Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 19 February 2025; Volume 19 (Issue 2); e0012867.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012867
Blake A, Walder A, Hanks EM, Welo PO, Luquero F, et al.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 19 February 2025; Volume 19 (Issue 2); e0012867.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012867
Cholera is a bacterial water-borne diarrheal disease transmitted via the fecal-oral route that causes high morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. It is preventable with vaccination, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) improvements. However, the impact of vaccination in endemic settings remains unclear. Cholera is endemic in the city of Kalemie, on the shore of Lake Tanganyika, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where both seasonal mobility and the lake, a potential environmental reservoir, may promote transmission. Kalemie received a vaccination campaign and WASH improvements in 2013–2016. We assessed the impact of this intervention to inform future control strategies in endemic settings. We fit compartmental models considering seasonal mobility and environmentally-based transmission. We estimated the number of cases the intervention avoided, and the relative contributions of the elements promoting local cholera transmission. We estimated the intervention avoided 5,259 cases (95% credible interval: 1,576.6–11,337.8) over 118 weeks. Transmission did not rely on seasonal mobility and was primarily environmentally-driven. Removing environmental exposure or contamination could control local transmission. Repeated environmental exposure could maintain high population immunity and decrease the impact of vaccination in similar endemic areas. Addressing environmental exposure and contamination should be the primary target of interventions in such settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 11 October 2013; Volume 142 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813002562
Grandesso F, Allan M, Jean-Simon PSJ, Boncy J, Blake A, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 11 October 2013; Volume 142 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1017/S0950268813002562
SUMMARY Two community-based density case-control studies were performed to assess risk factors for cholera transmission during inter-peak periods of the ongoing epidemic in two Haitian urban settings, Gonaives and Carrefour. The strongest associations were: close contact with cholera patients (sharing latrines, visiting cholera patients, helping someone with diarrhoea), eating food from street vendors and washing dishes with untreated water. Protective factors were: drinking chlorinated water, receiving prevention messages via television, church or training sessions, and high household socioeconomic level. These findings suggest that, in addition to contaminated water, factors related to direct and indirect inter-human contact play an important role in cholera transmission during inter-peak periods. In order to reduce cholera transmission in Haiti intensive preventive measures such as hygiene promotion and awareness campaigns should be implemented during inter-peak lulls, when prevention activities are typically scaled back.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
BMC Public Health. 22 August 2019; Volume 19 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/s12889-019-7500-z
Keating P, Carrion Martin AI, Blake A, Lechevalier P, Uzzeni F, et al.
BMC Public Health. 22 August 2019; Volume 19 (Issue 1); DOI:10.1186/s12889-019-7500-z
BACKGROUND:
Measles continues to circulate in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the country suffered from several important outbreaks over the last 5 years. Despite a large outbreak starting in the former province of Katanga in 2010 and the resulting immunization activities, another outbreak occurred in 2015 in this same region. We conducted measles seroprevalence surveys in four health zones (HZ) in the former Katanga Province in order to assess the immunity against measles in children 6 months to 14 years after the 2015 outbreak.
METHODS:
We conducted multi-stage cluster surveys stratified by age group in four HZs, Kayamba, Malemba-Nkulu, Fungurume, and Manono. The age groups were 6-11 months, 12-59 months, and 5-14 years in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, 6-59 months and 5-14 years in Manono and Fungurume. The serological status was measured on dried capillary blood spots collected systematically along with vaccination status (including routine Extended Program of Immunization (EPI), and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)) and previous self-reported history of suspected measles.
RESULTS:
Overall seroprevalence against measles was 82.7% in Kayamba, 97.6% in Malemba-Nkulu, 83.2% in Manono, and 74.4% in Fungurume, and it increased with age in all HZs. It was 70.7 and 93.8% in children 12-59 months in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, and 49.8 and 64.7% in children 6-59 months in Fungurume and Manono. The EPI coverage was low but varied across HZ. The accumulation of any type of vaccination against measles resulted in an overall vaccine coverage (VC) of at least 85% in children 12-59 months in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, 86.1 and 74.8% in children 6-59 months in Fungurume and Manono. Previous measles infection in 2015-early 2016 was more frequently reported in children aged 12-59 months or 6-59 months (depending on the HZ).
