Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Int J Epidemiol. 2000 October 1
Kaninda AV, Belanger F, Lewis R, Batchassi E, Aplogan A, et al.
Int J Epidemiol. 2000 October 1
BACKGROUND: Early outbreak detection is necessary for control of meningococcal meningitis epidemics. A weekly incidence of 15 cases per 100 000 inhabitants averaged over 2 consecutive weeks is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for detection of meningitis epidemics in Africa. This and other thresholds are tested for ability to predict outbreaks and timeliness for control measures. METHODS: Meningitis cases recorded for 1990-1997 in health centres of northern Togo were reviewed. Weekly and annual incidences were determined for each district. Ability of different weekly incidence thresholds to detect outbreaks was assessed according to sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. The number of cases potentially prevented by reactive vaccination in 1997 was calculated for each threshold. RESULTS: Outbreaks occurred in 1995-1996 and in 1996-1997. The WHO-recommended threshold had good specificity but low sensitivity. Thresholds of 10 and 7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in one week had sensitivity and specificity of 100% and increased the time available for intervention by more than one or two weeks, respectively. A maximum of 65% of cases could have been prevented during the 1997 epidemic, with up to 8% fewer cases prevented for each week of delay in achieving vaccine coverage. CONCLUSIONS: In northern Togo, thresholds of 7 or 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week were excellent predictors of meningitis epidemics and allowed more time for a reactive vaccination strategy than current recommendations.
Journal Article > ReviewFull Text
E Clinical Medicine. 2024 March 11; Volume 70; 102508.; DOI:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102508
Ruef M, Emonet S, Merglen A, Dewez JE, Obama BM, et al.
E Clinical Medicine. 2024 March 11; Volume 70; 102508.; DOI:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102508
BACKGROUND
The increasing resistance of Enterobacterales to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a major public health concern. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies to estimate the carriage prevalence of Enterobacterales not susceptible to third-generation cephalosporins or carbapenems among paediatric populations in SSA.
METHODS
We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and cohort studies to estimate the prevalence of childhood (0-18 years old) carriage of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCR-E) or carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) in SSA. Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies published from 1 January 2005 to 1 June 2022. Studies with <10 occurrences per bacteria, case reports, and meta-analyses were excluded. Quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Meta-analyses of prevalences and odds ratios were calculated using generalised linear mixed-effects models. Heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics. The protocol is available on PROSPERO (CRD42021260157).
FINDINGS
Of 1111 studies examined, 40 met our inclusion criteria, reporting on the carriage prevalence of Enterobacterales in 9408 children. The pooled carriage prevalence of ESCR-E was 32.2% (95% CI: 25.2%-40.2%). Between-study heterogeneity was high (I2 = 96%). The main sources of bias pertained to participant selection and the heterogeneity of the microbiological specimens. Carriage proportions were higher among sick children than healthy ones (35.7% vs 16.9%). The pooled proportion of nosocomial acquisition was 53.8% (95% CI: 32.1%-74.1%) among the 922 children without ESCR-E carriage at hospital admission. The pooled odds ratio of ESCR-E carriage after antibiotic treatment within the previous 3 months was 3.20 (95% CI: 2.10-4.88). The proportion of pooled carbapenem-resistant for Enterobacterales was 3.6% (95% CI: 0.7%-16.4%).
INTERPRETATION
This study suggests that ESCR-E carriage among children in SSA is frequent. Microbiology capacity and infection control must be scaled-up to reduce the spread of those multidrug-resistant microorganisms.
The increasing resistance of Enterobacterales to third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a major public health concern. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies to estimate the carriage prevalence of Enterobacterales not susceptible to third-generation cephalosporins or carbapenems among paediatric populations in SSA.
METHODS
We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and cohort studies to estimate the prevalence of childhood (0-18 years old) carriage of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (ESCR-E) or carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) in SSA. Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies published from 1 January 2005 to 1 June 2022. Studies with <10 occurrences per bacteria, case reports, and meta-analyses were excluded. Quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Meta-analyses of prevalences and odds ratios were calculated using generalised linear mixed-effects models. Heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics. The protocol is available on PROSPERO (CRD42021260157).
FINDINGS
Of 1111 studies examined, 40 met our inclusion criteria, reporting on the carriage prevalence of Enterobacterales in 9408 children. The pooled carriage prevalence of ESCR-E was 32.2% (95% CI: 25.2%-40.2%). Between-study heterogeneity was high (I2 = 96%). The main sources of bias pertained to participant selection and the heterogeneity of the microbiological specimens. Carriage proportions were higher among sick children than healthy ones (35.7% vs 16.9%). The pooled proportion of nosocomial acquisition was 53.8% (95% CI: 32.1%-74.1%) among the 922 children without ESCR-E carriage at hospital admission. The pooled odds ratio of ESCR-E carriage after antibiotic treatment within the previous 3 months was 3.20 (95% CI: 2.10-4.88). The proportion of pooled carbapenem-resistant for Enterobacterales was 3.6% (95% CI: 0.7%-16.4%).
INTERPRETATION
This study suggests that ESCR-E carriage among children in SSA is frequent. Microbiology capacity and infection control must be scaled-up to reduce the spread of those multidrug-resistant microorganisms.