with higher scores indicating more severe disease). The primary end point was the efficacy of three doses of vaccine as compared with placebo against a first episode of laboratory-confirmed severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (Vesikari score, ≥11) beginning 28 days after dose 3.
RESULTS
Among the 3508 infants who were included in the per-protocol efficacy analysis, there were 31 cases of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in the vaccine group and 87 cases in the placebo group (2.14 and 6.44 cases per 100 person-years, respectively), for a vaccine efficacy of 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.9 to 77.9). Similar efficacy was seen in the intention-to-treat analyses, which showed a vaccine efficacy of 69.1% (95% CI, 55.0 to 78.7). There was no significant between-group difference in the risk of adverse events, which were reported in 68.7% of the infants in the vaccine group and in 67.2% of those in the placebo group, or in the risk of serious adverse events (in 8.3% in the vaccine group and in 9.1% in the placebo group); there were 27 deaths in the vaccine group and 22 in the placebo group. None of the infants had confirmed intussusception.
CONCLUSIONS
Three doses of BRV-PV, an oral rotavirus vaccine, had an efficacy of 66.7% against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis among infants in Niger. (Funded by Médecins sans Frontières Operational Center and the Kavli Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02145000 .).
Each year, rotavirus gastroenteritis is responsible for about 37% of deaths from diarrhea among children younger than 5 years of age worldwide, with a disproportionate effect in sub-Saharan Africa.
METHODS
We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Niger to evaluate the efficacy of a live, oral bovine rotavirus pentavalent vaccine (BRV-PV, Serum Institute of India) to prevent severe rotavirus gastroenteritis. Healthy infants received three doses of the vaccine or placebo at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Episodes of gastroenteritis were assessed through active and passive surveillance and were graded on the basis of the score on the Vesikari scale (which ranges from 0 to 20, with higher scores indicating more severe disease). The primary end point was the efficacy of three doses of vaccine as compared with placebo against a first episode of laboratory-confirmed severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (Vesikari score, ≥11) beginning 28 days after dose 3.
RESULTS
Among the 3508 infants who were included in the per-protocol efficacy analysis, there were 31 cases of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in the vaccine group and 87 cases in the placebo group (2.14 and 6.44 cases per 100 person-years, respectively), for a vaccine efficacy of 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.9 to 77.9). Similar efficacy was seen in the intention-to-treat analyses, which showed a vaccine efficacy of 69.1% (95% CI, 55.0 to 78.7). There was no significant between-group difference in the risk of adverse events, which were reported in 68.7% of the infants in the vaccine group and in 67.2% of those in the placebo group, or in the risk of serious adverse events (in 8.3% in the vaccine group and in 9.1% in the placebo group); there were 27 deaths in the vaccine group and 22 in the placebo group. None of the infants had confirmed intussusception.
CONCLUSIONS
Three doses of BRV-PV, an oral rotavirus vaccine, had an efficacy of 66.7% against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis among infants in Niger. (Funded by Médecins sans Frontières Operational Center and the Kavli Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02145000 .).
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2006 October 1; Volume 100 (Issue 10); DOI:10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.03.002
Borel T, Rose AMC, Guillerm M, Sidikou F, Gerstl S, et al.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2006 October 1; Volume 100 (Issue 10); DOI:10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.03.002
There is a great need for a rapid diagnostic test to guide vaccine choice during outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis in resource-poor countries. During a randomised clinical trial conducted during an epidemic of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A in Niger in 2003, the sensitivity and specificity of the Pastorex latex agglutination test for this serogroup under optimal field conditions were assessed, using culture and/or PCR as the gold standard. Results from 484 samples showed a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI 85-91%) and a specificity of 93% (95% CI 90-95%). Pastorex could be a good alternative to current methods, as it can be performed in a local laboratory with rapid results and is highly specific. Sensitivity can be improved with prior microscopy where feasible. A study specifically to evaluate the Pastorex test under epidemic conditions, using laboratories with limited resources, is recommended.