CONCLUSION:
The measured seroprevalence was consistent with the events that occurred in these HZs over the past few years. Measles seroprevalence might prove a valuable source of information to help adjust the timing of future SIAs and prioritizing support to the EPI in this region as long as the VC does not reach a level high enough to efficiently prevent epidemic flare-ups.
Measles continues to circulate in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the country suffered from several important outbreaks over the last 5 years. Despite a large outbreak starting in the former province of Katanga in 2010 and the resulting immunization activities, another outbreak occurred in 2015 in this same region. We conducted measles seroprevalence surveys in four health zones (HZ) in the former Katanga Province in order to assess the immunity against measles in children 6 months to 14 years after the 2015 outbreak.
METHODS:
We conducted multi-stage cluster surveys stratified by age group in four HZs, Kayamba, Malemba-Nkulu, Fungurume, and Manono. The age groups were 6-11 months, 12-59 months, and 5-14 years in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, 6-59 months and 5-14 years in Manono and Fungurume. The serological status was measured on dried capillary blood spots collected systematically along with vaccination status (including routine Extended Program of Immunization (EPI), and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)) and previous self-reported history of suspected measles.
RESULTS:
Overall seroprevalence against measles was 82.7% in Kayamba, 97.6% in Malemba-Nkulu, 83.2% in Manono, and 74.4% in Fungurume, and it increased with age in all HZs. It was 70.7 and 93.8% in children 12-59 months in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, and 49.8 and 64.7% in children 6-59 months in Fungurume and Manono. The EPI coverage was low but varied across HZ. The accumulation of any type of vaccination against measles resulted in an overall vaccine coverage (VC) of at least 85% in children 12-59 months in Kayamba and Malemba-Nkulu, 86.1 and 74.8% in children 6-59 months in Fungurume and Manono. Previous measles infection in 2015-early 2016 was more frequently reported in children aged 12-59 months or 6-59 months (depending on the HZ).
CONCLUSION:
The measured seroprevalence was consistent with the events that occurred in these HZs over the past few years. Measles seroprevalence might prove a valuable source of information to help adjust the timing of future SIAs and prioritizing support to the EPI in this region as long as the VC does not reach a level high enough to efficiently prevent epidemic flare-ups.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Epidemiol Infect. 13 March 2020; Volume 148; DOI:10.1017/S095026882000062X
Ferreras E, Blake A, Chewe O, Mwaba J, Zulu G, et al.
Epidemiol Infect. 13 March 2020; Volume 148; DOI:10.1017/S095026882000062X
We conducted a matched case-control (MCC), test-negative case-control (TNCC) and case-cohort study in 2016 in Lusaka, Zambia, following a mass vaccination campaign. Confirmed cholera cases served as cases in all three study designs. In the TNCC, control-subjects were cases with negative cholera culture and polymerase chain reaction results. Matched controls by age and sex were selected among neighbours of the confirmed cases in the MCC study. For the case-cohort study, we recruited a cohort of randomly selected individuals living in areas considered at-risk of cholera. We recruited 211 suspected cases (66 confirmed cholera cases and 145 non-cholera diarrhoea cases), 1055 matched controls and a cohort of 921. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was 88.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42.7–97.8) in the MCC study, 80.2% (95% CI: 16.9–95.3) in the TNCC design and 89.4% (95% CI: 64.6–96.9) in the case-cohort study. Three study designs confirmed the short-term effectiveness of single dose OCV. Major healthcare-seeking behaviour bias did not appear to affect our estimates. Most of the protection among vaccinated individuals could be attributed to the direct effect of the vaccine.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Trop Med Int Health. 31 May 2018; Volume 23 (Issue 8); 834-840.; DOI:10.1111/tmi.13084
Mwaba J, Ferreras E, Chizema Kawesha E, Mwimbe D, Tafirenyika F, et al.
Trop Med Int Health. 31 May 2018; Volume 23 (Issue 8); 834-840.; DOI:10.1111/tmi.13084
OBJECTIVE
To assess the performance of the SD Bioline Cholera Ag O1/O139 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) compared to a reference standard combining culture and PCR for the diagnosis of cholera cases during an outbreak.
