Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Public Health Nutr. 1 June 2023; Volume 26 (Issue 6); 1210-1221.; DOI:10.1017/S1368980023000149
Briend A, Myatt M, Berkley JA, Black RE, Boyd EM, et al.
Public Health Nutr. 1 June 2023; Volume 26 (Issue 6); 1210-1221.; DOI:10.1017/S1368980023000149
OBJECTIVE
To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children.
DESIGN
Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations.
SETTING
Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia.
PARTICIPANTS
Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas.
RESULTS
For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone.
CONCLUSIONS
Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.
To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children.
DESIGN
Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations.
SETTING
Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia.
PARTICIPANTS
Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas.
RESULTS
For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone.
CONCLUSIONS
Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Public Health Nutr. 3 February 2023; Volume 26 (Issue 4); 803-819.; DOI:10.1017/S136898002300023X
Khara T, Myatt M, Sadler K, Bahwere P, Berkley JA, et al.
Public Health Nutr. 3 February 2023; Volume 26 (Issue 4); 803-819.; DOI:10.1017/S136898002300023X
OBJECTIVE
To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications.
DESIGN
A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled.
SETTING
Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread.
PARTICIPANTS
Children aged 6 to 59 months.
RESULTS
Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) <−2), (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm), (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) and (WAZ < −3) had the highest informedness in predicting mortality. A combined case definition (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) was better at predicting deaths associated with weight-for-height Z-score <−3 and concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) than the single WAZ < −3 case definition. After the assessment of all criteria, the combined case definition performed best. The simulated workload for programmes admitting based on MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3, when adjusted with a proxy for required intensity and/or duration of treatment, was 1·87 times larger than programmes admitting on MUAC < 115 mm alone.
CONCLUSIONS
A combined case definition detects nearly all deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits suggesting that therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact (prevent mortality and improve coverage) by using it. There remain operational questions to examine further before wide-scale adoption can be recommended.
To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications.
DESIGN
A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled.
SETTING
Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread.
PARTICIPANTS
Children aged 6 to 59 months.
RESULTS
Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) <−2), (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm), (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) and (WAZ < −3) had the highest informedness in predicting mortality. A combined case definition (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) was better at predicting deaths associated with weight-for-height Z-score <−3 and concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) than the single WAZ < −3 case definition. After the assessment of all criteria, the combined case definition performed best. The simulated workload for programmes admitting based on MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3, when adjusted with a proxy for required intensity and/or duration of treatment, was 1·87 times larger than programmes admitting on MUAC < 115 mm alone.
CONCLUSIONS
A combined case definition detects nearly all deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits suggesting that therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact (prevent mortality and improve coverage) by using it. There remain operational questions to examine further before wide-scale adoption can be recommended.
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00133-1
Gaffey MF, Waldman RJ, Blanchet K, Amsalu R, Capobianco E, et al.
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00133-1
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
PLOS One. 12 February 2020 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0228151.
Frison S, Angood C, Khara T, Bahwere P, Black RE, et al.
PLOS One. 12 February 2020 (Issue 2); DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0228151.
BACKGROUND:
An estimated 49.5 million children under five years of age are wasted. There is a lack of robust studies on effective interventions to prevent wasting. The aim of this study was to identify and prioritise the main outstanding research questions in relation to wasting prevention to inform future research agendas.
METHOD:
A research prioritisation exercise was conducted following the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative method. Identified research gaps were compiled from multiple sources, categorised into themes and streamlined into forty research questions by an expert group. A survey was then widely circulated to assess research questions according to four criteria. An overall research priority score was calculated to rank questions.
FINDINGS:
The prioritised questions have a strong focus on interventions. The importance of the early stages of life in determining later experiences of wasting was highlighted. Other important themes included the identification of at-risk infants and young children early in the progression of wasting and the roles of existing interventions and the health system in prevention.
DISCUSSION:
These results indicate consensus to support more research on the pathways to wasting encompassing the in-utero environment, on the early period of infancy and on the process of wasting and its early identification. They also reinforce how little is known about impactful interventions for the prevention of wasting.
CONCLUSION:
This exercise provides a five-year investment case for research that could most effectively improve on-the-ground programmes to prevent child wasting and inform supportive policy change.
An estimated 49.5 million children under five years of age are wasted. There is a lack of robust studies on effective interventions to prevent wasting. The aim of this study was to identify and prioritise the main outstanding research questions in relation to wasting prevention to inform future research agendas.
METHOD:
A research prioritisation exercise was conducted following the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative method. Identified research gaps were compiled from multiple sources, categorised into themes and streamlined into forty research questions by an expert group. A survey was then widely circulated to assess research questions according to four criteria. An overall research priority score was calculated to rank questions.
FINDINGS:
The prioritised questions have a strong focus on interventions. The importance of the early stages of life in determining later experiences of wasting was highlighted. Other important themes included the identification of at-risk infants and young children early in the progression of wasting and the roles of existing interventions and the health system in prevention.
DISCUSSION:
These results indicate consensus to support more research on the pathways to wasting encompassing the in-utero environment, on the early period of infancy and on the process of wasting and its early identification. They also reinforce how little is known about impactful interventions for the prevention of wasting.
CONCLUSION:
This exercise provides a five-year investment case for research that could most effectively improve on-the-ground programmes to prevent child wasting and inform supportive policy change.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
Science. 14 May 2009; Volume 324 (Issue 5929); DOI:10.1126/science.1173890
Bhattacharya S, Black RE, Bourgeois L, Clemens JD, Cravioto A, et al.
Science. 14 May 2009; Volume 324 (Issue 5929); DOI:10.1126/science.1173890
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6
Wise PH, Shiel A, Southard N, Bendavid E, Welsh J, et al.
Lancet. 6 February 2021; Volume 397 (Issue 10273); DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6
The nature of armed conflict throughout the world is intensely dynamic. Consequently, the protection of non-combatants and the provision of humanitarian services must continually adapt to this changing conflict environment. Complex political affiliations, the systematic use of explosive weapons and sexual violence, and the use of new communication technology, including social media, have created new challenges for humanitarian actors in negotiating access to affected populations and security for their own personnel. The nature of combatants has also evolved as armed, non-state actors might have varying motivations, use different forms of violence, and engage in a variety of criminal activities to generate requisite funds. New health threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and new capabilities, such as modern trauma care, have also created new challenges and opportunities for humanitarian health provision. In response, humanitarian policies and practices must develop negotiation and safety capabilities, informed by political and security realities on the ground, and guidance from affected communities. More fundamentally, humanitarian policies will need to confront a changing geopolitical environment, in which traditional humanitarian norms and protections might encounter wavering support in the years to come.