METHODS
RDT and bacterial culture were performed on site using fresh stools collected from cholera suspected cases, and from stools enriched in alkaline peptone water. Dried stool samples on filter paper were tested for V. cholerae by PCR in Lusaka (as part of a laboratory technology transfer project) and at a reference laboratory in Paris, France. A sample was considered positive for cholera by the reference standard if any of the culture or PCR tests was positive for V. cholerae O1 or O139.
RESULTS
Among the 170 samples tested with SD Bioline and compared to the reference standard, the RDT showed a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI: 81.3-96.6) and specificity of 95.2% (95% CI: 89.1-98.4). After enrichment, the sensitivity was 95.5% (95% CI: 87.3-99.1) and specificity 100% (95% CI: 96.5-100).
CONCLUSION
The observed sensitivity and specificity were within recommendations set by the Global Task Force for Cholera Control on the use of cholera RDT (sensitivity = 90%; specificity = 85%). Although the sample size was small, our findings suggest that the SD Bioline RDT could be used in the field to rapidly alert public health officials to the likely presence of cholera cases when an outbreak is suspected.
To assess the performance of the SD Bioline Cholera Ag O1/O139 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) compared to a reference standard combining culture and PCR for the diagnosis of cholera cases during an outbreak.
METHODS
RDT and bacterial culture were performed on site using fresh stools collected from cholera suspected cases, and from stools enriched in alkaline peptone water. Dried stool samples on filter paper were tested for V. cholerae by PCR in Lusaka (as part of a laboratory technology transfer project) and at a reference laboratory in Paris, France. A sample was considered positive for cholera by the reference standard if any of the culture or PCR tests was positive for V. cholerae O1 or O139.
RESULTS
Among the 170 samples tested with SD Bioline and compared to the reference standard, the RDT showed a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI: 81.3-96.6) and specificity of 95.2% (95% CI: 89.1-98.4). After enrichment, the sensitivity was 95.5% (95% CI: 87.3-99.1) and specificity 100% (95% CI: 96.5-100).
CONCLUSION
The observed sensitivity and specificity were within recommendations set by the Global Task Force for Cholera Control on the use of cholera RDT (sensitivity = 90%; specificity = 85%). Although the sample size was small, our findings suggest that the SD Bioline RDT could be used in the field to rapidly alert public health officials to the likely presence of cholera cases when an outbreak is suspected.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 30 August 2019; Volume 14 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0219040
Ferreras E, Matopo B, Chizema Kawesha E, Chewe O, Mzyece H, et al.
PLOS One. 30 August 2019; Volume 14 (Issue 8); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0219040
BACKGROUND:
In April 2016, an emergency vaccination campaign using one dose of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) was organized in response to a cholera outbreak that started in Lusaka in February 2016. In December 2016, a second round of vaccination was conducted, with the objective of increasing the duration of protection, before the high-risk period for cholera transmission. We assessed vaccination coverage for the first and second rounds of the OCV campaign.
METHODS:
Vaccination coverage was estimated after each round from a sample selected from targeted-areas for vaccination using a cross-sectional survey in to establish the vaccination status of the individuals recruited. The study population included all individuals older than 12 months residing in the areas targeted for vaccination. We interviewed 505 randomly selected individuals after the first round and 442 after the second round. Vaccination status was ascertained either by vaccination card or verbal reporting. Households were selected using spatial random sampling.
RESULTS:
The vaccination coverage with two doses was 58.1% (25/43; 95%CI: 42.1-72.9) in children 1-5 years old, 59.5% (69/116; 95%CI: 49.9-68.5) in children 5-15 years old and 19.9% (56/281; 95%CI: 15.4-25.1) in adults above 15 years old. The overall dropout rate was 10.9% (95%CI: 8.1-14.1). Overall, 69.9% (n = 309/442; 95%CI: 65.4-74.1) reported to have received at least one OCV dose.
CONCLUSIONS:
The areas at highest risk of suffering cholera outbreaks were targeted for vaccination obtaining relatively high vaccine coverage after each round. However, the long delay between doses in areas subject to considerable population movement resulted in many individuals receiving only one OCV dose. Additional vaccination campaigns may be required to sustain protection over time in case of persistence of risk. Further evidence is needed to establish a maximum optimal interval time of a delayed second dose and variations in different settings.
In April 2016, an emergency vaccination campaign using one dose of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) was organized in response to a cholera outbreak that started in Lusaka in February 2016. In December 2016, a second round of vaccination was conducted, with the objective of increasing the duration of protection, before the high-risk period for cholera transmission. We assessed vaccination coverage for the first and second rounds of the OCV campaign.
METHODS:
Vaccination coverage was estimated after each round from a sample selected from targeted-areas for vaccination using a cross-sectional survey in to establish the vaccination status of the individuals recruited. The study population included all individuals older than 12 months residing in the areas targeted for vaccination. We interviewed 505 randomly selected individuals after the first round and 442 after the second round. Vaccination status was ascertained either by vaccination card or verbal reporting. Households were selected using spatial random sampling.
RESULTS:
The vaccination coverage with two doses was 58.1% (25/43; 95%CI: 42.1-72.9) in children 1-5 years old, 59.5% (69/116; 95%CI: 49.9-68.5) in children 5-15 years old and 19.9% (56/281; 95%CI: 15.4-25.1) in adults above 15 years old. The overall dropout rate was 10.9% (95%CI: 8.1-14.1). Overall, 69.9% (n = 309/442; 95%CI: 65.4-74.1) reported to have received at least one OCV dose.
CONCLUSIONS:
The areas at highest risk of suffering cholera outbreaks were targeted for vaccination obtaining relatively high vaccine coverage after each round. However, the long delay between doses in areas subject to considerable population movement resulted in many individuals receiving only one OCV dose. Additional vaccination campaigns may be required to sustain protection over time in case of persistence of risk. Further evidence is needed to establish a maximum optimal interval time of a delayed second dose and variations in different settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
J R Soc Interface. 26 August 2020; Volume 17 (Issue 169); DOI:10.1098/rsif.2020.0480
Blake A, Djibo A, Guindo O, Bharti N
J R Soc Interface. 26 August 2020; Volume 17 (Issue 169); DOI:10.1098/rsif.2020.0480
Measles is a major cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Current immunization strategies achieve low coverage in areas where transmission drivers differ substantially from those in high-income countries. A better understanding of measles transmission in areas with measles persistence will increase vaccination coverage and reduce ongoing transmission. We analysed weekly reported measles cases at the district level in Niger from 1995 to 2004 to identify underlying transmission mechanisms. We identified dominant periodicities and the associated spatial clustering patterns. We also investigated associations between reported measles cases and environmental drivers associated with human activities, particularly rainfall. The annual and 2-3-year periodicities dominated the reporting data spectrum. The annual periodicity was strong with contiguous spatial clustering, consistent with the latitudinal gradient of population density, and stable over time. The 2-3-year periodicities were weaker, unstable over time and had spatially fragmented clustering. The rainy season was associated with a lower risk of measles case reporting. The annual periodicity likely reflects seasonal agricultural labour migration, whereas the 2-3-year periodicity potentially results from multiple mechanisms such as reintroductions and vaccine coverage heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that improving vaccine coverage in seasonally mobile populations could reduce strong measles seasonality in Niger and across similar settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 31 January 2020; Volume 14 (Issue 1); e0007967.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007967
Sharp A, Blake A, Backx J, Panunzi I, Barrais R, et al.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 31 January 2020; Volume 14 (Issue 1); e0007967.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007967
Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) has increasingly been used as an outbreak control measure, but vaccine shortages limit its application. A two-dose OCV campaign targeting residents aged over 1 year was launched in three rural Communes of Southern Haiti during an outbreak following Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Door-to-door and fixed-site strategies were employed and mobile teams delivered vaccines to hard-to-reach communities. This was the first campaign to use the recently pre-qualified OCV, Euvichol. The study objective was to estimate post-campaign vaccination coverage in order to evaluate the campaign and guide future outbreak control strategies. We conducted a cluster survey with sampling based on random GPS points. We identified clusters of five households and included all members eligible for vaccination. Local residents collected data through face-to-face interviews. Coverage was estimated, accounting for the clustered sampling, and 95% confidence intervals calculated. 435 clusters, 2,100 households and 9,086 people were included (99% response rate). Across the three communes respectively, coverage by recall was: 80.7% (95% CI:76.8-84.1), 82.6% (78.1-86.4), and 82.3% (79.0-85.2) for two doses and 94.2% (90.8-96.4), 91.8% (87-94.9), and 93.8% (90.8-95.9) for at least one dose. Coverage varied by less than 9% across age groups and was similar among males and females. Participants obtained vaccines from door-to-door vaccinators (53%) and fixed sites (47%). Most participants heard about the campaign through community 'criers' (58%). Despite hard-to-reach communities, high coverage was achieved in all areas through combining different vaccine delivery strategies and extensive community mobilisation. Emergency OCV campaigns are a viable option for outbreak control and where possible multiple strategies should be used in combination. Euvichol will help alleviate the OCV shortage but effectiveness studies in outbreaks should be done.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Miller AC, Rohloff P, Blake A, Dhaenens E, Shaw L, et al.
5 December 2020; Volume 19; DOI:10.1186/s12942-020-00250-0
Background
Population-representative household survey methods require up-to-date sampling frames and sample designs that minimize time and cost of fieldwork especially in low- and middle-income countries. Traditional methods such as multi-stage cluster sampling, random-walk, or spatial sampling can be cumbersome, costly or inaccurate, leading to well-known biases. However, a new tool, Epicentre’s Geo-Sampler program, allows simple random sampling of structures, which can eliminate some of these biases. We describe the study design process, experiences and lessons learned using Geo-Sampler for selection of a population representative sample for a kidney disease survey in two sites in Guatemala.
Results
We successfully used Epicentre’s Geo-sampler tool to sample 650 structures in two semi-urban Guatemalan communities. Overall, 82% of sampled structures were residential and could be approached for recruitment. Sample selection could be conducted by one person after 30 min of training. The process from sample selection to creating field maps took approximately 40 h.
Conclusion
In combination with our design protocols, the Epicentre Geo-Sampler tool provided a feasible, rapid and lower-cost alternative to select a representative population sample for a prevalence survey in our semi-urban Guatemalan setting. The tool may work less well in settings with heavy arboreal cover or densely populated urban settings with multiple living units per structure. Similarly, while the method is an efficient step forward for including non-traditional living arrangements (people residing permanently or temporarily in businesses, religious institutions or other structures), it does not account for some of the most marginalized and vulnerable people in a population–the unhoused, street dwellers or people living in vehicles.
Population-representative household survey methods require up-to-date sampling frames and sample designs that minimize time and cost of fieldwork especially in low- and middle-income countries. Traditional methods such as multi-stage cluster sampling, random-walk, or spatial sampling can be cumbersome, costly or inaccurate, leading to well-known biases. However, a new tool, Epicentre’s Geo-Sampler program, allows simple random sampling of structures, which can eliminate some of these biases. We describe the study design process, experiences and lessons learned using Geo-Sampler for selection of a population representative sample for a kidney disease survey in two sites in Guatemala.
Results
We successfully used Epicentre’s Geo-sampler tool to sample 650 structures in two semi-urban Guatemalan communities. Overall, 82% of sampled structures were residential and could be approached for recruitment. Sample selection could be conducted by one person after 30 min of training. The process from sample selection to creating field maps took approximately 40 h.
Conclusion
In combination with our design protocols, the Epicentre Geo-Sampler tool provided a feasible, rapid and lower-cost alternative to select a representative population sample for a prevalence survey in our semi-urban Guatemalan setting. The tool may work less well in settings with heavy arboreal cover or densely populated urban settings with multiple living units per structure. Similarly, while the method is an efficient step forward for including non-traditional living arrangements (people residing permanently or temporarily in businesses, religious institutions or other structures), it does not account for some of the most marginalized and vulnerable people in a population–the unhoused, street dwellers or people living in vehicles.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 7 May 2018; Volume 12 (Issue 5); DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006369
Massing LA, Aboubakar S, Blake A, Page AL, Cohuet S, et al.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 7 May 2018; Volume 12 (Issue 5); DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006369
Oral cholera vaccines are primarily recommended by the World Health Organization for cholera control in endemic countries. However, the number of cholera vaccines currently produced is very limited and examples of OCV use in endemic countries, and especially in urban settings, are scarce. A vaccination campaign was organized by Médecins Sans Frontières and the Ministry of Health in a highly endemic area in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study aims to describe the vaccine coverage achieved with this highly targeted vaccination campaign and the acceptability among the vaccinated communities.